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Injuries continued to wreak havoc on the NRL during Round 16, with more surprising results than you could poke a stick at. Here are my talking points from the weekend.
The top eight is settled, but who finishes where?
I was on the verge of writing this last week, but with the Dragons losing and the Sharks winning, the top eight is locked in with four weeks to go.
Finishing order not quite, but the teams who will play finals footy won’t be changing. The Warriors are the only team now in with an outside shot of de-throning the Sharks, but they’d need to win all four given Cronulla’s draw, and that simply won’t happen.
The top four might see some minor changes, but it’s hard to see the Panthers not winning the minor premiership with a three-point buffer and the Broncos, Cowboys and Bulldogs all still to play, so let’s lock that in.
The Storm have a slightly tougher run-in, but should hang onto second. The Eels’ form suggests they could lose two of their last four though (against Penrith and Wests), so there is every chance the Roosters jump them thanks to a superior for and against to go with games against the Raiders, Knights, Sharks and Rabbitohs, all of which are winnable.
The Rabbitohs have to play both Melbourne alongside the Roosters, so they still won’t make the top four despite a superb run of form. With only two wins from their last four, they would only finish on 24 points, while the Raiders (who play Dragons, Warriors and Sharks in the final three weeks) should do enough to finish on 26, leaving them two behind the Eels.
The Cronulla-Newcastle game next week may well be imperative to seventh, but with the Knights likely to record wins over the Titans and Dragons while Cronulla face the Roosters and Raiders, the men from the hunter should still hold onto seventh come the end of the season.
So, that being said, here is how the first week of the finals currently look like shaping up:
Qualifying final 1: Penrith Panthers (1) vs Parramatta Eels (4)
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm (2) vs Sydney Roosters (3)
Elimination final 1: Canberra Raiders (5) vs Cronulla Sharks (8)
Elimination final 2: South Sydney Rabbitohs (6) vs Newcastle Knights (7)
Can South Sydney overcome the loss of Latrell Mitchell?
Rugby league can be so cruel.
Just when Latrell Mitchell was starting to come into his own at fullback, playing much better and more well-rounded games, he suffers a gruesome hamstring injury in a game South Sydney won by a motza over the Eels.
It didn’t need to happen, but it did, and the star’s season is over. Just like that. In the blink of an eye, the Rabbitohs need to find a way to counter the loss of Mitchell as they continue their late-season run of outstanding form.
Mitchell has played a huge part in their victories over both the Sea Eagles and Eels but now, it looks as if the best option will be to have Alex Johnston at the back.
It’s not the worst ready-made replacement, but when his best position is on the wing as a try-scoring wizard, and he has often been inconsistent at the back, it weakens the Rabbitohs in more than one way.
They can overcome the injury as a team if their forwards continue playing a fast, entertaining brand of football which allows Damien Cook and Cody Walker to play their natural games, however, on the edge defensively, this will bring with it another negative.
South Sydney’s expectations have always been less than a premiership this year, and while Wayne Bennett is getting his team going at the right time, the growing promise of a team who could do better than those expectations has taken a huge hit.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The player loan system should become permanent
If there is one factor about this 2020 season worth celebrating, it’s the performance of the Warriors, and the willingness of a couple of select clubs (well done Parramatta in particular!) to loan out players to keep the club from across the ditch going.
When they relocated to the Central Coast, they would have taken one more win for the season as a positive result. Fourteen weeks later and they have six to their name, and the most outside of chances at playing finals footy.
The player loan system must be here to stay.
Both George Jennings and Daniel Alvaro were in that Warriors team on the weekend, getting a lot more playing time than they otherwise would have been back at the Eels.
With a high injury toll right across the competition, there could well be a line of thought that suggests this is going to be the norm into the future, and with expansion on the radar, the loan system into the future could help to fill some gaps.
Players like Spencer Leniu, Jack Hetherington (already loaned), Shawn Blore, Tristan Sailor, Jacob Saab and (until recently) Starford To’A, all of whom are capable of first-grade footy, simply aren’t getting game time at their current club, but could be at another, which works as a positive for the player, the outgoing team, and the receiving team.
This year has presented an opportunity to trial the loan system, and it works.
And if it works in the world’s biggest sport, there is no reason it can’t work in the NRL.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Who would have guessed? Seibold wasn’t Brisbane’s only problem
Hopefully, this will be the last time this season a talking point needs to mention Seibold, but anyone expecting him to be sacked and a quick fix to follow at Red Hill was kidding themselves.
