It all comes down to this.

The final round is nearly upon us and while the Penrith Panthers are guaranteed to finish on top of the ladder for the second time in three years, there is still plenty to play out as the final structure of the NRL ladder takes shape.

This week I am resting my standard match-by-match round preview to deliver all the permutations that could potentially unfold in what shapes as an intriguing final round in recent NRL history.

It starts on Thursday night when the Parramatta Eels welcome the Melbourne Storm to CommBank Stadium, with the equation simple for either club: win and secure a double chance, lose and risk dropping to as low as seventh.

In the Storm’s case, their superior points differential (+255) means they are unlikely to drop any lower than fifth; this is due to the Roosters (+191) and Rabbitohs (+140), who face each other on Friday night, both having inferior points differential records.

In the Eels’ favour is the fact they’ve won their past three against the Storm, including when Ray Stone suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the act of scoring his side’s match-winning try in golden point at AAMI Park earlier this season.

They’ll also be hoping to have the support of the home crowd as they shoot for a third top-four spot in six years, but they won’t want this chance to go to waste; the past two times they’ve had the double chance (2017 and 2020), they’ve crashed out of September in straight sets.

If the season stopped now and the finals were brought forward to start this weekend, Friday night’s clash between the Roosters and Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium would be the second elimination final.

Depending on other results in the round, the two teams could be at it again in a knockout final, with the winner hosting at their home ground, so if the Roosters win, we could see these two teams at Allianz Stadium again in the first week of the finals.

The NRLW grand final rematch, between the Roosters and Dragons, will have the honour of being the first sporting event to be held at the ground, with that match kicking off at 5:40pm. A full preview of NRLW Round 3 will be provided separately, later this week.

As mentioned at the top of this article, the Panthers are locked in as minor premiers but coach Ivan Cleary has hinted that he will rest several players from the trip to Townsville where the Cowboys will be looking to record their highest-ever finish on the ladder (second).

For the Cowboys to have any chance of finishing second, they must beat the Panthers, and then hope that the Sharks suffer an upset loss to the Knights in Newcastle, otherwise a loss could see them drop to fourth, if the Storm beat the Eels on Thursday night.

That would lock the Sharks in to finish second, which would be its best regular season result since they claimed the minor premiership in 1999, and they would face either the Cowboys or Storm (if they beat the Eels on Thursday night) in the second qualifying final.

Having lost four of their past five matches, the past two by a combined margin of 95 points, the Broncos have dropped out of the top eight and find themselves in ninth position with a points differential of -26.

They must simply beat the Dragons at Kogarah Oval on Saturday night to reclaim their place in the eight, but they must then hope that the Wests Tigers spring an upset win against the Raiders at Leichhardt Oval to qualify for September for the first time since 2019.

Kevin Walters’ side must reverse a major hoodoo in the process, having not won at Kogarah Oval since 1998 and having only beaten the Dragons once since 2017 (in Round 17 this season).

Further, Dragons captain Ben Hunt has not suffered a loss against his old side since joining the Red V in 2018, having missed his side’s Round 17 loss at Suncorp Stadium due to being on Origin duty.

Should the Broncos’ Kogarah hoodoo continue, the Raiders will be locked in to finish eighth regardless of the result of their match against the Wests Tigers, and would face any of the Storm, Eels or Roosters in the second elimination final.

But if the northerners win, the onus will be on Ricky Stuart’s side to beat the Tigers just to guarantee their place in September, otherwise a loss would see them finish ninth – a position Tigers fans know all too well.

The Tigers are all but certain to claim the wooden spoon, their first as a merged entity, with their final chance to move off last place on the ladder dependent on the Titans suffering a huge loss to the Warriors on Saturday.

As a result of the Titans’ win over the Knights at the end of Round 24, which came two hours after the Tigers suffered a controversial loss to the Dragons at the death, the joint-venture have dropped to the bottom of the ladder entering the final round of the season.

From finishing ninth three times in a four-year period between 2016-19, a loss on Sunday would complete their fall from grace, from having gone agonisingly close to a finals berth several times to becoming a basket case and a non-destination club for prospective players.

This will be the 11th-straight year without finals football for the Tigers and it is unlikely their September exile will come to an end any time soon.

On the Titans’ end, a win could see them finish as high as 12th, and sentence the Warriors to their lowest-ever finish, the Auckland-based side having previously finished 14th twice (in 2004 and 2009).

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The Warriors-Titans match, as well as the Bulldogs versus Sea Eagles on Friday night, both have no consequential bearings as far as finals are concerned.

Below are all the permutations that could play out in Round 25.

The matches that matter

Eels (5th) vs Storm (4th) at CommBank Stadium, Thursday 7:55pm

The winner:

* will claim a double chance. Due to the Eels’ inferior percentage to the Cowboys, a win would see them finish fourth and face the Panthers, whom they beat twice this season, at BlueBet Stadium in the first qualifying final. The Storm could finish as high as third, if the Cowboys lose to the Sharks.

