I feel like we say this every year, but the 2022 NRL season feels like the most anticipated in recent memory.

While the off-season is normally a time for eternal optimism, here are eight things making me nervous heading into Round 1.

The creativity of the Brisbane spine

A dearth of experience, a lack of capable playmakers and a healthy dose of Anthony Milford dropped the ceiling of Brisbane’s 2021 campaign to hobbit height. Despite the cries of ‘Kevolution’, the 2020 wooden spooners showed minimal improvement.

They fielded the competition’s second-worst attack (18.6points per game), conceded the fourth-most points (29ppg) and not surprisingly finished 14th.

At the heart of their problems was an inability to manufacture opportunities. Between Milford, Brodie Croft and Tyson Gamble, I haven’t seen a less creative trio since Hanson. It’s little wonder that Brisbane had the league’s second-fewest line breaks (98).

Enter Adam Reynolds.

The nuggety human canvas arrives at Red Hill with a reputation as one of rugby league’s elite game-managers. But despite his world-class kicking game, Reynolds was rarely South Sydney’s primary playmaker.

Over the past three seasons, Reynolds averaged only ten try assists and ten linebreak assists each year, whereas halves partner Cody Walker averaged 23.3 try assists and 26.3 linebreak assists. So who’s creating opportunities for the Broncos in 2022?

Kotoni Staggs was rumoured to be joining Reynolds in the halves but he’s an unproven playmaker at this level. Billy Walters and Albert Kelly are replacement-level starters at best, the fullback position remains up for grabs, and Jake Turpin’s haircuts are more imaginative than his ball playing.

This team is still another 12 months away from competing.

Parramatta’s chances of breaking the premiership drought

One of the knocks on Parramatta over recent seasons has been their inability to get results against the top teams. They routinely bully lesser sides throughout the regular season only to be swiftly dispatched during the finals.

The 2021 season was no exception. The Eels, who finished sixth on the competition ladder, won 12 out of 14 games against opponents who finished below them on the ladder. Conversely, they won only thre of ten against sides that finished above them.

There seems to be no clear reason for this trend, but one theory is that they lack a genuine match-winner. A Latrell Mitchell or a James Tedesco, someone who routinely changes the trajectory of a game with a single play. And with Parramatta returning almost the same squad for 2022, it’s hard to see things changing.

What makes this upcoming season even more intriguing is their impending roster overhaul. Already the likes of Marata Niukore, Isaiah Papali’i, Oregon Kaufusi and Reed Mahoney have committed elsewhere in 2023, while the status of Maika Sivo and Ryan Matterson remains up in the air. It feels like now or never for Brad Arthur’s team. I’m leaning towards never.

Anthony Griffin’s job security

For such a mild-mannered man, Anthony Griffin is a highly polarising figure. Depending on which side of the paper line you stand on, his performance in 2021 was either worthy of coach of the year consideration or grounds for termination.

Griffin’s squad started the season well enough and came out of the Origin period in finals contention. But after Paul Vaughan’s lockdown box social, things unraveled. The Dragons went on to lose their final eight games by an average of 16.5 points and finished the season in 11th position.

Removing the bloated salaries and personalities of Vaughan and Corey Norman was wise but forcing out Matt Dufty seems ill-advised. The fullback may have lacked a stout defensive game, but he was the club’s most creative player. And no matter how many times Paul Kent attempts to justify it, moving on from club captain Cameron McInness was a bad bit of business.

To plug these holes, Griffin continues to do his player shopping at Costco, bulk buying the discarded and discontented in equal measure. Jaydn Su’A and Francis Molo will add some mongrel to the forward pack, but the signings of Moses Mbye, George Burgess and Aaron Woods only make sense if you own a DeLorean.

The good news for Dragons fans is that there are some green shoots poking through. In Jayden Sullivan, Tyrell Sloan and Talatau Amone, St George Illawarra are developing some quality young players at important positions. The bad news for Anthony Griffin is that it’s unlikely he’ll be around long enough to see them flourish.

Kalyn Ponga’s long-term commitment to Newcastle

Did you ever throw a party in high school where one of the cool kids showed up? They seemed to be having a good time but kept checking their watch, and when that better offer finally came along they were out the door faster than you could yell ‘Woodstock and Cola’.

I get those same vibes with Kalyn Ponga, and I think the Newcastle Knights feel it too.

It’s not that Ponga has ever wavered in his commitment to the Knights. He’s been an extremely marketable commodity and his on-field performances have won football games. But unlike a Boyd Cordner or a Nathan Hindmarsh, who bristled at the mere mention of change, I still get the feeling that Ponga is waiting for that better offer.

To help shut his wandering eye, Newcastle have brought back the Mayor of Merewether. Along with coaching up the halves, Andrew Johns will surely be tasked with selling Ponga on the Knights and the value of creating a rugby league legacy. Maybe they should start with a few schooners at The Beach Hotel.

In the end, the only surefire way to keep Ponga at the Knights would be to win a premiership. But with the departure of Mitchell Pearce and the injury to Jayden Brailey, that opportunity seems to be slipping away.