The problems at the Broncos run far deeper than a coach, as much as fans would have liked to believe it. While Seibold had a hand in developing those problems, the recruitment team, players and club’s board are all equally to blame.
The problems were evident from the word go this season and, while they did win those first two games before the COVID-enforced lockdown, we now know beating the Cowboys and Rabbitohs in close games isn’t the achievement it was originally cracked up to be.
Since then, they have had a single win and conceded 50 for the second time against the Roosters on Friday, with a lazy defensive performance.
The side is devoid of experience, and what little they do have is among their worst players, while the halves combination is less than settled with changes coming thick and fast in the preceding weeks. With future stars on the way out and a disjointed season in the bag, the only hope now has to be that it won’t scar some of Queensland’s biggest future prospects long-term.
What Brisbane need are some hard-nosed administrators and a recruitment team with an eye for a re-build, to understand success won’t be just around the corner, and a coach happy to work with that.
As a club, the joint is a shambles. They are at their historical lowest ebb, and expectations must be realistic going forward.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Not even injuries can de-rail the Storm
The ultimate professionals. What more can you say about the Storm at this point?
Just when they get stars Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes back, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Marion Seve fail to complete their big win over the Sea Eagles.
They might have been expected to win, but to do it in such convincing fashion with only 15 players on the park for the majority of the game makes it all the more special.
The scariest part is, apart from their loss to the Eels last week where they were simply blunted by the defence and a horror injury toll, they haven’t batted an eyelid. They have managed to run through all the top teams, and are the only team who could mount a challenge for the minor premiership should the Panthers falter.
Obviously, winning finals games if the trio who came back today go down with injury again might be tough, but if they have a ‘normal’ injury toll in one of the most chaotic seasons on record, there is no reason to suspect that with their experience, and Craig Bellamy at the helm, they can’t go all the way yet again.
Melbourne are simply just that good.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Dylan Edwards continues to improve, and the sky is the limit
Maybe the toughest part of running the Panthers would be working out which junior talent to hang onto.
At the moment, they have the right formula, with much of the team playing first grade coming through the club’s junior ranks. However, as is the trend at the foot of the mountains, they have wave after wave of talent coming through, and the salary cap squeeze probably isn’t far from beginning.
That being said, Ivan Cleary and his recruitment team have some huge decisions to make. One of the biggest will be at fullback.
Dylan Edwards might have taken a while to adjust to first grade, but he is using the second half of 2020 to go gangbusters. Now established in first grade, Edwards has run for more than 200 metres three weeks in a row, defending well and contributing to the Panthers’ scoring during that time as the club continues their incredible winning run at the top of the table.
At 24, his contract is locked in with the club until the end of 2022, which is great news for Panthers fans, but in the same breath, concerning. Charlie Staines and Glenn McGrady, both under the age of 20, are considered excellent fullback options in the future, while Daine Laurie may also count that position as his preference in the future.
That’s three exceptionally talented players sitting behind Edwards who the club may well lose, because Edwards is simply one the Panthers won’t want to let go as he continues improving to the point where he could be considered among the best fullbacks in the game as he reaches the prime of his career.
In saying all that, some clubs would love which talented fullbacks to keep to be their biggest problem, as Penrith continue all guns blazing to a deep finals run.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Cronulla’s future looks bright
This mightn’t be the year for the Sharks to win the competition, but Saturday’s win over the Cowboys proved their junior pathway is working.
Take Shaun Johnson and Matt Moylan out of any side and they are going to look weaker, but the Sharks, if anything, looked stronger.
And while the quality of opposition – the hapless Cowboys – has to be taken into account when dissecting the big win for the black, white and blue, the performance of their young halves, Braydon Trindall and Connor Tracey, was superb.
That goes with the rest of the side. They fielded an exceptionally young spine, as Will Kennedy and Blayke Brailey continue to improve in their roles week on week, while forwards who are still in the fledging part of their first-grade careers, like Braden Hamlin-Uele, Briton Nikora, Siosifa Talakai and Toby Rudolf all played strongly, and have done consistently.
That doesn’t even make mention of possibly their best prospect, Jack Williams, who has fallen right off the radar this year.
If there is one thing for sure about Cronulla, it’s that another premiership window may not be too far away if they recruit a few solid players to work with their youthful talent, and hang onto the juniors who will carry the club into the future.