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After a punishing 25 weeks, 16 has become eight and the NRL finals are here, with The Roar‘s NRL expert tipping panel back to tell you who is going to be still kicking heading into next week.
Last week, it was Tom and myself getting seven tips a piece, but of course, that doesn’t help in the slightest on the overall leaderboard with a huge gap to make up to the leaders.
The Crowd had six tips, drawing them closer to AJ, who had five, while Tim also had five.
It means AJ leads with 114 on the board. The Crowd have pulled to within two tips of the lead, while Tim is on 110 with just nine games to go before we can declare a champion for 2018.
The finals will get underway in Melbourne, with the Storm set to take on the Rabbitohs in what should be a cracking qualifying final on Friday night.
A Sydney double-header on Saturday will start at Homebush with the Panthers playing the Warriors in one of the most unpredictable finals games you’re ever likely to see, before the Roosters host the Sharks with a week off sitting on the line.
The last game of the first week is the other elimination battle, where the Brisbane Broncos will enter as heavy favourites to maul the Dragons.
Don’t forget to submit your tips on the form below by 5pm (AEST) on Friday to be part of The Crowd as you take on the experts.
Tips: Rabbitohs, Warriors, Sharks, Broncos
We’ve had an unpredictable time tipping of late, so why not enjoy some incredibly difficult finals tipping? This will be a sensational month of football with great matchups on both sides of the eight.
No matter how finals week one pans out, we’ll have evenly paired games throughout the series. I cannot wait. So to the tipping, for what it’s worth…
On Friday the Rabbitohs will need to beat the Storm in Melbourne for the first time ever. Can they do it? They went close in 2016, but that was when the Storm were in cruise mode heading into the finals.
The Bunnies have serious forward talent in the Burgii, Angus Chrichton and John Sutton. But so do the Storm, with Felise Kafusi, Jesse Bromwich and Trim Glasby. The Bunnies get a slight edge from me here.
As good as Cam Munster is, I’m not sure he can take on Cody Walker and Adam Reynolds with Jahrome Hughes at his side. Cameron Smith will have his hands full with Damien Cook so there’s a huge amount of pressure on the young Melbourne pairing.
(Photo by Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)
Who wins? Bunnies. The matchups mentioned above plus Cheyse Blair and Curtis Scott trying to contain Greg Inglis and Dane Gagai say me to the red and myrtle. The Storm are very gettable, but they’re still an elite team with an elite coach who will be playing in front of their passionate crowd.
On to the double-header spread over two venues, first with a refitted Panthers club taking on the highly fancied Warriors. The Warriors have kicked off some amazing finals runs from the lower part of the eight before and there’s more than enough talent to do so again.
After an injury-stricken year, Tohu Harris is named in the second row. He’s been a true barometer for the Warriors in 2018. If he goes poorly or doesn’t play, they’re in massive trouble.
Penrith really needed last week’s win in Melbourne to get back on track. Cameron Ciraldo has almost a full roster to use now and with a team that has two finals victories in the last two years, they know what to expect.
This one will be decided by whoever makes the most of their momentum and I think the Warriors can score more points quickly. This will be an absolute cracker!
Later on Saturday night it’s one for the purists – what should be a grinding grinder of a grind as two of the best slow play teams crawl all over one another.
The Roosters snatched top spot in round 25 and a date with Cronulla, who live for this kind of game. Both teams will be down and dirty for the majority of the 80 but they both do have some true game-breakers: Cronulla have Valentine Holmes, Matt Moylan and Andrew Fifita, the Chooks James Tedesco, Cooper Cronk and the sensational Latrell Mitchell.
I lean to the Sharks because they’ve got more depth on the bench in Segeyaro, Woods and Capewell. Cronulla to win, but not by much at all. Maybe even by a golden point.
Brisbane host St George on Sunday afternoon in what looks to be the simple choice of week one, but the Dragons have started to maybe get a hold of themselves lately with wins over tricky teams in Wests Tigers and Newcastle.
All the focus has been on Ben Hunt and how he’ll handle things but now Hunt has Gareth Widdop back it’ll be interesting to see if they can re-energise their early season combination.
Brisbane have been retooled and reworked on the fly by master coach Wayne Bennett in 2018. Jamayne Isaako is a revelation, Anthony Milford is kicking better than ever before and young bucks like Joe Ofahengaue and David Fifita always turn out to show their worth. This is a great Broncos team who are capable of much more and they should win, but the Dragons will be no pushover.
Tips: Rabbitohs, Panthers, Sharks, Broncos
The Rabbitohs have never beaten Melbourne in Melbourne. In fact they’ve only won five matches against the Storm ever. However, one of those matches was a final in 2013. And the Bunnies have a settled halves combination and a better pack.
I’m going the Bunnies to win a close one.
The Panthers, while not actually at home, are a lot closer to it than the Warriors are. And the Warriors just aren’t that good. The Panthers machine started rolling better last week and I reckon they’ll be able to put away the Warriors, who are playing their first finals series since 2011 I believe.
