Opinion
There’s a nice little meeting at HQ this week where I’ve decided to start late with Race 5 (you’d think I have an AM golf game).
While I like the favourite in the Highway, I’m very keen on a couple later in the afternoon so I have saved my pesos for a tilt after lunch. It’s a true winter meeting with some mid-weekers aiming to step up and take on the usual Saturday brigade and it should be a good day.
Stay safe, enjoy the pubs, good punting.
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 196
Units won: 185.80
Based on one unit being equal to $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends (see comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition).
Race 5: Monte Ditto (two units)
Monte Ditto ranks clearly on top here, my head was spinning a bit so I ran it again and yes, I’m not crazy. Why?
He’s only been running okay at a midweek level without winning but gets a lovely weight drop here, and maps okay with four speed horses. A soft 6 would be ideal, but is it too much to ask? The leaders all rate well with Oakfield Twilight just in front of Catesby and Burning Crown.
Race 6: 2 Wandabaa (one unit)
It’s a tricky little sprint for fillies and mares here, Wandabaa rates the best on her first-up win and stretches to 1200 here, which shouldn’t be an issue considering her trainer tried her at 1250 last spring. Trust team Lees I guess.
Of the rest, I don’t mind Miss Scorcher’s country form although she may need it drier. The same deal with Enfleurage, and maybe Jay Jay D’Ar.
Race 7: 4 Viridine (one unit)
Viridine is known to empty punter’s pockets (surely nowhere nearly as badly as Kementari). I think he’s the right price here at double-figure odds and is ready to win at 1200 third-up on a slow track (6 or better please). 7 or worse and I’ll shift to his Godolphin buddy Coruscate. Southern Lad is the worry.
Race 8: 11 Dealmaker (two units)
Taking a horse with two wins from 25 starts is risk/reward, and I feel like I’m eerily in Monte Ditto (see above) territory here as well, but I’ve landed on Dealmaker and actually have some confidence he can notch his third win here.
His two wins are at the mile on slow ground, he was just about there against Grand Piano two starts back and drops five kilos from that effort. Outside of him there was quite a few rated together, Man of Peace will run along and handles all conditions, Phaistos looks well placed and Hallelujah Boy is doing the rain dance up in Newcastle.
(Leonie Grbic/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Race 9: 12 Regal Stage (three units)
Love the Louise Day appointment here giving Regal Stage three kilos relief, would expect him to be handy (lead?) in Waterhouse/Bott fashion and should go close with nothing to carry. Come Along will probably get the soft going he’s after to be competitive here.
Adana, Opacity and Greek Hero are in the numbers.
Stradbroke Handicap, Brisbane Race 8: 5 Victorem (one unit)
Going to close off today with a tip in the Straddie, it’s one of my favourite races of the year (slightly behind the Galaxy). It’s usually a case of bet wide and bet often, but I will keep it pretty tight here and go with Victorem.
It’s a funny speed race with a huge field but not a huge amount of normal leaders, I still expect enough for this guy to get clear and be in the finish.
Hightail looks like a beast but could get squeezed and might is a query at 1350, Dawn Passage probably has to use some petrol from the car park and Bam’s on Fire will probably rush forward from the inside but he’s potentially more of a miler. Great race.
Specials, lays, knocks and speculators, please add your comments and send them my way.
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