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If the Cronulla players hold their nerve, they will win the NRL grand final.
But if they even only slightly lack the courage of their convictions, Melbourne will capitalise and add to the grand final agony for the Sharks.
Both teams were impressive in winning their preliminary finals. Cronulla looked the strongest side and when you combine that with the fact the Storm have to leave their Melbourne comfort zone, things are aligning nicely for the Sharks.
The Storm have had the luxury of playing their last four games at home at AAMI Park – the final two rounds of the regular season and two finals matches.
They are a great side who are obviously capable of winning anywhere, but there is probably at least a tiny advantage to the Sharks in the fact the Storm have to leave home after being settled down there for five weeks now when you include the week off they had during the finals.
But it won’t matter if the Sharks aren’t prepared to back themselves.
You can’t reasonably expect to beat Melbourne by playing the percentages. You might win sometimes, but the odds are low. You have to be prepared to attack them from a distance, move them around in defence and stop them from being so dominant in the ruck.
The best example of that tactic being used successfully this season was when the Raiders did it in beating the Storm 22-8 in Canberra in Round 23.
But the Raiders didn’t repeat that tactic well enough in their preliminary final against the Storm on Saturday night, and ultimately paid the price.
When Raiders fullback Jack Wighton was correctly sin-binned for a dumb play in delaying the play-the-ball a bit too long midway through the second half, the Storm struck as they know only too well how to do.
They increased the pace of the game and took advantage of the 13 men against 12 situation to score a try and increase their lead from 8-6 to 12-6.
Cameron Smith missed with the conversion attempt, but a few minutes later another dumb Raiders play – this time ill-discipline from hooker Josh Hodgson – led to a Smith penalty goal and a 14-6 lead.
The Storm strangle games from there. The Raiders, to their credit, kept coming and made it uncomfortable for the Storm for the last few minutes by cutting their lead to 14-12, but that was it.
Congratulations to the Storm, they deserved to win in the end because they played the smarter game, but the result could have easily been different had the Raiders pushed the Storm harder after getting in front with the first try of the game.
You have to challenge the Storm from the start of the game and you’ve got to keep challenging them. I don’t mean go crazy and take stupid risks, but you also can’t ease off a bit and wait to see what happens just because it’s close. If you do that, the Storm will get you almost every time.
Of course, you’ve got to have the ammunition to fire at the Storm.
The Sharks have got that, just like the Raiders did – but they mustn’t misfire.
Cronulla refused to die wondering against North Queensland at Allianz Stadium on Friday night. They went at them from the start, got control of the game and never gave it up.
Apart from three late consolation tries to the Cowboys in the last ten minutes, when Cronulla had presumably begun thinking about the grand final, the 32-20 win to the Sharks was a carve-up.
The Sharks can win again on grand final day, as long as they don’t blink. It’s finally their time. Harold Holt, come on down.
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