- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
MANCHESTER – Semi-finals are upon us, and with that, comes the intrigue. Last week saw the end of the one-sided clashes – in theory at least, given that England stuck 60 on Samoa less than a month ago – and now we’re into the tough stuff.
We’re also far enough along that we can compare and contrast, with the sample size growing and more analysis possible. So what have we learned?
Well, Samoa are a lot better than they were at the start of the tournament, for one, and England are better yet. The Kangaroos were always good and the Kiwis might be good, or might be rubbish, or might be somewhere in between.
We can be pretty confident how each side is going to line up, so let’s break it all down.
Right, well: the Kangaroos. I’m not sure Mal knows what his best team is, but they seem to be going great regardless, which will happen when all your players are really good.
I remain, as regular readers will know, wholly unconvinced on the policy of agile forwards over big guys, and that is about to be put to the test in Leeds on Friday night (Saturday morning AEDT).
Lebanon proved that it is more than possible to slow the Kangaroos down, and even though they didn’t get close to winning, they did make the Australian attack look less than fluent for long periods, especially in the second half.
Michael Cheika, as all of his players mentioned, took an active role in how the ruck worked – quelle surprise, you might say, from a rugby union coach – and got some rewards from it. Australia were blunted at times.
That said, they also – and Cheika said it post-match – blew the ruck apart in the first half and ran in so many tries that it didn’t really matter. So there’s that.
It’s obvious to say that this will come down to the forwards, but it’s obvious because its true. If New Zealand can win the ruck, they have the arsenal to win the game, but if they so much as draw in that area, the rest of the brilliance from Australia will shine through.
CLICK HERE for a seven-day free trial for your favourite sport on KAYO
Michael Maguire will likely opt for an entirely big man approach, with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves returning alongside the Bromwich brothers, James Fisher-Harris, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Joseph Tapine. Isaiah Papali’i was used off the bench last week and may well be again, with Isaac Liu edged out to allow Jared to return.
The calculation has to be that the Kiwis can win the middle, draw the spine and have the outside backs not matter. They need to bully the Kangaroos, and that’s possible, especially is Reagan Campbell-Gillard fails to recover from his leg cork in time.
The spine battle is enticing, especially with Joey Manu and James Tedesco to face off from fullback, but they’ll both be working off the back of their big fellas. Michael Maguire’s game plan starts and ends there, or, at least, it should do.
The Kangaroos have vastly superior outside backs and the idea of Josh Addo-Carr and Latrell Mitchell running with a head of steam will give Madge nightmares. His boys in the middle need to stop them getting the ball.
(Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)
The forwards, too, are crucial to the second semi – though they may not prove decisive. Samoa struggled so badly in the first game because England dominated the contact, but largely that was through their backs.
For all we’d heard about the much-vaunted Samoan backline, fresh off a Premiership with Penrith, they had no answer to hard carries from Dom Young, Tommy Makinson, Kallum Watkins and Herbie Farnworth. England out-Samoaed Samoa.
That was due to two major factors. Firstly, England’s defensive linespeed was too much and continually forced Samoa to kick under pressure, which aided the start of their sets. Secondly, Samoa, for want of a better phrase, entered the contact with too much ego. They wanted to run straight over England, whereas England wanted to find their front.
Obviously, it would be better for Samoa if they didn’t try to do that again. Against the likes of Victor Radley and Tom Burgess, it won’t work. There seemed to have been a direction to hit with the upper body and enable second phase play – just imagine Junior Paulo and you’ll know what that looks like – but it catastrophically backfired.
The other major difference might be in the halves. George Williams is close to player of the tournament at this stage and had the ball on a string with his short kicking. Joseph Suaalii has impressed with the ball from fullback but is still a rookie and has been ruthlessly exposed by worse kickers than Williams at times in this tournament.
The set ends from Samoa were dreadful in week one, and while some of that was a function of England’s linespeed, a lot was Jarome Luai being a bad kicker and Anthony Milford having one of his many off-days.
He had an on-day last week and won man of the match against Tonga, but he’ll have to be better still if Samoa are going to defeat a red hot England. My suspicion is that he won’t be.