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Opinion
The countdown to Round 1, 2023 has officially started – so throughout January, I’ll be looking at all 18 AFL clubs and doing my best to put together an optimum team for the new year.
I’ll take injuries and suspensions into account, but this won’t be a predicted team for Round 1 – think of it more as a guide to what your team’s best 23 (the 22 starting players plus the new unrestricted substitute) could look like as the year unfolds.
So far, Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton have been investigated: today, it’s the story of 2022, Collingwood.
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The Magpies were extraordinary in 2022, and in many ways simply defied statistical plausibility. Their midfield was ordinary, ranking 13th for average clearances and ninth for average inside 50s; and their forward line wasn’t particularly menacing either, finishing 11th in the averages for marks inside 50. Yet through sheer force of will, they grafted their way to a winning score 17 times.
With some new pieces added to the puzzle, and the one major one removed – Brodie Grundy – having been effectively replaced mid-season, it seems like the only way is up for the Pies. But appearances can be deceiving – if lady luck turns against them, and their incredible record in close games reverts to the mean, 16 home-and-away wins can shrink rapidly.
Put it this way: the Magpies will likely need to be significantly better in 2023 than they were last year to so much as maintain their top-four finish. But for Craig McRae’s band of miracle workers, one thing is certain: you can’t put a single thing past them.
The Pies have always been excellent at identifying hole-filling recruits – bringing in Luke Ball and Darren Jolly at the end of 2009 earned them a premiership 12 months later. And they once again looked to address the shortcomings of their list at the trade table in October, with the result a new face in the mix in every part of the ground.
Down back, that’s Billy Frampton. The Pies had their eyes on the fringe Crow for a big chunk of the season, and it’s easy to see why: at two metres tall, he’s got the potential to be the bona fide monster-stopper the Pies have lacked for the better part of a decade.
Barring injury, you can just about pencil Frampton in for first crack at the number one tall position. Nathan Murphy battled gamely as an undersized key back, but Frampton should be able to do what he couldn’t: stand the likes of Tom Hawkins and Harry McKay so Darcy Moore can be freed up as the star intercept marker he is.
Frampton’s arrival also pushes the even more undersized Jeremy Howe further down the key defender pecking order. Another exceptional reader of the play, the veteran is a quintessential cool head in defence to maintain the Pies’ structure behind the ball, while also providing an offensive option with his incisive kicking. With Isaac Quaynor and Brayden Maynard certain starters capable of minding the smalls (incidentally, I’d love to see Maynard recognised with the captaincy now that Scott Pendlebury has stepped down), the Pies will lack for nothing if Frampton can nail down the top job.
Expect to see Nick Daicos begin to spend more and more time in the midfield in 2023, after spending most of his debut year as an All-Australian contender on the half-back line. A lot of his role might depend on whether Pendlebury retains his on-ball role from the second half of last year.
Nick Larkey of the Kangaroos is tackled by Nick Daicos of the Magpies. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Despite forecasting a move to half-back, the former captain attended more centre bounces than any other Magpie from Round 10 onwards last year. With the Magpies adding more cattle in midfield (more on that later), he might be required less; and at any rate, McRae and the Pies will surely be keen to give Daicos as much exposure to the engine room as they can.
That leaves John Noble inching closer to the outer, but the one-time mature-aged rookie is going to be hard to dislodge from the starting line-up. Playing every game under McRae in 2022 and impressing with his courage and attack on the ball, expect him to remain in the Pies’ plans across the half-back line.
I’m not sure there has ever been a Brownlow Medallist viewed with as much derision from the footy public as Tom Mitchell.
The game has never seen a bigger ball magnet, but the value of his disposals has always been questioned – some of it fair, some of it not.
He’s never going to burst out of a pack Patrick Dangerfield-style and kick a running goal from 50, or light up a grand final like Dustin Martin, or clunck colossal pack marks like Nat Fyfe: but at his peak in 2018, he was the best clearance player in the game. 192 of them to be exact, at eight per match, along with a ridiculous 35 touches a game.
Collingwood’s strength last year was in rebounding from defence after losing the centre clearance. Their strength in doing that was why they made a preliminary final, but their weakness is that this deficiency in the engine room meant they were really only capable of narrow, heart-stopping wins no matter who they played – from North Melbourne all the way up to Melbourne.
Mitchell’s last few seasons at Hawthorn saw him transition to an outside role, especially under Sam Mitchell – a role that doesn’t suit him whatsoever. But the Pies haven’t picked him up to wind down his career playing second fiddle to the likes of Patrick Lipinski; he’ll be straight into the centre bounces, back to his trademark in and under role, and if he can rediscover his best, will go close to being the recruit of the year.
