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Round 13 of the NRL season is complete, and already some teams are up against it to qualify for the finals, whereas sides like the Storm and Dragons are looking good.
I’m basing this on teams needing 14 wins to play finals football, which means they will finish on 32 points when the two byes are factored in.
Teams have played finals with fewer competition points before. The Titans qualified for the finals last year on 27 points, but were five points adrift of seventh and were eliminated by the Broncos in week one.
Storm: Sitting atop the ladder on 22 points with another bye to come, Craig Bellamy’s men are almost certainties to play finals football and on current form and should finish inside the top four, with the possibility of grabbing the minor premiership.
Dragons: The Red V are in a great position, and six wins from their final 12 games – a pretty easy ask – plus a bye will have them finish on 32 points. They should join the Storm inside the top four.
Sharks: On 18 points and yet to receive a bye, the Sharks are in great shape, and it would take a spectacular implosion for them not to play finals football.
Roosters: Like the Sharks, they sit on 18 points with two byes up their sleeve and look odds-on to play finals football.
Broncos: Brisbane traditionally struggle around Origin time, and they need six wins from their remaining 11 games to reach my magical 32. On current form, that’s no guarantee.
Cowboys: Without Johnathan Thurston, they are nowhere near as potent and they need more from the likes of Coote and Morgan. Winning seven of their remaining 12 games to hit 32 points is a must.
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
But what about the teams that are limping home? Some desperately need to find form to have any chance of playing finals. These are the teams that may sneak in on 28 or 30 points but will go no further in the finals.
Sea Eagles: It’s hard to get a read on the Sea Eagles and they are really struggling at Lottoland, winning just one from six. To finish on 28 points they need to find another five wins from their remaining 11 games.
Eels: They paid big bucks for Mitchell Moses and thus far aren’t getting great value for money – they need Corey Norman back as soon as possible. Working in their favour is that they still have two byes, but they’ll need to be more consistent over the back half of the season.
Raiders: A loss to the Sea Eagles on Sunday leaves them needing to win eight from their final 11 games, along with their remaining byes, to hit 32 points.
Now we hit four teams on ten points in the Panthers, Bulldogs, Titans and Warriors. It would take a massive form reversal for these sides to challenge for a top eight spot, and even then, I can’t see any of them finishing higher than seventh.
Panthers: The pre-season favourites are floundering down in tenth position and need seven wins from their last 12 games, with their second bye, just to finish on 28 points, a tough ask.
Bulldogs: Have stumbled their way to five wins all season and won’t come close to making the top six but could sneak into the eight if they get their act together. Having two byes left will help.
Titans: Eight wins from 12 games plus a second bye gets them to 28 points. Hard to see them achieving this and they need much more from Jarryd Hayne to have any chance
Warriors: Have the talent to be sitting inside the top four but find themselves down in 12th. If they hit form anything could happen, but they remain as inconsistent as ever. Points differential always plays a role and -51 isn’t a good look when you need to win seven from your last 11 games.
(AAP Image/David Rowland)
Now the also-rans – I’m prepared to say the Tigers, Rabbitohs and Knights won’t play finals football in 2017, even with another 14 rounds to go.
Rabbitohs: Have looked ineffective all season and seem uninterested. Simply making up the numbers.
Tigers: Showed signs of their potential against the Dragons but lacked the ability to win a game that was there for the taking. James Tedesco is great and Tuimoala Lolohea is a good addition so they may jag a few more wins yet, but will finish well outside the top eight
Knights: They are a little better this year, but are still a couple of years away from playing finals. I see them winning a few more games this season, but there isn’t much else to look forward to.
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