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Here at The Roar we won’t pussyfoot around, even while others do. I’ll say it straight: Hawthorn are gone.
Going back to late last year, the Hawks have lost five of their last six games, with the win coming over Collingwood by a point in the final minute. The end isn’t coming. It’s already here.
You’ll hear things like “I’m not prepared to write them off just yet” and “you can never write off a champion team”.
Actually, you can write off a champion team when they’re too old, too slow, and not nearly as good, fluent or skillful as they used to be.
Alastair Clarkson claims to have the players on his list to win another premiership, but it’s doubtful he believes it. Those at club land often can’t see the forest for the trees, but Clarkson has shown nothing but 20/20 vision in his time at the helm of the Hawks. He’s certainly not talking about this year.
The question is whether unceremoniously dumping Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis was part of a carefully crafted master plan, or a drowning man looking for a vine and clutching a snake. Jaegar O’Meara and Tom Mitchell were to be acquired whatever the cost.
Disposal for disposal and clearance for clearance, Tom Mitchell and O’Meara are over-delivering against the output of the veterans they have effectively replaced, and will likely continue to do so. Mitchell is a ball magnet who is relishing the chance to lead a midfield. O’Meara will get better as the season goes on.
But T. Mitchell lacks the absolute polish and gamecraft of S. Mitchell or Lewis, particularly given the precision style Hawthorn tries to play, while O’Meara is coming from a long way back.
The Hawks only have four players aged 30 and older, but at their peak they were all crucial performers of high standing in the AFL world, and irreplaceable.
Josh Gibson is a dual best and fairest winner in premiership years, but has lost crucial speed. Luke Hodge is the inspirational triple premiership captain who can’t shape games as he once did. Shaun Burgoyne has been the clutch performer in countless close games and big matches, but looks a step behind in the early part of this season. Hunger is an issue for all.
Jarryd Roughead is the new skipper, but has looked exactly as rusty as could be expected from a man who has missed a year of football fighting cancer. His best footy is in the past, not the future.
Hawthorn have played 18 finals since the start of 2011. That’s almost an extra season of footy played at a higher intensity than regular home and away games. It must take a toll. It has taken a toll. Bodies take a battering. Hunger disappears.
Grant Birchall is an old 29, and has a broken jaw to show for it. Isaac Smith and Liam Shiels were another two beaten up by Adelaide last Saturday, and ended the game limping. The Hawks used to be the enforcers, but are now the bullied.
James Frawley will start struggling more as the team around him does. Paul Puopolo’s influence will be diminished with his midfield not generating high quality inside 50s.
Smith, Shiels and Ben Stratton’s limitations are starting to show. Cyril Rioli hasn’t turned up two games in, and appears to be struggling for motivation. Ben McEvoy isn’t in the top dozen ruckmen in the competition.
Taylor Duryea and Ryan Schoenmakers are premiership players in their mid-twenties, and were dropped after Round 1. A lot of AFL players are made to look better by the quality around them, and some of them even get a medal out of it.
James Sicily and Billy Hartung both turned 22 in January, and were expected to step up this year, but were also dropped after one game. There’s still hope for Sicily, but it will be a surprise if Hartung ever truly makes it. He’s four years in, is one of the most outside players in the competition in a side screaming for run, and he still can’t nail down a spot. The penny should have dropped by now.
Hawthorn’s premiership success under Alastair Clarkson was built on pristine ball movement off the back of the 18 players on the field moving as a single-celled organism in both attack and defence.
Last year, opposition teams were beating the Hawks at the coal-face, denying them first opportunity to gain access to the ball. Now, even if they do win it, they’re unable to control the ball as they once did. Will Langford could barely cut ribbon to ribbons, let alone opposition sides.
Hawthorn have worse players than they did at their peak, either through the old age of those that took them to glory, or the inexperience of those that have replaced the players that are gone.
2017 is the year of speed and pressure. The Hawks don’t have any of the former, and are struggling to both apply and withstand the latter.
Of those that made the finals last year, Hawthorn will only be better than North this year, and that’s a maybe. Essendon showed in Round 1 they have overtaken them. Melbourne has certainly gone past them. St Kilda too. Port appears to be have the right stuff again.
Will the Hawks be playing finals? Possibly, because anything is, but unlikely. In fact, let’s face it, it’s not going to happen. A premiership this year? No chance.