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The real value of runs made lies in how they ultimately influenced your team’s chances of actually winning the match.
Consider these four imaginary batsmen.
Batsman A scores 44 not out at number 6 in a team total of 4 for 657 declared in which three batsmen make massive centuries. They win by an innings and 248 runs.
Batsman B is an opener who hogs the strike to score 44 not out chasing 55 to win in the fourth innings in a match his team has completely dominated from ball one. They win by 9 or 10 wickets.
Batsman C scores 44 (out) as his team’s highest score in a match won by 38 runs in which all 40 wickets fall.
Batsman D scores 44 (also out) as his team’s second highest score in a match involving a two-wicket victory where all 30 wickets fell prior to the fourth innings chase.
Which of the four has contributed most to his team’s potential success? Quite clearly, Batsman C, followed by Batsman D.
We can comfortably say that Batsmen A and B, both in scoring 44 not out, increased their team’s chance of victory by a massive 0 per cent. In the case of Batsman B, victory was as certain as the sun rising in the east, while in the case of Batsman A, defeat was as likely as celestial bodies suddenly changing to a clockwise direction of orbit.
What effect did Travis Head’s runs exert on Australia’s fortunes in the recently concluded first Test of the 2021-22 Ashes series?
The much-maligned Chappelli was just a touch uncharitable, in my opinion, when he allegedly said words to the effect of “Doesn’t really impress me – he made the runs when they weren’t really needed.”
The reality is that the match was potentially in the balance when debutante Alex Carey joined Head, who was yet to score.
Under the Renato Carini school of Test cricket, for a match to be in equilibrium at the completion of both teams’ first innings, the team that batted second needs to be leading by 50 runs.
This is an extremely sound principle, though it could certainly vary up or down depending on conditions and the difference in strength between the two teams. I believe 50 to be about right for the recent Brisbane Test.
Head wasn’t under any particular pressure when he went in at 3 for +42 in the second innings of the match. However, this soon changed when top scorer, Warner, was dismissed soon after (Head went in) and then Green was out first ball.
Suddenly, it is 5 for +48 with a debutante, Alex Carey, joining him. There was every chance that England could knock over both, and then the tail, to restrict Australia’s lead to around 60-70. A lead of 65, when bowled out, would have perhaps given Australia a 55per cent chance of winning.
Therefore, we can say that the match was in the balance when Cary joined Head, who was yet to score. At that point, Australia was probably about 60 per cent chance of winning. By the time Carey was sixth out, 41 runs later, the lead was now 89, so the pressure had relaxed from standard to mild. The other level of pressure, not at play on this particular day, is extreme.
Travis Head (Photo by Matt Roberts – CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images)
The ball before Carey was dismissed, Australia’s victory chances were probably in the 75-80 per cent range, his dismissal dropped it back to around 70 per cent, still clear of the 60 per cent when they came together.
By the time Head reached his ton, with the lead now 170-175, and 7 wickets down, Australia’s chances of victory were about 95-99 per cent. Had Australia declared at this point, England would then have needed to score at least 375 in the third innings of the match to leave a fourth innings run chase in an even game situation.
Head’s first 100 runs probably raised Australia’s victory chances by about 35-39per cent and that is not to be scoffed at. Batting on for another 100 or so to the lead, and of course 50 odd for Head’s personal tally, probably only further increased the chances of victory by no more than about 1 solitary subsequent per cent, with an equal solitary 1 per cent remaining for a draw.
Australia led by 196 with three wickets standing at stumps on day 2. Had they declared on that total, then, all else being equal, England would have reached 2 for +24 early in the third session of Day 3, and the inevitable collapse occurs in the final session of the day.
Then Australia is left with the elementary target of approximately 102 which still takes them until just after lunch on day 4, and maybe they lose 2 or 3 wickets instead of just 1.
Head’s first 90-100 runs were extremely valuable, while the last 50 or so (of Head’s 152 runs) contributed nothing more than increasing the victory margin from 7 or 8 wickets to 9 wickets.
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