Wisdom from generations that have come and gone tell us that bad news comes in threes. That appears to be the situation for three key premiership contenders after Round 19 of the AFL season.
Collingwood – Will the Pies ever catch a break?
In one of the most exhilarating contests of the season, ladder leaders Richmond took on top-four fancies Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday afternoon in front of more than 88,000 people.
Richmond emerged victorious for a second time against Collingwood, getting over the line 16.9 (105) to 12.5 (77) – but it was a result that had plenty on offer for both sides, with the Pies managing to match it with the Tigers for three epic quarters of finals-worthy footy.
While Collingwood had plenty of reason to feel happy heading out of the round despite taking the loss, that good news was criss crossed by another three injuries to potentially key players come September.
A serious leg injury to Matthew Scharenberg in the third quarter marked the end of the season for the injury-plagued Magpie. Joining Scharenberg on the bench was star defender Jeremy Howe, removed via a concussion early in the day and leaving the Magpies at a serious disadvantage deep in the contest.
In the VFL, Collingwood forward Jamie Elliott is also in doubt for any sort of top level call up after injuring his left hamstring in the final quarter of a contest with North Melbourne.
Elliot, who led Collingwood’s goal kicking with 34 majors in 2017, is yet to play a senior game in 2018 after a series of hamstring issues.
Collingwood’s three latest injury dramas are more on top of the pyre of an already staggering injury list, with Flynn Appleby, Ben Reid, Adam Treloar and Tyson Goldsack all currently missing from the line up. Collingwood has already lost Kayle Kirby, Tim Broomhead, Lynden Dunn and Daniel Wells for the season too.
Collingwood’s injury list is without a doubt in the top three most severe in the competition and for the side to still be in the running for a spot in the top four, after missing the finals all together in 2017, is remarkable.
Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley chats with Lynden Dunn of the Magpies. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Sydney – The Swans are out of steam
Sydney simply didn’t look themselves on Friday night at Etihad Stadium against Essendon, defeated 15.19 (109) to 10.6 (66).
Following that loss Sydney slip to ninth place on the ladder with 11 wins and seven losses, while Essendon climbs closer to the pack – 10 wins, eight losses and sitting in 11th place.
Sydney has issues across the board heading towards the finals and with competition tighter than ever, it’s not looking good for the boys in red-and-white.
Sydney’s forward line has had issues of predictability all season and it’s becoming increasingly clear that with an injury-addled Lance Franklin unable to strut his stuff, the Swans struggle to kick a winning score.
Down back the Swans likewise didn’t look themselves either, conceding more than 100 points and 34 shots on goal to an Essendon outfit missing its full forward from last season and producing admittedly terrible and unfocused entries.
Oh, the midfield. Sydney’s stunning midfield, once comfortable with bidding farewell to ball magnet Tom Mitchell, would now likely sell the farm to get a player of his calibre back.
The frustration for the Swans was best symbolised via the perpetually feisty killer half back Zak Jones, losing the plot and boiling over twice and picking up two reports – one right before the first bounce.
Discipline has felt like it was one of the Swans’ key traits since the Paul Roos era. Now, with a long, with the odds stacked against them – not so much.
The run home for Sydney features four potential finalists – Collingwood, Melbourne, Greater Western Sydney and finally Hawthorn. We should expect the Swans to win at least one of those matches, but winning all of them and grabbing a spot inside the eight – not likely.
But the real bad news triple for Sydney only feels visible in the rearview – losses to Essendon (Round 19), Gold Coast (Round 18) and Geelong (Round 16) – a run only interrupted by a six-point win against North Melbourne – have left the Swans with too much work to do to buy a ticket in the top eight in 2018.
The Swans are in trouble (AAP Image/Daniel Munoz)
Melbourne – The rocky road ahead
After an agonising loss to Geelong last weekend, Melbourne returned to the winners list in Round 19 with a big win against Adelaide at Adelaide Oval – getting over the line 13.12 (90) to 10.17 (77).
Melbourne’s win was a resounding result for the blue-and-red bandits, snatching up an important interstate result and maintaining a hold on sixth spot with 11 wins and seven losses.
The three bad news bears for the Demons come in the lead up to September, taking on Sydney (Round 21), West Coast (Round 22) and finally Greater Western Sydney (Round 23) – three top, to mid table calibre sides all desperate for wins.
Melbourne needs to win a healthy percentage of these games to stay in the top eight in five week’s time and a loss to any of the three could see them heartbreakingly parked outside of the biggest party of the season for a second season in a row.
Melbourne has a bonus round for the bad news triple too.
One two-point loss to Geelong (Round 18), a two-point loss to St Kilda (Round 15) and a three-point loss to Geelong (Round 1).
Three narrow losses, each less than one goal – a stronger pain when you remember that Melbourne is still the highest scoring team in the competition – could, in hindsight, cost the Demons a spot in the eight.
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