When Michael Hooper elected to take a penalty goal in front of the posts last Saturday night in Sydney the New Zealand team breathed a sigh of relief, and a collective national smirk.
Australian fans can see the answer, while Michael Hooper continues to take soft options.
New Zealand sides have always been happy to give away penalties and three points to compete for the ball at the other end of the field.
With that opportunity evaporated a golden chance for seven points, the potential for a kiwi sin binning, and taking some gas out of the collection All Black tank.
A quick tap would have likely drawn a New Zealand defensive error, or a try. Penalty goals don’t win matches these days against good opponents.
A try from that position would have given the Wallabies momentum, which they have shown they know how to use.
But Australia lost the game in the set piece. The scrum was understandable: No Scott Sio or Taniela Tupou coupled with easily the most appalling refereeing performance in memory.
The appointment of Wayne Barnes as referee should assuage Wallaby fans. He is even-handed and knows the scrum.
I wouldn’t imagine we will see Jaco Peyper again any time soon, even at the supermarket. His decision not to sin-bin Waisake Naholo’s spear tackle set a precedent in world rugby the last few years.
Michael Cheika has done well working out defensive structures to cope with the way New Zealand prize apart sections of the defensive line.
The Wallabies have also improved their line speed and overall defensive technique, no doubt hardened by the rigours of three Tests against an Irish team, who have perfected the art of bending the line with powerful ball runners.
This defence should create turnover opportunities, but Australia must be more dynamic with turnover ball, especially closer to the ruck, where they have a speed advantage.
If Australia can win 80 per cent of their ball, key throws in the opposition 22, and pinch a few throws from New Zealand, they will be presented with enough possession to win the game – even minus Israel Folau, Tevita Kuridrani, Samu Kerevi, Jack Dempsey, Tupou and an in-form Rory Arnold. Australia have three recognised jumpers, with good lineout options off the bench.
New Zealand excel in defensive lineouts: It has been their cash cow for the last 10 years. Just look at the lineout stats in the 2015 world cup and you will see why they won, and what an achievement it was that Australian competed so deep into the game.
Look at the lineout stats last week, and you will see why they dominated. Its not really a matter of winning your own bal, its a matter of limiting the damage.
In Brodie Retallick, Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock you have three of the best lineout technicians in the history of the game, the best defensive lineout seen at international level.
Cheika must inject his reserves more strategically, which means earlier.
But risk wins matches. Organised, premeditated, planned risk. If Australia want to harvest belief and win man-on-man battles, jettisoning set piece for planned attack in certain areas of the football field will create points and momentum nd more saliently damage New Zealands defensive line.
But if Australia don’t lead New Zealand by 12-14 points at the 60-minute mark watch out, we could be in for another one-sided affair.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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