The loser:

* could finish as low as sixth and host either the Roosters or Rabbitohs in an elimination final. If the Storm lose, they’ll be more likely to finish fifth due to having a superior percentage to the Roosters and Rabbitohs, and host the Raiders in an elimination final.

Bulldogs (12th) vs Sea Eagles (11th) at Accor Stadium, Friday 6:00pm

* The Sea Eagles are locked in to finish 11th.
* The Bulldogs could finish as low as 14th, if the Knights and Warriors beat the Sharks and Titans respectively later in the round. The highest they can finish is their current placing of 12th.

Roosters (6th) vs Rabbitohs (7th) at Allianz Stadium, Friday 7:55pm

The winner:

* will finish fifth if the Eels lose to the Storm (in which case the Eels would finish sixth), and host either the Raiders or Broncos in the first elimination final. This would leave the loser to face the Eels in the second elimination final.
* will host their “rematch” at their home ground in the second elimination final if the Storm lose to the Eels. This means that, if the Roosters beat the Rabbitohs on Friday night, they’ll host them at Allianz Stadium again in the first week of the finals.

The loser:

* will finish seventh, regardless of the other results in the round.

Warriors (14th) vs Titans (15th) at Mount Smart Stadium, Saturday 5:00pm NZT (3:00pm AEST)

* in this battle between two of the bottom three, the highest the winner could finish is 12th, but that is dependent on the Bulldogs and Knights losing their respective ties against the Sea Eagles and Sharks. A Titans win would see the Warriors finish in 15th place.

Dragons (10th) vs Broncos (9th) at Kogarah Oval, Saturday 5:30pm

* the Broncos must win to temporarily replace the Raiders in the top eight ahead of the latter team’s clash against the Wests Tigers on Sunday. If both the Broncos and Raiders win, the former team will finish ninth and miss finals for a third straight year.
* a loss will see them finish ninth, regardless of the other results in the round.
* the Dragons are locked in to finish 10th.

Cowboys (3rd) vs Panthers (1st) at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm

* the Panthers are locked in to finish first and will host its first qualifying final at Bluebet Stadium.
* the Cowboys must win, then hope that the Sharks are upset by the Knights on Sunday, to finish second and thus host either the Sharks or Storm in the second qualifying final at QCB Stadium.
* a Cowboys loss, and a Storm win, would see the northerners face the Panthers again in the first week of finals.

Knights (13th) vs Sharks (2nd) at McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 2:00pm

* if the Cowboys beat the Panthers the previous night, the Sharks must simply win to reclaim second place and then host the Cowboys in the second qualifying final, otherwise a loss would see them travel to Townsville for this fixture.
* if the Cowboys lose to the Panthers the previous night, the Sharks will be locked in to finish second, and whether they host the Cowboys or Storm in the second qualifying final is dependent on the result of the Eels vs Storm match on Thursday night.
* if both the Cowboys and Sharks lose, and the Storm win, the Sharks will host the Storm in the second qualifying final.
* if the Cowboys, Sharks and Storm all lose, the Sharks will host the Cowboys in the second qualifying final.
* the Knights can finish as high as 12th, if the Bulldogs lose to the Sea Eagles earlier in the round.

Wests Tigers (16th) vs Raiders (8th) at Leichhardt Oval, Sunday 4:05pm

* the Tigers (-281) are almost certain to claim the wooden spoon for the first time in club history, unless they have a big win against the Raiders and the Titans (-206) suffer a record loss to the Warriors.
* if the Broncos are beaten by the Dragons earlier in the round, the Raiders will play finals unless their losing margin is 43 points more than what the Broncos are beaten by.
* a Raiders win will see them finish eighth, but they could also finish seventh if they rack up an unlikely cricket score against the Tigers and the Rabbitohs are thrashed by the Roosters.

Projected first-week finals fixture (with predicted times)

1st qualifying final: Panthers vs Cowboys at BlueBet Stadium, Friday, September 9, 7:55pm
2nd qualifying final: Sharks vs Storm at Pointsbet Stadium, Saturday, September 10, 5:40pm
1st elimination final: Roosters vs Raiders at Allianz Stadium, Saturday, September 10, 7:40pm
2nd elimination final: Eels vs Rabbitohs at Commbank Stadium, Sunday, September 11, 4:05pm

Notes

* neither the Sharks or Raiders were considered for the Friday night timeslot due to both of those teams playing on the Sunday in Round 25.

* the Panthers-Cowboys qualifying final would therefore be on the Friday night, just six nights after their meeting in Townsville.

* the slots of the two elimination finals could be swapped to avoid a clash with a possible Sydney Swans semi-final at the SCG. An AFLW Sydney Derby is scheduled at the ground for Saturday, September 10, with a starting time still to be confirmed.