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Footy fans find themselves deep into the second half of the 2018 season and with the curtains well and truly closed on Carlton’s prospects once again, some familiar questions are being asked about the once-proud club.
Carlton is on its way to arguably the worst individual season by any club in the history of the national competition. The Blues are in last spot on the ladder with a single win in 2018 (Essendon – Round 8) and a hellish percentage of just 60.9.
Even the demoralised Bombers of a few years back, stripped of more than 30 players as a result of the supplements saga, proved more competitive on a regular basis.
Barring a miracle from the footy gods above, Carlton will accept its fifth Wooden Spoon in club history this season.
With all this in mind, some familiar questions are starting to mount up. Just who is responsible for the mess that is the 2018 Blues?
Is it the coach, Brendon Bolton? Do we blame the entirety of the coaching team, or the football department at large? Is this an administrative issue – is Carlton’s chairman Mark Lo Giudice at fault here?
Do we blame recruiting and trading periods of recent years? Can we blame both the Suns and Giants for creating compromised drafts when they entered the league as expansion clubs? Is it the game plan that’s letting the fans down?
Or the leadership group – is Marc Murphy at fault as a (highly unsuccessful) captain? Is it just a matter of a tough injury list concealing the talent that lies within the club?
They say you should never believe someone selling you a simple solution to a complex problem and they’re right. I’d happily concede that any one of the above issues can be partly blamed for the mess that is the Blues.
However with all of the above considered I think there is a pretty simple truth at the heart of the problem – Carlton has less than a handful of genuinely good footballers on the entirety of its playing list.
23-year-old Patrick Cripps, Carlton’s vice captain, is without a doubt the best player to wear the navy blue this season – it’s not even close.
Patrick Cripps of the Blues celebrates kicking a goal. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Cripps is one of the finest contested possession machines the AFL has ever produced. Cripps is currently second in the AFL Coaches Association’s MVP award with 68 votes – trailing only Melbourne ruck Max Gawn (71).
Cripps is the third favourite for the Brownlow Medal – trailing Hawthorn ball magnet Tom Mitchell and Melbourne’s Max Gawn – and to achieve so much as an individual in a team capable of achieving so little out on the ground. It’s a staggering effort.
But after Cripps it’s daylight when it comes to Carlton’s list.
Ed and Charlie Curnow both have bright futures ahead of them but at this stage in the story, they’re wasted talent sitting at the bottom of the ladder.
Kade Simpson reached 300 games this season as a one-club loyalist. I’ll never trash talk the career of man who manages to play more than 300 games at the highest level possible, but Simpson is 34 years old and if he was to hit the market I have a hard time believing any club seriously contending for a premiership would consider him as a viable option.
Dale Thomas likewise. Thomas played his best football eight years ago at the start of the decade as a Magpie. And don’t get me wrong – up on the wing of the MCG, he played some good football in a premiership side. But the 2020s are rapidly approaching and Thomas’ best is a long forgotten memory.
Matthew Kreuzer is one of the sadder stories of the AFL. Drafted at number one in 2007 alongside Richmond captain Trent Cotchin, Kreuzer could’ve had it all as a highly mobile ruck option if it wasn’t for an endless stream of injuries that hampered every sense of development he has ever made.
Matt Kreuzer (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
In the time it’s taken Cotchin to complete 213 games, captain his club to a premiership and win a Brownlow Medal, Kreuzer has managed just 162 games and has never managed to play out full season. I realise it’s apples and oranges with midfielders and rucks, but it’s worth thinking about.
I know, I know – the injury list.
You’ve got Andrew Phillips, Tom Williamson, Sam Docherty, Alex Silvagni and Lachie Plowman all dusted for the season.
Jesse Glass-McCasker and David Cunningham are missing in the medium to long term.
Then you’ve got Harrison Macreadie, Tom De Koning and Sam Kerridge as short term exclusions.
For a lot of people reading an injury list like the one at Carlton, it spells out nothing more than bad luck. Wow – 15 people all out at once? Not much you can do about that, apart from possibly question the preparation for the season itself.
For me, the real running theme of this injury list is the overt lack of achievement and experience. Barring a few front runners, this is not a list of proven winners.
With the exception of perhaps Sam Docherty, Lachie Plowman, Sam Kerridge and maybe Alex Silvagni, I highly doubt any of the above listed players would be considered required contributors in a top eight side – let alone a premiership contender.