Tom Mitchell of the Magpies marks the ball. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
The Pies seemed to stumble on their ideal midfield set-up in the finals series: after spending the home-and-away rounds transitioning between the guts and half-back, Jack Crisp had a scintillating September that should shelve any doubt about his role moving forward.
The time is also now for Jordan De Goey to become the fully-fledged midfielder he has shown glimpses of being, but never put together over the long term. He was outstanding in the qualifying and semi finals before being kept under wraps by Sydney in the preliminary final, and at his best is the perfect mix of explosive speed and brute strength that the Pies need out of the centre. All Mitchell needs to do is get the ball in his hands.
The interesting one in this mix is Taylor Adams. His body let him down badly in 2022, but when fit he was a lock in McRae’s midfield mix. No doubt he’ll again spend more time in the engine room than outside it – there’s not really another role he’s suited for at any rate – and with De Goey likely to alternate as an attacking option in the forward line, Adams is the ideal next cab off the rank.
One wing belongs to Josh Daicos for the foreseeable future, but I’m not sure whether Will Hoskin-Elliott is the most ideal fit on the other.
He fulfilled a crucial role in the Pies’ transition play last year, but if the Pies are going to become a more clearance-oriented team, which the arrival of Mitchell hints at, then it may prove just as effective to have a Lipinski start on the wing at centre bounces and then join the rolling midfield group. He did that a lot in 2022, attending just 28 per cent of the Pies’ centre bounces but still around the ball enough to rank fifth for total clearances.
Steele Sidebottom is slowly getting phased out of his starting midfield role, but expect him to start at half-forward and roam up the ground where required. His footy smarts and clean skills are still too sharp for him to be permanently marooned as a small forward, but the one-time junior scoring machine could also prolong his career by a year or two if he can finish up as an experienced goalsneak.
The role of Darcy Cameron in the ruck is going to be fascinating: while his mobility around the ground and competitiveness in the contest meant the Pies hardly missed Brodie Grundy, McRae was never willing to trust him as the sole ruck. First it was Aiden Begg, then Mason Cox, with their ruck time split somewhere in the vicinity of 60-40.
It’s hard to see that changing, but with Daniel McStay added to the mix, who showed his ruck capabilities for Brisbane in the elimination final as a stop-gap for the concussed Oscar McInerney, the Pies will have to weigh up whether he simply usurps Cox’s role or not. More on that in a second.
Despite lacking a genuine spearhead – the admirable Brody Mihocek has always been more of a stop-gap – the Pies were always dangerous heading into attack in 2022. They’re blessed with a plethora of options of all shapes and sizes, with the fleet-footed Jack Ginnivan forming a damaging partnership with the mid-sized clutch king Jamie Elliott. When fit, those two are both undisputed locks in the best 22.
Arriving fresh from GWS, Bobby Hill is another near-guaranteed starter. Behind Mihocek, Ginnivan and Elliott, the now-departed Ollie Henry was fourth on their goalkicking charts despite spending half the year plugging away in the VFL, so there is a dearth of reliable goalscorers at the Pies.
Mid-season recruit Ash Johnson was good for a time as a quasi-third tall, but McStay’s arrival probably makes him surplus to requirements; meanwhile, pressure small Beau McCreery strikes me as an ideal substitute to have up their sleeve to be unleashed into a second half or tight final term.
McStay is guaranteed to be one of the talls – and the likely second ruck as well – while 41 goals in 2022 means, despite a lean end to the season, Mihocek should still be the main lynchpin in attack.
The wildcard in the group is Nathan Kreuger. The Pies like what he brings to the table enough to make him their medical sub for two of the three finals despite having not featured at AFL level since the opening minutes of ANZAC Day. A rangy tall who even took over from Cox as backup ruckman in the preliminary final, he’s yet to truly bed down a position, but has undoubted potential.
With McStay a capable second ruck, the Pies can play him, Kreuger and Mihocek in the same forward line without making themselves too top-heavy. It also gives them alternate options they lacked in 2022 when Mihocek was quiet: neither Cox nor Cameron were overly influential in attack last year, and with this new trio of genuine forwards, they won’t have to.
Backs: Isaac Quaynor, Billy Frampton, Jeremy Howe
Half-backs: Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard
Centres: Josh Daicos, Jack Crisp, Patrick Lipinski
Followers: Darcy Cameron, Tom Mitchell, Jordan De Goey
Half-forwards: Steele Sidebottom, Daniel McStay, Jamie Elliott
Forwards: Bobby Hill, Brody Mihocek, Jack Ginnivan
Interchange: Taylor Adams, Nathan Kreuger, John Noble, Scott Pendlebury
Substitute: Beau McCreery
Emergencies: Ed Allan, Ash Johnson, Nathan Murphy
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