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AFL Round 16 power rankings

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Roar Guru
5th July, 2021
27
1221 Reads

Round 16 upended the machinations surrounding the top eight as contenders lost and pretenders were found out.

We had every game except the Adelaide-Brisbane game played inside Victoria for a festival of footy. Read on for my Round 16 power rankings.

18. Hawthorn Hawks (down seven)
The Hawks came crashing down to earth this week after playing some pretty good footy that saw them have a series of honourable losses along with a couple unexpected wins. They went into Saturday night’s fixture with everything to play for to commemorate the 400th game of Shaun ‘Silk’ Burgoyne. Unfortunately, the Hawks were unable to translate the added incentive for victory into a win. The highlight of the game came when Burgoyne was chaired off by Travis Boak and Liam Shiel to commemorate his unique and spectacular career. Alastair Clarkson has shown himself to be up for the challenge of creating a new premiership side, but Saturday night was a blight on his record.

17. Collingwood Magpies (down one)
The Magpies faced a St Kilda outfit that has re-discovered the inner mongrel of yesteryear. The Pies did well to narrow the margin in the last quarter but Robert Harvey would be disappointed in the lack of difference as to how they’re playing when compared with Nathan Buckley’s tenure. In brighter news for the Pies, Jordan de Goey continues to be a beacon of hope gathering another 32 disposals in his midfield role. The Pies were insipid and flatfooted for three quarters on Sunday afternoon, and frenetic and panicked for the last quarter. They’re eagerly awaiting the end of the season as they’re no hope of playing finals and want to get around their vaunted father-son prospect Nick Daicos.

16. Adelaide Crows (down one)
The Crows fought hard to get their home game at the Adelaide Oval, particularly with the prospect of facing an up-and-about Bombers at Marvel next week hanging over their head. Despite the home-ground advantage, the Crows failed to fire with a sickening neck injury for Taylor Walker making matters far worse. The Crows’ young back line could not deal with the increased mobility provided by a fully fit and firing Lincoln McCarthy (four goals) and Zac Bailey (three goals, 26 disposals). The Crows now go to Marvel Stadium to face a down-on-form Bombers side eager to prove their improvements go deeper than Taylor Walker’s resurgence.

Taylor Walker of the Crows kicks the ball

(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

15. North Melbourne Kangaroos (up two)
What a difference a few months makes. The Kangas were being talked about in apocalyptic terms after their early season loss to the Western Bulldogs. They may have still lost the game, but it was a 99-point turnaround between matches for the Roos. The Roos are playing with substantially more hope. They dominated centre clearances (17-10), won disposals (367-345), and were able to play the game on their terms this time around. The Bulldogs have been something of a bugbear for them yet the improvements to the score lines sees them fly up the power rankings.

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14. Gold Coast Suns (up four)
A week is a long time in footy. The Suns have been under the magnifying glass for the past month as they’ve strung together the meek losses that have plagued them in the back half of seasons past and the viability of AFL in Tasmania became increasingly apparent. This win was extremely important for the Suns as they were able to surge the ball forward and pepper the goals with a multitude of scoring shots. Ben King put the Suns on his back with four vital goals for the inaccurate Suns, while Ben Ainsworth and Touk Miller were titanic in the midfield with 20 disposals and one goal, four behinds for Ainsworth, and 36 disposals and nine clearances for Miller.

13. West Coast Eagles (down three)
That was embarrassing for the Eagles. The performance from my Bombers was bad down at GMHBA, but the Eagles had a ‘hold my beer’ moment as they easily one upped the Bombers to be absolutely smashed by the Swans. It took until midway through the third quarter for the Eagles to get their second goal, and this loss would rival the embarrassment felt after the ill-fated Round 6 clash against the Cats. Particularly the choice to select Nathan Vardy, Josh Kennedy, Oscar Allen, and Jack Darling strikes me as odd when they’re going to be playing in very damp conditions. The 92-point loss leaves the Eagles in danger of falling out of the eight, bereft of any chance of making a splash come September.

12. Fremantle Dockers (down five)
The Fremantle Dockers had a spot in the eight up for grabs when they faced the Carlton Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground at their home fixture. The Dockers had several opportunities to ice this game, but the Blues rolled over the top of them with two goals, five behinds to a one-behind final quarter to leave the Dockers with the inaccurate final score line of eight goals, 16 behinds to 12 goals, eight behinds. While disappointing, the loss was also an extremely winnable game as they faced fellow bottom-ten side in Carlton. Justin Longmuir would regret both his side’s inaccuracy, and their inability to parlay their clearance dominance (45-26) into a winning score. The Dockers now face Hawthorn where both sides will be hopeful of redeeming themselves.

Dockers coach Justin Longmuir talks to his team

(Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )

11. Essendon Bombers (down two)
The Bombers went down to Geelong for the first time in 28 years, hoping to win there for the first time in 30 years. Unfortunately, it was not to be for the baby Bombers as their youth failed to get up and about for the game. The Bombers had nearly half of their side record ten or fewer disposals, with the majority of their forward line failing to fire a shot. However, as I made clear in my piece over the weekend, the Bombers are severely lacking in depth and with Cian McBride going down with concussion, they have no players that can take these roles.