The Sharks are my smokies for the title. Playing at the SFS isn’t a big issue for them either. What will be is the form of Blake Ferguson, Latrell Mitchell and James Tedesco. But I reckon the Sharkies will win in the forwards and use that platform to take the game.
The Broncos will get Andrew McCullough back this week and they’ll be at home. The Dragons haven’t won at Suncorp since 2009. I don’t think that hoodoo is going to be broken on Sunday, even with Widdop back.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Tips: Rabbitohs, Warriors, Sharks, Dragons
The Finals are a whole new ballgame. A new competition, where any team can win. At least that’s what we’re led to believe. And if you believe this narrative, then you’ll be tipping the Storm to beat South Sydney. Melbourne have the better list, finished higher on the ladder, and have the home ground advantage – hence they will win.
But I’m not a fan of this argument. I prefer to tip on form, and what I’ve seen from the Rabbitohs over the past few weeks has been more impressive than anything the Storm have produced. So I’m going with my ample gut, and predicting a South Sydney upset.
Panthers or Warriors? I’m flipping a coin on this one. There’s simply no telling which version of each team will turn up on the night. If both squads are on song, then we’re in for a finals classic. If both teams are having an off night, then this game will be tougher to watch than Crawley’s Beef of the Week. Warriors by 4.
I’ve been tipping the Roosters all season. With Cronk, Tedesco, Mitchell, Keary and Cordner, it just feels wrong to tip against such a star-studded squad. And I was tempted to tip the minor premiers again this weekend, but I just have the sneaking suspicion that the Sharks will be up for this one.
For starters, Cronulla are the form club of the finals series. They’ve won 7 of their last 9 games, and three of those victories have come against Top 8 opponents (Penrith, Melbourne and New Zealand). And the two losses they’ve suffered have been by a combined 3 points. So yeah, they’re going alright.
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
The Roosters? I’m not as convinced. They’ve compiled some flashy performances, putting 30 on St George Illawarra, 40 on Parramatta and 50 on Manly, but then they scored just 20 points across consecutive losses to Brisbane and Canberra. At this stage of the season, with everything on the line, I’m more confident in Cronulla finding a way to win.
And in Tom’s “Rock Solid” tip of the week, I’m banking on the Dragons upsetting the Broncos. Why? Because it makes no sense. Well actually it makes a little sense. Brisbane have a history of winning the games they are expected to lose, and dropping the games they are expecting to win. And based on the recent form of St George Illawarra, this is certainly a game Brisbane would be expected to win.
But the Dragons won’t be push-overs. With Widdop back from a popped shoulder, they will be back to near full strength. And people are quick to forget that this squad at full strength led the competition for the majority of the season. I think they can pull an upset. Dragons by 12.
Tips: Storm, Warriors, Sharks, Broncos
Roll the dice and see what happens?
But on a more serious note, this finals series is going to be something special. Eight teams who don’t mind throwing the ball around with more unpredictability than any finals series we have seen in recent memory.
Starting in the Victorian capital for some primetime footy, I just can’t see how the Bunnies win away from home.
I know, Melbourne have had a stack of issues in the build-up to the finals. They had a mountain of players out last week and lost to the Panthers, but they are very tough to beat down south, as the Eels will attest to after last year.
It’s not to say South Sydney are a poor footy team, but in a close game, Craig Bellamy will find a way with Billy Slater and Cameron Smith on the field to get his side over the line.
The second game is the hardest to tip of the lot. The Warriors are a bloody good side on their day, but the problem with tipping them is that there is so much between what they produce on their best day and their worst.
If they have their best day four games in a row, they win the competition. I’m almost convinced of that. One day where they are off the money though and they are gone, telling their story walking into Mad Monday.
In saying that, the Panthers have been unpredictable at best. They can’t rest on their laurels after the win last week, and while they won’t, they will still be knocked out this week.
(AAP Image/David Rowland)
The upset for mine is Cronulla over the Roosters. The minor premiers still haven’t convinced me all season, despite their run of form to take the top spot in the competition.
Even losing this game, they will still be among the competition favourites, but as it stands at the moment, the Sharks are my dark horse for the competition, just going about their business and as they did when they last won this thing in 2016, getting the job done when it’s needed, no matter how unlikely it looks.
The final game – well, I’ve tipped against the Dragons on two, yes two occasions this year and they have won both. Here’s to hoping that continues, but even with Gareth Widdop back on the field, winning in Brisbane after some shoddy form seems unlikely.
| Finals Week 1 | Tim | Tom | AJ | Scott | The Crowd |
| STO v RAB | RAB | RAB | RAB | STO | RAB |
| PAN v WAR | PAN | WAR | WAR | WAR | WAR |
| ROO v SHA | SHA | SHA | SHA | SHA | ROO |
| BRO v DRA | BRO | DRA | BRO | BRO | BRO |
| Last week | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Total | 110 | 104 | 114 | 103 | 112 |
Crowd tipping will close at 5pm (AEST) on Friday evening. Be sure to submit your tips on the form below before then to make your opinion count as part of The Crowd.