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The Australian cricket media seems to have already decided the Ashes are ours – and maybe it’ll turn out that way. Or, maybe, it won’t.
We’re actually a very good chance to lose the Ashes, for reasons I will pull apart today and tomorrow.
The disconnect in the Australian selection panel
There are major disconnects within the Australian selection panel, and between that panel and Steve Smith.
Take Steve O’Keefe being dropped for the Bangladesh tour, on the grounds of form, in favour of Ashton Agar and Mitchell Swepson. Then O’Keefe was rushed over there for the second Test, while Swepson sat on his backside and Smith showed clear preference in the field to O’Keefe over Agar.
Then there’s Usman Khawaja. Considered crucial to the side, he was overlooked for four Tests in India, then tried for one in Bangladesh before being overlooked for the second, and is now considered a lock for the Ashes.
Hilton Cartwright, a player for the future, was given one Test in Australia, wasn’t picked on the tour of India, then picked on the tour of Bangladesh.
Shaun Marsh was picked for India because he’s ‘good in Asia’, but overlooked for Bangladesh.
Callum Ferguson and Joe Mennie were given one game to prove themselves at Test level, yet Mitch Marsh got 21.
Mitch Marsh, Glenn Maxwell and Hilton Cartwright are picked as top-six batsmen because they can bowl, only to find the captain doesn’t bowl them.
The mixed messages keep on coming. An all rounder is necessary, then he’s not, but one would still be good. A keeper has to keep and bat, only he has to keep more than bat, but if he can bat that would be good, but he has to keep – oh and be loud; but he doesn’t have to be. Spinners are good, but wouldn’t four pacemen be awesome – now let’s play three spinners. Age doesn’t matter but we’re going to drop all older players from Sheffield Shield teams, and have an ancient selection panel.
Just pick six batsmen, a keeper and four bowlers, then give them a decent chance.
But that’s too hard for his lot.
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Steve Smith’s captaincy
The reluctance to bowl part-timers, the enthusiasm for Nic Maddinson and Matthew Wade as Test players – despite poor domestic performances – publicly slapping down Khawaja, a lack of poker face on the field…
Smith isn’t an awful captain, but he’s fairly ordinary.
You can see how badly he wants to win, how much it means to him, and of course he’s a brilliant batsman, but that doesn’t always make you an ideal skipper.
Smith always seems to be playing catch up. Maybe this season will be the making of him. But if he still needs a wicketkeeper who shouts a lot to feel confident, maybe not.
No Brad Haddin
People sometimes forget the 2013-14 Ashes wasn’t all one-way traffic. Australia wobbled in their first innings in every Test (5-100, 5-257, 5-143, 5-112, 5-97) until bailed out by Brad Haddin. Every Test.
Australia has a poor record of performing when the top order doesn’t fire, so what happens if we’re five for-not-much again? Who’d rescue us? I can see Starc helping out in a few Tests (like he did in the first Test in India) – but it shouldn’t be his job.
None of the leading candidates for number six and seven this summer strike me as capable of leading a rescue mission. I hope I’m wrong, but it’s a massive weakness.
AFP PHOTO / Saeed KHAN
You never know when a key player will lose form
With fringe players the solution is easy – turf them. But when a key player goes off the boil it causes serious problems; because they’re proven champions, the selectors hang on to them.
Teams can generally carry one under-performing key player, but when it’s two things can go really badly – look at Mitchell Johnson and Mike Hussey in 2009.
Australia has been carried at home in recent years by the firm of Warner, Smith, Starc and Hazlewood, the four players guaranteed to play five Tests.
If more than one of these had a dud summer we could be in big trouble.
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