Opinion
As we leave the last of the bye rounds behind us and enter into Round 15, it is a good time to look ahead at the run home for one of the competition’s surprise contenders for the 2021 premiership.
Few could’ve predicted the stark turnaround the we have seen from the Demons in 2021. Widely touted as having one of the more promising lists in recent years, Melbourne found themselves in a position few could fathom following their preliminary final berth in 2018, slumping to 17th in 2019 and ninth in 2020.
Melbourne’s start to the 2021 season has no doubt been emphatic. At 11 wins and two losses, they boast a healthy percentage and are considered by many to be almost certainties for the top four. But is it that simple? Let’s take this opportunity to have a look at the Demons’ run home.
With nine games left to play, Melbourne have to negotiate a relatively challenging run home. Facing away games against top-eight sides Port Adelaide, West Coast and Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, as well the Bulldogs at the MCG, the Demons can ill afford to squander opportunities against their remaining opponents outside the top eight.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Perhaps the most critical phase in negotiating this final nine weeks begins with their Round 15 and 16 clashes against two in-form teams contending for a top-eight spot in Essendon and GWS.
Both of these opponents cannot be taken lightly given their current form. These matches are scheduled to go ahead at the MCG and simply are must-win games if the Demons want maintain the two-game advantage they currently hold over the fifth-placed Port Adelaide.
Melbourne’s two losses this season have come to bottom-six sides in Adelaide and Collingwood and while these were tremendous wins, there was an undeniable element of complacency about the Demons on each of these occasions, particularly evident in the Queen’s Birthday clash against the Pies.
Put simply, they cannot afford to have another performance like these against their remaining opponents in Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Adelaide, or their quest for a top-four position will come under significant pressure.
Given there is somewhat of a log jam at the top end of the ladder this season, I expect 17 wins to guarantee teams earning a top-four position and I suspect 16 wins with a healthy percentage will also achieve this result.
Looking at the remaining fixtures for the contending sides I give five sides a realistic chance of achieving either of these results: Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane and Port Adelaide.
Assuming Melbourne do not have another hiccup against a side outside the top eight, then they will only need to beat one of Port Adelaide, West Coast, Geelong or the Bulldogs to reach 17 wins and shore up a position in the top four.
If they continue to play the way that we have seen in 2021, I anticipate that this shouldn’t be an issue for them.
In what has been a strong first half of the 2021 season for the Demons, it is clear that their biggest challenges are in front of them. Simon Goodwin’s test will be to keep the group mentally fresh, hungry and firing as a collective unit as they continue their campaign for the club’s first premiership since 1964.
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