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As the tours of the north begin and the World Cup looms a year hence, what is the balance of power amongst Test rugby coaches?
Ahead of a huge five weeks of games, The Roar ranks the top 10 coaches, including the assistants
10. Wayne Pivac (Wales head coach)
The Welsh rugby clubs are being stung like wasps in Worcestershire sauce. But the fact remains that you can put 23 excellent players on the pitch for the national side. When you have the ability to leave Alun Wyn Jones out and still field 1000 caps with ten British & Irish Lions, you are in every Test with a chance.
Pivac had an auspicious 2021 and won the Six Nations. In 2022 his side lost to Italy, and struggled to score. Their South African tour offered some hope, with Tommy Reffell and the boys going toe to toe until their legs gave out to a chop-and-change Springbok squad.
He has not captured the hearts of the Welsh rugby firmament. He seems like man in a rented house with a lamp not of his own choosing and drapes from a prior decade.
Wayneball is looking suspiciously like Warrenball without the wins. A pleasant World Cup draw awaits, but all paths suggest a knockout showdown with England, and a “brave defeat” short of the finals.
9. Gregor Townsend (Scotland head coach)
The Lions lost in South Africa. Let’s get that straight. That is what the history books will say and victors keep the spoils. The rest of the chatter is just noise and if we dissected every series that far, we’d find the same intestinal detritus.
A post mortem of why the Lions lost is far more interesting than assigning all blame to one clever, cocky waterboy. High on the list of failures must be Townsend’s role.
His vaunted attack ideas came to naught. His exotic picks fizzled. The unlucky 13 jersey never fired against Lukhanyo Am and much of the blame is laid at Toonie’s feet.
Now he has dropped the only Lion who took on the high Bok line (Finn Russell is inquiring about the job at 10 Downing Street) and deposed Stuart Hogg, handing the reins to fiery Jamie Ritchie who seems like every bouncer I ever wrestled.
Does he want only hard yes men? Weren’t Hogg-Russell the ‘generational’ stars a year ago?
More vitally, he seems to have no solution for the set piece teams in Pool B (Ireland and that irritating South Africa). It’s not black and white, but even two Grays aren’t the answer. Thankfully, he has a lock-light Wallaby outfit on deck, with big Will Skelton not available.
8. Dave Rennie (Australia head coach)
Speaking of coaches puzzled by why they lose, Rennie is tripling down on schemas which do not seem to work. Eschewing 33-year old London-based Rob Simmons’ 105 caps in favour of 33-year old Caedyrn Neville’s five caps when set piece accuracy will be the death knell of the tour from hell, and ignoring the merits of Lukhan Salakaia-Loto and Kane Douglas to instead make his bed with less polished Darcy Swain and Ned Hanigan; Rennie seems more stubborn than adaptable.
Obsessed with collisions yet ignoring the foundation upon which collisions sit, the chatter around Rennie is more about the timing of his exit and whether he or Rugby Australia will pull the string first.
He has not shown the charisma or ruthlessness oo discipline needed to win over the Wallabies core audience as a foreigner.
Townsend v. Rennie — the Dourness Derby — is intriguing first up.
Wallabies head coach Dave Rennie. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
7. Eddie Jones (England head coach)
England always has fifty good players but often lacks the synchronized five players needed to score tries against the best defences. Over his tenure, Jones has survived ‘reviews’ which usually lead to shedding assistants. The result has been an ever-weakened staff and an untouchable chief.
Restless Jones still opines regularly about rugby, food, drink, history, ‘social reciprocity, mate,’ referees and life, but lately it just all seems a bit stale. Boring, even. The cardinal sin in Eddie World.
Two consecutive dismal Six Nations have sapped the energy from Eddie’s carnival side show. The schtick is weak, even with a series won in Australia based on tight five bullying and poor Rennie lock picks.
The tries scored-conceded (8-8) in the 2022 Six Nations tells a story of ‘we are lucky it’s Italy, not South Africa’ in the competition.
Eddie Jones shakes hands with Nic White. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
But the Autumn series offers Eddie a lifeline: he will have the All Blacks and Springboks back-to-back to end the year. Courtney Lawes has a chronic head issue and this may clear the way for Owen Farrell to regain both the armband and the No. 10 jersey.
Get ready for inane and contradictory pronouncements aplenty.
6. Jacques Nienaber (South Africa head coach)
The quiet calculator coach with a maniacal focus on umbrella patterns in defence and exit-entry efficiency, Nienaber is still not seen as head man, because an irrepressible force of nature from the Wild Coast looms over his shoulder.
