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Opinions of former champions and appointed selectors have their place, but for Australian cricket to truly prosper artificial intelligence must be embraced.
Sophisticated algorithms dominate our lives, they determine which shares are bought and sold for our retirement funds, how long we have to wait for a bus, train, or at a set of traffic lights and what we see on our social media feeds.
Yet for over 100 years and counting, Australian men’s cricket has relied upon middle-aged men of similar experience and background to decide who represents the national team, a job now clearly beyond such a group and perhaps any group.
Questions as to the value and relevance of an all-rounder in a Test team; the most desirable combination of left and right handed players in a batting line-up; the trade-off between a bowlers strike rate and runs per over are extremely complicated; they require the concurrent assessment of thousands of variables and are best suited to machines.
For today’s selectors, their job is complicated further with a requirement to compare performances in a range of different formats, competitions and conditions. How does one objectively compare a Joe Burns century in a home Test against an inexperienced Sri Lankan bowling line-up, to Matt Renshaw hundreds in county cricket or a Marcus Stoinis match winning 44 in the Big Bash?
In addition to answering tough questions on known issues, artificial intelligence provides the best opportunity to bring greater innovation to the game.
In 2018, Major League baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays pitching ranks were dismantled by injuries and trades, but off the back of a creative data-driven strategy they put forward a plan to better utilise their pitches and in doing so, defied critics to surge to a 90-win regular season.
Tampa Bay, noting how team’s score the most runs in the first innings, started their best pitcher in more games than any other team, which included a record run of nine consecutive scoreless starts, but importantly only kept their starting pitcher in the game for 1-2 innings, keeping him fresh allowing him to back up more frequently.
They called this new role the ‘opener’ and it has since been mimicked by several other major league teams.
In contrast to this approach, the Australian selectors were given seven months to bring together a viable batting line up post ‘sandpaper-gate’, they came up with their own version of the ‘opener’ strategy, promoting a batsman not used by his state in that position to lead off for the national team.
By installing Aaron Finch to open the innings in five critical Tests, the selectors seemingly were relying upon the unquantified good bloke theory last seen being used by Bob Simpson in the ’80s.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz – CA/Cricket Australia/Getty Images)
The further advantage provided by artificial intelligence is that it never has to explain its decisions to a fanbase or at a post-match press conference, and thus doesn’t succumb to the pressure of making safe but stupid decisions.
In American football we see teams continue to struggle with this pressure, here rules require offensive teams to make ten yards forward progress within a given set of four plays known as a down. If a team cannot make ten yards the opposition receives the ball.
If ten yards hasn’t been completed prior to the fourth down, teams have three options with their final play: attempt a field goal, punt the ball giving up possession but gaining metres or the final, most risky option, which is to run or to pass the ball attempting to win back possession but knowing that if the required yards are not gained the opposition wins the ball back with no additional field position lost.
History shows that in the NFL teams take the third option, the risky option, too little and in the process cost themselves between 0.50 and 0.66 wins a season.
In short form cricket, especially T20, captains are often faced with similar types of dilemmas. A question often faced by the fielding team is whether to continue with a ‘part-time’ bowler, who to that point in the game, may have exceeded expectations in either wickets taken or runs conceded, or revert to the safer more conventional choice of a specialist bowler.
Just like the fourth down in the NFL, this decision requires the simultaneous weighing of multiple factors, in a T20 World Cup final, who would you want to make that type of decision, a captain or coach with the weight of a nation on their shoulders or a machine with perfect objective recall?
Diverse opinions on cricket are wonderful, and matters of selection are always going to be contentious in a sport where so few get to the main stage of representing their country, but if Australia cannot quickly embrace a future with artificial intelligence at the centre of selection and strategy in our national cricket teams, we will be destined for many more years of mediocrity.
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