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The Socceroos are in the fight of their life as they attempt to rescue their FIFA World Cup campaign, with something of a miracle needed if they are to progress to the next round.
As unlikely as it may seem after a 2-1 loss to France and a 1-1 draw with Denmark, the Socceroos can still qualify, thanks to France beating Peru on Thursday night to book their spot and consign the South American side to the bottom of the group.
It means Australia are three points behind Denmark, but almost equal on goal difference, and with the Danes having to play France in their final contest, anything is possible here.
As it stands, this is what the group ladder looks like.
| Pos. | Team | Points | Goal difference | Goals scored | Yellow cards | Red cards |
| 1 | France | 6 | +2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | +1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | Australia | 1 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | Peru | 0 | -2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
For Australia to qualify, the situation itself is simple. They must beat Peru and hope Denmark lose to France. If that doesn’t happen, what we are about to go through is completely irrelevant.
Those results would leave Australia and Denmark on the same amount of points, with goal difference being the first tie-breaker.
The current goal difference as it stands is a gap of two, which automatically happens if there is a result. If Australia were to win by two or more goals, or Denmark were to lose by two or more, then the results would flip around and the Socceroos advance.
If they can’t be split by goal difference, the greatest number of goals scored decides the team through to the Round of 16. Right now, it’s two apiece.
As long as Australia win, you’d expect they will get their total goals ahead, but if Denmark were to lose 2-1 and Australia win 1-0, we would need more tie-breakers.
The tie-breakers from there read like this:
*Note – Only one of the above deductions shall be applied to a player in a single match.
The problem with the first three of those criteria is there was no difference between Australia and Denmark in their games. It was a draw, with a one-all scoreline.
So, if the first three options don’t split them, they will have to go based on cards. Right now, Denmark have four yellow cards (minus four points) and Australia three yellow cards (minus three points), handing the Socceroos a one-point lead.
If cards end up tied as well by the end of the third matchday, then it’ll come down to a drawing by lot.
Yep, that’s right. One team’s name will be drawn at random to go through to the Round of 16.
Of course, it may not come to that. The way Group D is shaping up, there is every chance France may actually prefer to let Denmark win and finish second, avoiding the out of form but still dangerous Argentina in the second round of competition.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to the tie-breakers but we have an intriguing pair of games ahead of us, where football fans will be madly channel hopping to check whether their team is likely to go through or not.
Don’t forget The Roar will have both games covered live.