The three Bok losses in 2022 all have an unforced experimental error asterisk on them (Bok Lite in Bloem, the Dweba Debacle in Joburg and Adelaide) which is largely excused by Bok Nation, because of the rise of young guns Jaden Hendrickse (22), Canan Moodie (20) and Damian Willemse (24) and the reality of needing to know the World Cup backup picture.
Also, even if the Boks’ 2022 average 28-16 scoreline trails the All Blacks’ 30-19 in bonus points tourneys, the stingier tries conceded still wins more World Cups.
But a one-two punch of Tests in Ireland and France — both of whom have better packs than those the Boks faced in The Rugby Championship — posing as quarter final and semi final dress rehearsal will be a reality check.
There is also this big dancing, tweeting, drinking, rascal’s shadow.
Who is the coach, really?
5. Michael Cheika (Argentina head coach)
Cheika may add a women’s rugby team or even a Davis Cup gig to his ever-widening coaching portfolio.
His Pumas had their best TRC, being mathematically in the race to the last round and scalping New Zealand in one of their fortresses.
His manner has eased, whilst retaining his zeal, and there is a sense he has found refreshed ideas from a variety of sources. His team still suffers from territorial deficits, but is the punters’ dark horse pick to slither into the RWC semis.
Argentina’s EOYT is gentler than Australia’s in length, and fortuitously focuses on actual World Cup opponents.
When he was on our podcast, my sense was Cheika is a man thinking beyond the moment, past the question, and translating all of it into a meta narrative in which he wins.
Cheika is punching clever, not walls.
4. Fabien Galthie (France head coach)
France has one rugby godfather now. Galthie has outlasted all his rivals, some of whom are in the dock in Neuilly’s criminal court on corruption charges.
Less than a year from an opening ceremony planned to blow away any prior rugby spectacle, Galthie’s team is the pundits’ and bookmakers’ pick. Any opposing view is ridiculed as fanciful and heretical. Daft, even.
The received and common and accepted wisdom is France is the Boks up front and the All Blacks out back, more cohesive even than Ireland and happier than any group of Frenchmen have ever been since the Lido opened.
The tricky thing, as any champion will tell you, is to handle the higher expectations, to add new ideas when you are winning, and get over the fact that every team gives you their best effort.
A loss to South Africa, if it is based on pack superiority (as opposed to clever play off nine or 13) will puncture Galthie’s balloon because the plan is designed around never being beaten up front, but there is time to adjust before the big show.
3. Andy Farrell (Ireland head coach)
It was not long ago that northern league man Farrell had his neck on the block in many Irish circles. But the truth was the reformatting of game plan was never going to happen in one season.
Farrell never gave a Schmidt anyhow.
He is about as comfortable in his own skin as any coach on this list.
The monumental standardising, teaching work by Stuart Lancaster, Leo Cullen, and a host of like minded yet diverse personalities has given Farrell the fractal short pass diamondine pattern he wanted; reminiscent of the best league attacks, but capable of reloading in ways no other team currently has.
Ireland beat New Zealand in New Zealand in a full blown proper series. That is rugby reality.
Go toe to toe with Ireland in an open-scoring contest and you should lose.
The fly in the ointment is whether the French (shown in the Six Nations and by La Rochelle) or the South African approach (the URC offers a look, with the Bulls win over Leinster) fractures the fractal.
Is this pretty plan robust enough for a six- or seven-match street fight?
2. Ian Schmidt. I mean, Joe Ryan. I mean Jason Foster.
The All Blacks may only sport a 5-4 record in 2022 with worrying losses to home to Ireland and Argentina, and an ominous RWC-looking hiding by South Africa in Nelspruit, but they have the easiest Tour and should go to 9-4 because England can’t score tries.
Also, their metamorphosis from Dead Man Walking to Back in Black has largely been put down to coaches. Not necessarily Foster, who seems to have been dragged kicking (mildly) and screaming (meekly) to certain prop selections and friendly firings; but the results have been dramatic, with three wins to close out TRC, scoring at will.
Books will be written later about who did what to rescue the Kiwi season, but for now, we can glom them in one bag. Uncle Joe, sad faced Ian, and Jacked Jason are looking good.
1. Shaun Edwards (France assistant coach)
If there is one coach riding higher than all the rest, it is Edwards.
He may only stand 5 foot 8, but this dynamo scrumhalf who captained England juniors in league and union and has won more cumulative titles than any player or coach alive, seems to be the rugby attack code breaker par excellence.
Was Gatland really Gatland, or was that mostly Edwards?
More than just a diagrammatic guru, his KPI seems to be his savage heart and the collective savage hearts of his teams, who always seem to achieve their peak desire and fitness under his leadership.
Name your price, Shaun.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.