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The spring-autumn Test clashes kick off in Tokyo and Edinburgh this weekend. Four top ten teams clash.
Who is under the most pressure from each of them?
Scotland
Coach Gregor Townsend seems to have lost the plot. The best Scottish player in the world is Finn Russell. He runs the attack for Racing 92, in serviceable French, no less. He may have been the most effective Lion back in the South African series. He likes a drink or three. He is not a yes man. He has been dropped. The day afterwards, he led his club to victory over Montpellier with 18 points and three try assists.
Are there three better fly halves in Scottish rugby? Hell, nae.
All of this piles pressure on Toony. He was not a rule-following No. 10 himself. It appears the issue is personality; not precision or plan.
Scottish commentator Jamie Lyall joins The Roar Rugby podcast to preview this weekend’s clash at Murrayfield
Scottish rugby is run by just a few auld boys and they may not like the bricklayer on a million in Paris calling the shots. Toony went to the right schools, wrote a restrained autobiography (read: boring) and does not embarrass the viceroys.
First up is a limited, average Wallaby side, but with Scottish players not at Glasgow or Edinburgh barred by the window, you would almost make the visitors the favourites. How can that be, with several generational talents (Russell, Stuart Hogg, the Gray brothers, perhaps Hamish Watson) in the mix?
I suspect overcoaching. Too much Toony; not enough Tennent’s.
Lose at home to the Wallabies and the Finn-friendly fans will howl.
(Photo by Ross MacDonald/SNS Group via Getty Images)
The other Scot under the pump is Jamie Ritchie, newly named skipper after Hogg was cashiered, perhaps for having a man bun with plugs.
Ritchie has had moments of red mist before. He looks like a lad who wants to lead by example more than words. Can he steer the ship to a crucial win?
Australia
All year, I’ve written about the lock problem in Australia. It did not help that the All Blacks and Springboks have all-time great duos in place and the Pumas have a decent trio.
But also, Dave Rennie only used one Giteau card on a lock at a time.
He needs to use them all on locks, as I wrote here. Now the Wallabies are in the land of the lochs and lack locks.
Old Cadeyrn Neville and young Nick Frost are backed up by Ned Hanigan or Jed Holloway for this Test. Neville is 33 with five caps. There is an Aussie lock playing in the UK, Rob Simmons, who is 33, but has 106 caps and is a proven lineout caller and set piece engine.
Cadeyrn Neville (Photo by Getty Images)
Frost plays a bit small at Test level, Holloway has been one of 2022’s biggest disappointments and Hanigan can often struggle to stop big carriers on the gain line.
Down the home stretch, one of these four will need to claim a wobbly lineout from Folau Fainga’a in the cold rain blowing in from the Firth of Forth, as a big Scottish lock tickles their ribs and sledges them in incomprehensible and yet offensive prose.
Forget the Queenslander mining analyst Tate McDermott. If the Wallaby locks cannot secure contested restarts and lineouts, stop and start drives, find purchase in the Murrayfield soil at scrum, and make it over the gainline or stop a Matt Fagerson coming at them, it will be useless to have McDermott scampering about at the back.
New Zealand
There should be very little pressure on the All Blacks up against a plucky but shallow Japanese team at home. A comfortable win is all that is needed. But within the plot is a subplot: the last four or five places on the plane to Paris next year.
Three starters this weekend are in that puzzle: first the magic-footed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck who has the No. 12 jersey and will get some front foot ball and perhaps move to the wing at the end. He needs to show something good to stay in the selectors’ minds as a utility back.
Sure-footed Stephen Perofeta had a strong Super Rugby Pacific season and needs to show his game translates to Test level attack.
Finally, Tupou Vaa’i was my pick to be the third lock for the All Blacks, because I don’t see the hallway pounder prefect Scott Barrett as the third lock answer against England, France, or South Africa, and I see glue-handed Vaa’i as having unbelievable balance in contact and in the air.
If Perofeta, RTS, and Vaa’i show class, the All Blacks coaches will have a good problem.
Japan
Nobody is under the pump for Japan. The home crowd adores them. The coaches are respected. The players love their rugby lives and their non-rugby lives.
Win and they are immortals. Come close and they are heroes. Lose by a bit and they are the winners. Lose by a lot and it is expected.
Test rugby is the best rugby: but the pump of pressure is real.
Strap it on, one and all!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.