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Is the season already over after Round 1?

The Swans snared Lance in free agency. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Roar Guru
27th March, 2018
23
1136 Reads

With the exception of Hawthorn in 2013, in every season since 2008 the eventual premiers have not only won in Round 1, but have spent the entire season in the top eight. So should we already discount ten teams?

Of course not – it’s too early to discount any team – but Collingwood, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs need to bounce back immediately or their seasons might be over quickly.

North Melbourne was expected to struggle this year, and opening their season in a near cyclone, then having to come back and play on Good Friday after only a six-day break is not ideal if they want to negate these predictions.

West Coast was disappointing, although they did fight back well in the third quarter before tiring. Brisbane and Carlton both acquitted themselves well before tiring. Carlton was especially impressive against the reigning premiers. Adelaide was hit by injuries, but still probably should have won – their late lapse costing them against Essendon.

If Max Gawn’s kick had’ve been straight, then Melbourne would have had the perfect start to a season where they are expected to climb.

Max Gawn

Max Gawn of the Demons reacts after missing a shot (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

The Dees need to win next week and, as Brisbane has already shown, they are not easybeats, especially at the Gabba. Gawn’s miss could prove costly.

But what of Round 1’s winners?

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There were three convincing performances – Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and Sydney, although whether they had the greatest opponents remains to be seen.

Hawthorn was also impressive, but Collingwood was very disappointing. Richmond was good, and did what needed to be done, Essendon probably would not have beaten a full-strength Adelaide, but you can only beat the team you’re playing.

Geelong was very lucky, but still has the feeling of being a good team on their day. Nothing can be read into Gold Coast’s performance really, except that they clearly enjoyed the conditions more than the Kangaroos did.

St Kilda remains frustrating, and probably would not have beaten many other teams within the top eight with their performance, but they are aided by the draw, which gives them a chance to keep ironing out kinks in the early rounds. A convincing win against North Melbourne on Friday is important though, if for no other reason than belief.

This season will not be shaped by Round 1 results, but it will be shaped by early form.

Round 2 sees Geelong and Hawthorn play off, a grand final rematch in Adelaide, and a clash between two big round 1 winners, Sydney and Port Adelaide. The results of these three games will shape the ladder in the coming rounds.

The closeness of many Round 1 games means who might make finals isn’t any clearer, but it has set up the season to be what was predicted before it began – extremely close.

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Max Gawn’s miss might be pivotal in how the final eight is constructed this year.

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