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Opinion
There was always going to be an element risk going up against a rapidly improving Japan with a less than full-strength side, as France found out this earlier this year.
While never headed during the 80, the All Blacks’ continued inability to concentrate and deliver across a full match could well have left them with an embarrassing mark in the loss column had the last couple of minutes turned out differently.
From cruising at 21-3 they went into the sheds at half-time with only a four-point lead and a whole different tone about the match.
We all knew a Tony Brown-coached backline would bring speed and variation but there were a couple of innovations worthy of special mention.
A lineout that retreated 20 metres infield for the throw thus producing a huge blindside to go back to and attack was well-worked, but perhaps the smartest coaching was in the positioning of Japan’s back three for kick receipt.
With Roger Tuivasa-Sheck playing in the All Black 12 shirt there was never any danger of a kicking game off second five-eighth nor a wide passing game, so Japan had no need to keep the full defensive line up flat and filled the back field with players, making it all sorts of difficult for Richie Mo’unga to find grass.
The All Black opening game plan of constantly going to the air was repeated to little effect apart from a couple of grabs from Caleb Clarke, AFL-style above his head, simple stuff that attention to detail from the New Zealand coaching team should have prepared better for.
The variation in attack play that has been evident in the way the last five games had gone, either by design for the day or a lack of in-game solving, and when the foot was lifted off the pedal at 21-3, momentum was really hard to get back.
But if one wanted to see real progression in this Japanese side look no further than their defensive lineout and the super compact formation they used for defending rolling mauls. Took the All Blacks completely by surprise and there was little in the way of rapid on-field problem-solving from the eight, which is something of a concern.
For the All Blacks, too many players below international performance standard clearly does not help when there is a Test match to be played, and with so many second/third/fourth stringers included, perhaps a cut down game plan could have been expected, but there was one innovation evident that was straight out of the old Joe Schmidt playbook.
They scored three tries by using Shannon Frizell (twice) and Sam Cane as the pivot for the wrap-around play in the first channel the way Ireland used to use tighthead Tadhg Furlong.
Worth asking the question here: at what stage did Sam Cane fracture his cheekbone which has cost him the rest of the tour?
(Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
With both he and Frizell coming back from injury it would have been expected an hour each, which is what happened with Frizell. That would have been enough to get some minutes into them before the Test versus Wales, but now the captain has gone, and if it has happened late in the game that is simply poor coaching.
There are three things that have turned this side around since the early season plummet down the world rankings. The new starting front row, the change in personnel and game plan off 10 and 12, the re-pairing of Frizell and Cane with the subsequent tightening up of the All Black ruck defence without the ‘loose’ loose forward, and now the rest of the tour goes ahead without one of these three critical development in place.
As we know selection has been an issue for this squad right form the off.
The 17 changes from the first Ireland loss to the win over South Africa demonstrated that the coaching team had accepted that big changes had to be made but the poor selection of the wider initial squad, and a publicly stated goal to not chop and change throughout the season meant that going to the wider squad for the Japan game demonstrated more than a few cracks in some personal skillsets.
Finlay Christie, for example, is going backwards faster than an Italian tank (should that be Russian now?). His decision-making and error rate are just not of Test standard. He has been picked to run and that is gone from his game, and it’s not hard to see Brad Weber being a straight swap in the 23 before the end of the tour.
But there is one major flaw in his game and it was evident again and again against Japan. He does not get a ‘picture’ of the game into his head on the way to ruck, so he is making decisions once he gets there, which slows the whole game flow.
(Photo by Koki Nagahama/Getty Images)
Remember your junior coach stopping a practice, covering your eyes and then asking you to identify the three best attacking opportunities and the three biggest defensive risks you are about to face? Could get a bit embarrassing that, and I reckon Christie would struggle in that same situation.
You could almost hear the engine begin to purr when Aaron Smith arrived as that game picture in his head is as much an advantage as his pass.
On The Roar‘s game day thread I posted two things prior to kick-off:
1. The battle of the loose forwards was going to be huge and needed to be won early
2. Tony Brown would go after the partnership of RTS and Braydon Ennor.
Not rocket science-level observations I will admit, but a couple of things that would have been foremost in All Black minds one would have thought.
A few of our fringe All Blacks have done themselves no favours this week, but not just in the above situations.
Hoskin Sotutu made a single tackle in that match, just the one – that does not happen in international rugby to a No.8 forward, it just doesn’t. If you stood still people would likely run into you more times than that.
After watching his efforts in Super Rugby this year there were some hopes that he may have turned the corner – but no, just not involved enough in the hard yards, and that early bounce out from a scrum when the ball was knocked on, all he had to do was place the ball and Frizell, who was there quickly off the side, scores, but no, the low-percentage personal play was elected and a scoring chance was spurned.
RTS and Ennor did themselves no favours as either a pair or as individuals. I counted at least three occasions when they both ended up going for the same space, and it was happening both sides of the ball. A tackle count between them of as many misses and made did not help. Watch the Japanese midfield isolate RTS wide on the right before their second try – it’s just good, basic rugby, executed perfectly.
(Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
There has been a whole lot of noise about RTS getting a start – I presume that will now quieten down. Just not enough skillset to play 12 for New Zealand and thus limits the options of all around him.
We have a very talented footballer with few real big-game minutes under his belt and while he is capable of producing moments like the inside ball off the ball over the lineout, I can’t shake the feeling that he has no intuitive sense of the game and struggles to put himself into the right parts of field when it doesn’t begin with set-piece ball.
The biggest disappointment of the day was Stephen Perofeta, and this may be because I really hoped he would bring his core skillset to the Test environment. He may well have been playing to instructions, but he got himself into trouble running the ball back more than once, and only kicked the ball a single time in the game.
The way he played for the Blues this year, swapping seamlessly in and out of the 10/15 roles, and the calmness and directness he has displayed when released to Taranaki was gone and with it went his commanding kicking game.
I understand it was his first start, and that black jersey must be heavy the first time you put it on, but that was a game he would want back again. The missed clean-up leading to the first try looked like a micro indecision that ended up with an expensive try conceded.
Tupou Vaa’i’s hands at lineout time raised a concern I didn’t have prior, and the continued selection of Nepo Laulala, a prior favourite of mine, now looks like an investment with rapidly declining returns.
So, as the tour heads off to Wales, a question lingers: has this squad been simply poorly selected initially, with the pick and stick approach a mistake, or is New Zealand simply not producing real depth of Test-quality individuals?
If it is the latter, injuries on this tour and at the World Cup are really going to hurt.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.