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Is it just me but does it feel like the mob is circling, with pitchforks at the ready – all pointing at Michael Cheika?
Well, before we pick up our stakes, let’s take a step back for a second. Yes, Australia lost four times to England this year with seemingly little change in strategy, but do we really need to hear the old cliché regarding the definition of insanity all over again?
Let’s take a moment to unpack what Cheika did try and get in place.
Something we all know is that Cheika is a businessmen, a highly successful businessman. And a key to success in any business is knowing your strengths, and just as importantly, knowing your weaknesses. And yes, you can point to the four losses above and ask me where that awareness of weaknesses is evident.
It’s clear that Cheika believes his key strength and aim should be nurturing Australia’s ball-in-hand attacking play. So let’s have a quick look at his back-lines he played during the year.
| Game | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| England | Phipps | Foley | Horne | Kerevi | Kuridrani | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| England | Phipps | Foley | Horne | Kerevi | Kuridrani | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| England | Phipps | Foley | Horne | Toomua | Kuridrani | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| New Zealand | Genia | Foley | Haylett-Petty | Giteau | Kuridrani | Ashley-Cooper | Folau |
| New Zealand | Genia | Cooper | Haylett-Petty | Foley | Kerevi | Ashley-Cooper | Folau |
| Argentina | Genia | Cooper | Hodge | Foley | Kerevi | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| South Africa | Genia | Cooper | Hodge | Foley | Kerevi | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| South Africa | Genia | Cooper | Hodge | Foley | Kerevi | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| Argentina | Genia | Cooper | Hodge | Foley | Kerevi | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| New Zealand | Phipps | Foley | Speight | Hodge | Kerevi | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| Wales | Phipps | Foley | Speight | Hodge | Kuridrani | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| Scotland | Genia | Foley | Speight | Hodge | Kuridrani | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| France | Genia | Cooper | Speight | Godwin | Kuridrani | Naivalu | Morahan |
| Ireland | Genia | Foley | Speight | Hodge | Kuridrani | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
| England | Phipps | Foley | Naivalu | Hodge | Kuridrani | Haylett-Petty | Folau |
All I’ll say is it’s not called the Giteau Law for nothing. What is clear from the above is that in the first two Tests against England, Cheika went away from his favoured position of having a play-maker at 12. Or rather we should say, someone who can be another kicking option. Since those first two Tests, we haven’t seen him go back on that for the rest of the year.
So with quite a few calls for a more New Zealand or South African 12, ala Samu Kerevi, and when considering that Cheika is apparently so focused on all-out attack, why does he keep on going back to wanting a 12 who can kick the ball?
After the brief hard-running Kerevi experiment was put to bed, many questioned the decision to play Foley at 12 as it seemed clear that he wasn’t comfortable in this role. Perhaps he was using this time to blood a certain Reece Hodge, initially at left wing. Cheika quickly listened to the angry mob, and has since been persisting with Hodge at 12 instead. I’d say it’s no coincidence that Mick Byrne has described Hodge as one of the best kicks he’s seen and would like to see him get involved in more field kicking.
Hodge is only 22 and, although you get the feeling Cheika will bring a fit Kurtley Beale back into the mix next year as his play-maker 12, it doesn’t look like Hodge is going to disappear anytime soon.
The next thing you will see is that, besides when Adam Ashley-Cooper was fit or when he was blooding Hodge, he has preferred an out-and-out winger as his left wing. As Nicholas Bishop has previously pointed out, this winger often falls into the defensive channel with the fly half or inside centre then covering the back. You will also see that Cheika has then never been willing to compromise on having a right wing that can kick via Ashley-Cooper or Haylett-Petty. This is a strategy similar to that used by the All-Blacks with having two fullbacks in their back three.
Now, I’ll be the first to say that I am no Nicholas Bishop, but during the 2014 Rugby Championship game in Cape Town, the Springboks utilised Willie Le Roux’s left boot to peg Israel Folau back in his 22, mainly up against Australia’s right-hand touchline.
When returning these kicks, many of these resulted in large territorial gains for the Springboks, owing to the tight angle on the right hand touchline.
Even though this was a month before Cheika’s time as coach, and that it was only Folau’s second season playing union, I believe Cheika would have sat up and taken notice. He’s ensured that he always has a kicker on that side of the park who can either get large distance on an in-field kick or has greater accuracy in getting greater distance on touch finders.
This is also just my opinion, but I feel this may be another reason it is a good idea to keep Folau away from the right wing position at the moment, purely as a defensive kicker.
Additionally, if you watch footage of him on attack, how often doesn’t he absolutely smoke players by rounding them in or around that 13 channel – where 15 gives him the freedom and space to do this. Why not 13 then? Kuridrani hasn’t been too shabby at all lately but I could definitely still see Folau there eventually – in only three seasons of union, as scary as it is, he’s still learning and improving all the time.
Outside of the kicking options above, Will Genia is always a shoe-in when available, adding further depth.
When looking at stats regarding field kicks per match, Australia usually kicks less than their opponents. However, it is clear that Cheika has been focusing on making these options available, it’s just not a quick fix. Since those first two England tests where the weakness was exposed badly, he’s appointed Mick Byrne and now generally tries to have a 9, 10, 12, 14 and 15 who are all capable field kickers and usually tries to have three kickers at the back on defence.
Maybe we just need to accept that it’ll take players like Reece Hodge and Dane Haylett-Petty time to grow into their roles.
So, while we take some time sharpening our stakes maybe we can turn our attention to two different clichés, ‘you can’t buy experience’, and ‘practice makes perfect’.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.