10. Carlton Blues (up four)
The Blues will be asking if they can have more reviews if consecutive victories are the result. They now sit equal with the Bombers and Saints on six wins and remain (astoundingly) a mathematical chance to make the eight. A lot will have to go right, and other teams will have to lose before they can make finals, but things are nowhere near as dire as they appeared before the Adelaide game a fortnight ago. The match was bookended by 11 disposal quarters to Patrick Dow in the first and Matthew Kennedy in the last quarter. The scoring was also more evenly distributed with Jack Silvagni and Eddie Betts both contributing two goals to the final score.

9. Richmond Tigers (down one)
That was the second consecutive loss for the Tigers. It was the second consecutive loss in decidedly un-Richmond-like fashion. The Richmond faithful may cry foul and point to the 10-1 free kick differential in the last, but this statistic obfuscates the multifarious causes that have led to the Tigers’ decline. Chief among these reasons is the steady, implacable entropy of ageing with the Tigers taking players like Bachar Houli, Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and others as their over-30s brigade. Additionally, the Tigers are struggling with the younger talent they’ve brought in this year as they’ve struggled with the added pressure of AFL footy. Finally, this column is not all about the doom and gloom. I want to call out Tom Lynch, who was magnificent for the Tigers and he nearly won the game for them off his own boot. However, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Tigers train is officially derailed.

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Dustin Martin

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

8. St Kilda (up six)
The Saints have restored faith that they can accomplish something with this season in the past two weeks. The Saints were able to win both the disposal count (+33) and the tackle count (+10), which bodes well for their high-pressure, frenetic style. The Saints may be disappointed that they let the Magpies back into this match, but they’ve now drawn level on the ladder with Richmond and Fremantle leaving them just outside the eight now.

7. Greater Western Sydney (up five)
Greater Western Sydney desperately needed the win after unexpectedly dropping a match to Hawthorn. The match began as a nightmare with Jack Buckley going down with a suspected ACL injury in the first quarter. However, thanks to Toby Greene’s antagonism and some tough clearance work, the Giants were able to grind out the win and make it into the eight. There was also an element of luck to this win as the Demons could not take their opportunities when they presented themselves.

6. Sydney Swans (no change)
The Swans proverbially pantsed the Eagles. They hammered them down at GMHBA, revealing the Eagles’ hoodoo is not just limited to Geelong at Kardinia Park. The most impressive aspect of the win was how they had eight multiple goal kickers as Lance Franklin edged ever nearer to the remarkable 1000-goal milestone but it was the youth yet again that punished the West Coast Eagles. Sam Wicks and Errol Gulden continue to be extremely valuable Moneyball selections for the Swans, and they combined for four goals and 33 disposals. The Swans have nearly cemented a spot in the eight and super-charged their rebuild this year, which sees them make the top six of this week’s power rankings.

Josh Kennedy of the Swans marks the ball

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

5. Port Adelaide Power (down one)
It was some debate as to whether I have the Swans or the Power here. The reason I have the Power higher is because they’ve got the longer record. The Power faced the in-form Hawks and made them look second rate. They easily won the disposal count (+62), kicks (+71), and inside 50s (+14), and while some on this site are calling for Ken Hinkley’s sacking, it is undeniable that he has made the best of a bad situation. The Power can now look forward to getting the vital Zak Butters back this week with 21 disposals and two goals in the SANFL competition. The Power will face the Melbourne Demons in a vital Thursday night clash for their season.

4. Melbourne Demons (down one)
The Demons are falling faster than Lucifer from heaven. They have a fundamental game-style issue on their hands and it has resulted in them getting a split decision in the past six weeks. The loss on the weekend sees them in danger of falling out of the eight at the end of this upcoming round, so jam-packed are the upper echelons of the ladder. It is tempting to write off the Demons this year, but a couple of minor tweaks to their game style and they can easily challenge for a flag this year. They need to work on being more flexible at the contest, sometimes keeping a man-on-man style while other times allowing Steven May and Jake Lever to zone off again.

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3. Western Bulldogs (down one)
The Bulldogs would be surprised that such a drastic change has occurred in the North Melbourne Kangaroos in under the space of a season. Still, the Bulldogs were able to get the vital four points and ascend to the top of the ladder. The Bulldogs and their vaunted midfield surprisingly lost the clearance count (-7) and the disposal count (-26). However, it was the Kangaroos’ raw depth that failed to exploit the advantages that were gained from these stats, and it is not something the Bulldogs will give up if they had a full complement of players.

Luke Beveridge

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

2. Geelong Cats (up three)
The Cats are doing what needed to be done. They have won 98 of 109 at Kardinia Park. This is because the Geelong home ground is a weird shape that is 28 metres skinnier than the Melbourne Cricket Ground. The Geelong side were ruthlessly efficient going forward, scoring eight goals from 12 inside 50s in the second quarter alone. On the defensive side of the ball. The win against the Bombers provides vital percentage points for the Cats, however I am left questioning the cost as the win came with an injury to Jeremy Cameron straining his hamstring around the glute region.

1. Brisbane Lions (no change)
The Brisbane Lions are playing some extremely good footy now. They absolutely smashed the Crows in their backyard. They showed the importance of having a holistic trade and drafting strategy with Lincoln McCarthy, Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, Zac Bailey, and Hugh McCluggage all featuring heavily in the victory. The match was also a vindication of the 2017 draft class, which has often been viewed as the weakest of the last five years with the aforementioned Bailey and Brandon Starcevich each compensating for the loss of Cameron Rayner at the start of the year. Without considering the Lions’ horrendous record at the MCG, the Lions will go deep into September, and their performance on Saturday sees them go to the top of these power rankings.

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