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Opinion
Geelong has been one of the most consistent teams in making the finals this century, only missing two years since 2004, but I think we will see them slide down the ladder to the point where they may miss finals in 2022.
For over 15 years the Cats have been a staple for September action, but their golden era rose and will fall with their captain Joel Selwood. They won their first premiership of the era in Selwood’s debut year of 2007 and went on to win a further two in 2009 and 2011.
Since then, Geelong have made it to five preliminary finals and one grand final, so it’s fair to say they’ve had a red-hot crack at claiming another premiership. However, the Cats are marching towards a rebuild and the longer they put it off, the longer it will take to see finals again.
It seemed at the end of 2020 that Geelong’s premiership window was closing with factors such as ageing players, and the departure of club legends Gary Ablett Jnr and Harry Taylor.
Instead of going to the draft and bringing in fresh talent to develop, they brought in Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins who were both in their 30s, and traded off picks 13, 15, 20, and a fourth-round pick to get Jeremy Cameron from the Giants. They did get a first-round pick back and drafted young midfielder Max Holmes.
These moves extended their premiership window by one more year but they lost to a powerhouse Melbourne team in the preliminary final where they fielded 11 players who were 30 or older. Lachie Henderson being one of them, who has already retired, and most of the other ten are likely to be playing their last season or two, which leaves a huge hole of experience in Geelong’s line-up.
Now that we are about to enter the 2022 season, Geelong needs to find a way to keep up with Melbourne, Bulldogs, Brisbane, and Port Adelaide.
The biggest moves for Geelong in the latest off-season weren’t for personnel on the field, but for their coaching staff. Corey Enright and Matthew Knights have moved to other clubs, and Matthew Scarlett has taken a year off.
The Cats brought in James Kelly as an assistant coach, Eddie Betts as a part-time development coach, as well as Harry Taylor and Matthew Egan. It will be interesting to see if these coaching changes have an immediate impact on Geelong’s style of football as they would want to lessen the load on Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield, and Tom Hawkins.
(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Depending on injuries, Geelong is likely to finish seventh or eighth this season and should be looking to be aggressive on the trade table to secure talented younger players.
Selwood and Hawkins may hang up the boots at the end of the year, and Dangerfield will spend more time down forward. This would make room for Max Holmes or Cooper Stephens to gain more experience in the midfield, and Sam De Koning to get regular games down forward as Hawkins, Cameron, and Esava Ratugolea are keeping him out.
The Cats also should think about which of their older players still have two or more seasons’ value and see if they can trade them off to make way for new or younger players.
Cam Guthrie and Mitch Duncan, although beloved by the club, are vulnerable to be traded just like what Hawthorn did by sending Jordan Lewis to Melbourne, and Sydney trading Hannebery to the Saints. Now both Hawthorn and Sydney (another couple of clubs with great finals records in the same period as Geelong) are on the way back after a short stint out of finals.
What Geelong do this season, and in the trade period, will decide if Chris Scott is on his last contract at the club and how long they will be rebuilding for, because a rebuild is coming.
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