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Opinion
There has never been a bigger trade in the history of the AFL trade period.
Four clubs. A whopping SIXTEEN individual moves, fourteen of them draft picks. Picks one, two AND three this year all changing hands, with the first pick belonging to a different club for the first time since Fremantle traded it for Trent Croad and Luke McPharlin back in 2001.
In case you need to get your head around exactly what the trade entailed, here’s Cal Twomey with every glorious detail:
So as is our want, let’s objectively rank Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, West Coast and GWS’ performance in this trade to end all trades. Who made out like bandits… and whose supporters will be filthy with their club’s list managers?
IN: Jason Horne-Francis (North Melbourne), Junior Rioli (West Coast), 2023 second-round draft pick (from GWS, tied to Collingwood), 2023 third-round draft pick (from North Melbourne, tied to Fremantle)
OUT: Pick 8 (to North Melbourne), pick 43 (to North Melbourne), pick 53 (to GWS), pick 57 (to GWS), 2023 first-round draft pick (to North Melbourne), 2023 second-round draft pick (to West Coast), 2023 third-round draft pick (to West Coast)
Port have genuinely made out like bandits here. Kudos.
The Power were adamant they wouldn’t give up a player for either of Horne-Francis or Rioli, despite the interest shown in Dan Houston by the Eagles and Zak Butters by North, and have somehow successfully navigated landing both while satisfying the AFL’s draft pick regulations.
Port’s pick 8 this year and 2023 first-rounder were always going to be lost, while they will most likely see their second- and third-round picks slide unless they can finish above both Collingwood and Fremantle next year – who knows with that, for the Power are a serious enigma heading into next year. But the real focus of that part of the trade was ensuring they retained second- and third-round picks in next year’s draft, due to AFL rules that a team must have a pick in every other round to be able to trade their future first-rounder.
The Power still hold picks 33 and 60 in this year’s draft, while next year, their first pick will probably land somewhere in the late 20s-early 30s, depending on how the Dockers and Magpies fare. But if Horne-Francis can recapture his SANFL form upon his homecoming, and Rioli add the craft and goalkicking nous at ground level to replace Robbie Gray in the forward line, then this trade will be worth every cent and then some for Port.
They’ve also handed Horne-Francis a six-year contract straight off the bat. No wonder he wanted to get home so badly!
Jason Horne-Francis of the Kangaroos handballs whilst being tackled by James Sicily of the Hawks. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
IN: Pick 1 (North Melbourne), pick 53 (Port Adelaide), pick 57 (Port Adelaide)
OUT: Pick 3 (to North Melbourne), pick 12 (to West Coast), 2023 second-round draft pick (to Port Adelaide, tied to Collingwood)
The Giants had one reason and one reason alone to enter this trade: they wanted Pick 1. And the identity of the young man they want to take is also pretty clear at this point: barring a major shock, it will be talented Western Victorian key forward Aaron Cadman.
Whether they were concerned North Melbourne or West Coast would make a play for Cadman with their earlier picks, the Giants were willing to give up plenty to rise up the order and guarantee the 18-year old Jeremy Cameron clone’s availability, including giving up two first-rounders this year, including one of the two picks they received from Richmond in the Tim Taranto trade, and the future second-rounder they nabbed from Collingwood as part of the Bobby Hill deal.
There’s a lot of pressure now on Cadman coming in, given what the Giants have essentially given up to get him – but GWS had a goal going into this mega-trade, and it was mission accomplished.
IN: Pick 2 (West Coast), pick 3 (GWS), pick 40 (West Coast), pick 43 (Port Adelaide), 2023 first-round draft pick (from Port Adelaide)
OUT: Jason Horne-Francis (to Port Adelaide), pick 1 (to GWS), 2023 third-round draft pick (to Port Adelaide, tied with Fremantle)
This draft period promises to be the most crucial for North Melbourne in quite some time.
Losing Horne-Francis was always going to be a blow, but depending on how Port Adelaide go next year, they could quite easily have allayed two number one draft picks into two top-five picks and a top-ten one. That’s about as close to breaking even as they could have hoped for given the situation.
Harry Sheezel will surely be one of those picks – the Sandringham Dragons prospect is silky-skilled with brilliant goal nous and an ability to create havoc in stints on ball. In short, exactly what the Roos need. As for the second, George Wardlaw, Elijah Tsatas and maybe even Jhye Clark will all be in the mix as elite midfielders – though Clark comes with the risk of being lured home to Geelong in a few years’ time.
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Gold Coast got trapped in a years-long loop of trading out quality players for draft picks, then having the players they brought in with those picks leave in exchange for more draft picks, over and over again. It’s imperative for North that they don’t have that happen to them this time around. It’s a sign of the risks attached, despite the fact that their two picks are likely to both be Victorians this time around, that has them in third.
IN: Pick 8, pick 12, 2023 second-round draft pick (Port Adelaide), 2023 third-round draft pick (Port Adelaide)
OUT: Junior Rioli, pick 2, pick 40
You don’t often see pick 2 changing hands – and it’s even rarer when only half of the pics returning back are inside the top 10 themselves.
As a comparison, Melbourne in 2013 traded pick 2, which turned out to be Josh Kelly, to GWS alongside pick 20, winning back Dom Tyson, a pick 3 from two years’ prior, and pick 9, which became Christian Salem. This Eagles deal feels more lopsided than that one – and it’s worth noting the Dees probably lost that trade.
All it takes is one Jarrod Brander-type disappointment with one of those high picks, and Eagles fans will be left to rue giving away pick 2. It was undoubtedly gutsy, and losing Junior Rioli virtually inevitable – you can make a case that what eventuated was a better deal for them than it would have been to simply have to trade Rioli to Port one-on-one.
But there’s a couple of young Western Australian men called Jedd Busslinger and Elijah Hewett that could explain everything. Before this, the Eagles’ second pick was down at 20 – still higher than Fremantle’s first pick once they traded for Luke Jackson, but still rising a non-WA team taking the punt on one or even both of them.
The Eagles could still miss out on one, but barring a surprise, surely one of that pair will still be available once pick 9 (it’s actually pick 8, but let’s be real, Will Ashcroft’s getting bid on well before then) rolls around. And now they’ve got a better than decent chance of nabbing both.
That’s the beauty of this mega-trade. History will say one team will come out of it worse off, but at face value, it’s quite hard to pinpoint exactly who. Everyone comes out of it with some key assets that they wanted, and everyone seems prepared to sacrifice a lot to get them.
Let’s circle back to this again in a year, eh?
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