And it’s only a matter of time until the Dolphins come calling.

The Panthers making it back to the grand final

A major factor in Penrith winning the 2021 premiership was their energy and enthusiasm. Set after set and play after play, the Panthers exploded out of the defensive line like Dylan Napa possessed by the spirit of Adrian Morley.

It’s remarkable that Penrith have maintained this manic level of intensity for the better part of two years, but I wouldn’t be shocked so see a dip this season. History suggests it can be difficult to qualify for back-to-back grand finals, and a team hasn’t made three successive premiership deciders since the Storm cheated the salary cap from 2006-2009.

I’m not expecting a massive slump – Ivan Clearly wouldn’t allow it. It might just be the little things that creep in.

Does Viliame Kikau let his standards slip now that he’s secured life-changing money from the Bulldogs? Maybe the offseason noise starts to impact the performance of Apisai Koroisau? Or perhaps the Jarome Luai-Brian To’o bromance hits a rough patch?

The Mountain Men have also seen multiple players from their top 17 walk out the door. The departure of Brent Naden, Paul Momirovski and Matt Burton significantly weakens their backline, along with representative forward Kurt Capewell, who filled in at centre when needed.

The plight of the Panthers will ultimately come down to the performance of Nathan Cleary. Penrith’s favourite upper-middle bogan is already recovering from off-season shoulder surgery – can he withstand putting this club on his shoulders for another season?

The Warriors entrusting Nathan Brown to rebuild their roster

The New Zealand Warriors remind me of a storybook romance gone stale. Now two years removed from their fairytale COVID campaign, fatigued and homesick, this team is slowly but steadily falling apart at the seams.

It’s like checking in with Cinderella and Prince Charming two years after the ball, only to find them squabbling about an overdue electricity bill. The magic is long gone.

What we’re left with is a transient team lacking any real footballing identity. The roster is an alphabet soup of journeymen and redemption stories, and their only true superstar, Reece Walsh, is said to be unhappy and considering his options.

Nathan Brown finds himself in an unenviable position. His team are likely to be based in Australia for a third straight season – their chances of making the finals comical at best. The Warriors will head back to New Zealand in September as strangers in their own home, desperate to close the book on one of the club’s darkest chapters.

And they’re well positioned to conduct a full rebuild. Most of their players are unsigned beyond 2023, giving them the salary cap flexibility to sign some blue-chip recruits.

The Kiwi club will be craving a fresh start to help re-engage with their fans – fresh faces, a fresh culture, and a fresh brand of football. A fresh coach?

North Queensland’s prospects of winning a single game

The Cowboys have the least-talented roster in the competition. And it’s not even close. Outside of Jason Taumalolo, they don’t have a single player rated in the top 10 of his respective position.

And while Taumalolo is still considered a marquee player, a middle forward can only have so much influence on the outcome of a game, especially when his coach seems to be keeping him fresh for the 2027 season.

Valentine Holmes is a quality player but has rarely displayed the skills to match his pay packet. He faces his third positional switch since joining the Cowboys, this time trying his hand at centre.

Scott Drinkwater flashed some creativity in the halves last season but he’ll likely be shifted to fullback to accommodate the arrival of Chad Townsend.

Who else is there? Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is an exciting prospect but remains incredibly raw and inexperienced. Kyle Feldt has the experience but you have to question how much longer his body will hold together. Jordan McLean? The last time he played well he was dressed in purple.

This could be a very long season in Townsville. They lack the star power and depth to compete with the top-tier sides. Add in that fact that fellow bottom-feeders like the Bulldogs and Broncos improved over the off-season and it wouldn’t shock me if North Queensland failed to win a game in 2022.

Ricky Stuart’s plan for the Raiders

Ricky Stuart will coach the Raiders for as long as he wants the job. His work in rebuilding that roster and creating a winning culture have been exemplary. The Raiders love him, the people of Canberra love him and the rest of us love his press conferences.

But Canberra’s premiership window has closed. And the sooner Ricky stops trying to recapture the magic of 2019, the sooner he can begin to build the next iteration of the Green Machine.

The ingredients that made that 2019 side so special are either absent or have started to spoil. Gone are the likes of Aidan Sezer and John Bateman. Favourite sons like Josh Hodgson and Jarrod Croker will struggle to crack the starting side. Jack Wighton is coming off his worst season in years, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is facing a shift out to the wing and ‘Leipana’ has gone the way of the Dudley Boys.

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The spine, which was the driving force behind their premiership tilt, has now become a liability. Ricky’s ongoing quest to find a game-managing halfback to complement Wighton’s explosive running game has delivered Jamal Fogarty. The former Titan was mediocre at best in 2021 and wasn’t in Justin Holbrook’s plans moving forward.

Is Fogarty the answer? Is he the missing link that will propel this club from a tenth-placed finish last season into premiership contention? If not, what are the Raiders really doing?

This approach of treading water and hoping someone throws them a lifebuoy will see Canberra miss the finals again in 2022.