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We are told rugby has reached its first grand age of parity.
Peerless New Zealand has been reeled in by the Irish, the beefy French have caught burly South Africa, scratchy England has erratic Australia’s number, bold Scotland owns the Calcutta Cup, Wales does not slam grandly any more, and the Italians, Argentines, Georgians and Japanese have annual upsets.
But the parity is more a product of matchups.
The All Blacks still routinely tar and feather Wales and Australia, the Springboks do not truly struggle with Scotland or Argentina, and the intricate Irish Way works a lot better against running sides who do not smash the ruck. Yes, as many as eight teams could have a say in who does not win the Rugby World Cup, but only four shape to have the hardware and software to win it all.
The 2023 Six Nations may also play out in this way. If Wales continues to dominate the Scots this weekend, it will be confirming a longer tale: that very few teams are capable of winning a big trophy and they tend to be the same ones.
Thus, the match of the second round is set up to be the French visit to Dublin.
Ireland seems to have hacked the secrets of rugby at the moment.
Little big things are supporting their attack: carriers tuck and roll at just the auspicious moment to give even an ache-kneed halfback like Conor Murray a smooth swoop; props carry the ball in two hands and deliver soft, short pops; aging flyhalf Johnny Sexton throws empathic and telepathic passes; forwards cut back to the middle instead of the outside; and runs are not maximised to avoid isolated turnovers.
I watched the Leinster schools final between St. Michael’s College and Blackrock College from 2022. It was clear to see the influence of the Test side on these students: the players seemed to know where to be, props popped passes, hookers were key cogs in the wheel, ball presentation was a focus, the kicking was superb, and there was a distinct lack of top end size and speed.
Ireland has adapted to rugby and adapted rugby to its own resources.
At the moment, in this Six Nations, unless France finds form (courtesy of 40 hours of Shaun Edwards rancour) this weekend, it seems like a glide path for Ireland. Farrell’s team is best organised; if the tournament was being contested by various crime gangs, Ireland is a proper Mob, with distribution chains and redundancy planning, all overseen by a real captain on and off field.
Scotland is a bit of a smash and grab motorcycle gang, scoring four tries at Twickenham with less than 30 percent possession.
The first round was dominated by themes of new coaches struggling to turn the ship around, Warren Gatland’s fizzle, wonder tries by superstar Duhan van der Merwe, and questions around French fitness.
My team of the round would be:
Ellis Genge, Dan Sheehan, Finlay Bealham, Richie Gray, James Ryan, Jamie Ritchie, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris, Ben White, Johnny Sexton, Duhan van der Merwe, Sione Tuipulotu, Garry Ringrose, Max Malins, and Hugo Keenan.
Eight Irishmen is fair and it could have been more.
All the teams face big questions ahead of the second round.
Can England Stop Soft Tries?
The English attack had atrophied under Eddie Jones to the point of utter impotence in the Six Nations. Single digit try totals two years in a row, no less.
Steve Borthwick and Nick Evans clearly brought more angles to the attack and found space, but defensively, England was woeful.
The Marcus Smith and Owen Farrell combination mostly gets evaluated on attack, but the truth is it fails on defence. League legend Kevin Sinfield was given a taste of how quickly lost ball in Test union can turn into points.
Yes, van der Merwe seems like a Teutonic Lomu, but no Test team should ever be able to score from one player going up the middle from 60 metres out.
(Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images)
Italy has also shown skill in scoring. If the English kick chase is as poor this week as it was last, the boo birds will be heard again at Twickers.
Borthwick is probably right about the low state of the team he was handed but Italy is still a team England should always beat at home, handily. They cannot give up tries as easily as they did last week.
Can Wales Use Experience with Youth?
Warren Gatland ran an experiment last week by going with his old guard. There are good young players in the wings, but the mix of new to old is the key.
Gatland cannot throw the tournament away, but could risk a bit more to find out more. He has never been afraid to make big calls and changes, but he also has a penchant for allowing great old players to come back from a defeat. First and foremost, he will need his team to convert more than 2 of 12 chances.
Will Scotland Fade Again?
This is not the first time a triumphant Scotland has faced a less-heralded Wales the week after winning the Calcutta Cup. Gatland has never lost to Scotland with Wales, and Wayne Pivac also had good luck against Gregor Townsend. So, is this the real deal or will Scotland fade again?
There does seem to be a 7-10 point gap between the teams at the moment, and the game will be in Edinburgh. There may not be a better chance for Townsend’s men to challenge to win the trophy for the first time since 1999.
Can Ireland Go Wire to Wire?
Being the favourite heaps pressure on a team. Ireland is attempting to do something even more difficult: stay number one for over a year, spanning the World Cup.
Their form is stellar, their troops all know their brief, and they host the French. But in sport, pressure is a headlock. A few mistakes here and there, an untimely injury, a card perhaps, and a bitter loss could ensue. With France lying in wait in the quarterfinals, perhaps, that would put a large dent in confidence.
Will the French Stay Legal?
France incurred 18 penalties in the first round. It is safe to say that if they do anything similar to that, Ireland will win, going away. Edwards will have been steaming all week. Expect a more accurate French team this week.
Can the Roman Fairy Tale Go On?
Italy is a bit like Argentina in The Rugby Championship. A big upset. Maybe two. But in the end, they simply do not have the weight and numbers. Still, there is nothing “foregone” or “concluded” about their Round Two match in London.
A most fascinating Six Nations continues this week: all of it in the backdrop of the biggest tourney of all.
Parity may be the winner this time.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.