When you look at an injury list that has 15 names on it and as a result the club is in last place with 26 losses from its last 28 starts, you expect to see some fundamental talent – a potential Brownlow Medal worthy midfield option, a key forward capable of kicking 50+ goals in a year, surely at least a few All Australian defenders?
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Barring a playful imagination Carlton isn’t missing much. Take a look at Collingwood in comparison – sitting third on the ladder after most predicted that this is the year Nathan Buckley would finally be scrubbed as senior coach.
Collingwood are playing without Adam Treloar, Lynden Dunn, Daniel Wells, Tyson Goldsack, Ben Reid, Tim Broomhead, Flynn Appleby and Will Hoskin-Elliot.
To that you can also add James Aish, Levi Greenwood, Alex Fasolo, Jarryd Blair and Jamie Elliot as consistently unavailable. All of these players at stages have been considered required members of the best 22.
From the Western Bulldogs best 22 they’re missing Bailey Dale, Tory Dickson, Lin Jong, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae, Liam Picken, Jack Redpath, Matt Suckling, Bailey Williams and Easton Wood.
An injury list as an excuse to miss the top eight? Sure. To produce this kind of a run of form? Long term, over multiple seasons? No.
The truth is even the lower end talent on the injury list of both the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood – that’s not even to mention the injuries endured by the Gold Coast, Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney – could all comfortably slide into Carlton’s total squad.
The Blues have had a terrible season (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
In 2018 Carlton are ranked in the bottom three teams in the following areas – overall pure possessions, clearances, disposal efficiency, disposal efficiency inside 50, marks inside 50, total kicks, total handballs and overall goals.
Carlton’s worst statistical offences take place in four areas – ranked as the worst club in the AFL for inside 50s produced, goal assists, intercept possessions and most outrageous of all, contested possessions.
How a side with Patrick Cripps as a vice captain can be the worst performing contested possession side is mind blowing. Imagine how bad those numbers would be without Cripps?
Richmond senior coach Damien Hardwick is on the record as saying the secret to success for his club was unearthing what it was his club did best and building a game plan around those strengths.
It sounds kind of vague but it makes sense with study. Richmond has a surplus of quality small forwards on its list, so as a team they subtracted the traditional centre half forward option and replaced with at least five small forwards rotating around Jack Riewoldt as the solitary tall target.
It’s a simple explanation but hey – they won a premiership.
Looking at Carlton’s numbers with a similar attitude, what do we see?
Well – Carlton is the worst side in the competition at winning its own footy, hence the performance in both contested possessions, clearances and pure possessions, and when they don’t have the ball in hand they’re the worst team at reading the flow of the match – hence they are ranked last in intercept possessions.
Then when Carlton does have the ball they’re arguably the worst at actually disposing of the thing, hence the bottom three tier level of efficiency, the lack of overall goal assists and goals and even marks inside 50.
When the opposition has the ball, they can’t read the play. When they have the ball, they use it at a rate worse than anyone else in the competition.
Carlton Blues (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
I guess what I’m trying to say in a very roundabout way is that Carlton, as a collection of footballers, just doesn’t seem to be particularly good at footy.
Alright – I’ve just spent nearly 1600 words sticking a boot into Blues. I get it, you guys get it, we all get it – we’ve seen them play. We don’t need to keep spelling it out. How about I come up with a solution or two instead of just rubbing it in.
That’s more than fair enough. Failure, like success, is total infectious and Carlton is at the stage now where they need some serious amputations.
It’s probably time for a new coach and a new football department. Time for a new recruiting team too. Carlton should play a bit of Moneyball and attract someone with a Paul Roos time of aura. Maybe someone like Paul Roos.
Follow the Melbourne and Richmond blueprints to success. High list turnovers, work out what the team’s natural strengths are and build around them until you’re competitive. Once you’re competitive, add even more polish.
Carlton needs new personnel out on the ground. Cut this list into ribbons. Everyone except Cripps and the Curnow boys are for sale. Dramatic yes but failure is infectious and a lot of this team has been bitten by the bug.
Richmond introduced Josh Caddy, Dion Prestia and Toby Nankervis to a middling team and won a flag as a result. Find yourself a few years of Caddy/Prestia/Nankervis at the trade table and completely reset this list.
Easier said than done for sure. But at least Carlton has the offer of a rich history as a perpetual selling point – something the Saints or Kangaroos would do anything to be able to offer potential recruits.
The best time to plant a seed was yesterday. The second best time is today. The movers and shakers at Carlton needs to start now this process now, or someone else will be doing it for them in a few years.
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