Few factors are sure to win you a World Cup. A deep and dominant pack backed by the best scrumhalf, clinician finishers, and a deadeye kicker – in one team with continuity, caps, and coherent coaching – makes a top contender.

But a multitude of things will lose it.

Poor play from the flyhalf position is merely one of them, but as the most visible player on the pitch, held to account from sofas and seats near and far, fulcrum of a hundred podcast and talk show debates, and described as field general or coach on the field, and usually the bet-the-business kicker, it matters most. An out of form flyhalf can torpedo a strong pack and backs.

The narrative, repeated for at least four years but possibly for as long as rugby is played, about winning, or losing, a pool qualifier or finals match in the final minutes, focuses on the ten, who calibrates the run-pass-kick-long-kick-short menu more than any other man.

Flyhalf controversies animate rugby Twitter: Beauden versus Richie went on forever and maybe is still being chattered about in some Auckland barber shop.

Bad flyhalf, no Cup. Or as Stephen Donald taught us: every duck will have his day.

Not every team needs a king at ten. The Britons and Celts tend to anoint their flyhalves as team leader; whilst Gallic and South African doctrine bases more on the nine. Joel Stransky, Butch James, and Handre Pollard were not in the middle of the Bok trophy portraits, but fit the Springbok street-smart template.

Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand yo-yo between mixes of nine, ten, 12 and 15 depending on talent and coach.

Part of parity, which is deeper than ever, is no current top ten team appears disqualified from Cup honours by virtue of their starting tens. (Some backups may lag the Donald Duck test).

The Six Nations is pitting at least six fine pivots against each other at the moment, centurions and young guns blazing. New tricks are being learnt by old dogs. Ancient legs still have life.

Johnny Sexton is running. He has carried the ball 111 metres in two rounds, already, even with limited minutes. His peer Finn Russell has 30 carries along with his almost 50 passes.

Dan Biggar has battled manfully in a losing cause: his three offloads and two try assists a scant silver lining in dark red clouds.

Lower on the cap list is Romain Ntamack, who does not kick for poles, nor take responsibility for most exits, but has made 49 mostly good passes.

Marcus Smith was demoted (England’s replacements are no longer the cringe-inducing ‘finishers, mate’); thus, he and injured rising Italian star Paolo Garbisi are not leading actors yet in this version of the Six Nations.

Comparing Test and club rugby, even using on the highest levels of competition, is tricky.
But given 2023 is first, foremost, and forever a Year of the Cup, it is pure rugby pundit fun to compare apples to oranges.

Who are the top ten tens in world rugby at the moment?

Disclaimer: if Quade Cooper were fit, he might be in the top three.

First, we will divide the ten into the generals, the riflemen, and young commandos.

The Generals

1. Johnny Sexton: The co-author of a famous All Black series win, Johnny Sexton should have been named World Player of the Year last year. Perhaps being left out of the 2020 Lions tour animated him.

He was weeping at anthems before besting the French, perhaps fully aware at 38 that each moment is as precious as gold. A case can be made that Ross Byrne’s greater athleticism ignites the Irish fractal pods even more sharply than Sexton’s pedestrian plodding but it is the phenomenal decision making of the old man, along with his attention to detail, calm accuracy with kicks to touch or to space, and commands the utmost respect of his entire team.

Ireland is going deep into phase count and using shorter passes to get to wider channels than any other top team; this requires a high degree of on-field communication for resets. Sexton is truly a metaphorical general, on his horse, on the hill, with the long scope. Is Sexton overrated because his pack is better than Russell’s (and most teams, when fit, except France’s and South Africa’s)? Or does he actually help make the pack better by choosing so many correct options by hand and foot? He gets the nod due to his consistency.

2. Finn Russell: The full range of Finn’s mercurial magic has been on display in two rounds. Always a better goalkicker than generally believed (he outduelled Owen Farrell at Twickenham and the kicks were not easy), the insouciant Scot can sometimes be too casual in the pass or on the break. He did not have a good first half at all in the Calcutta Cup.

Rewatch it if you will: scuffed kicks to touch, nonsensical carries, whimsical passes missing the mark, and a misread on defence. However, he has ruled the second half of both rounds, almost as if he is a golfer who can fix his swing on the back nine. The way he shepherded his team to victory over England in the final stanza, with variegated passes of exquisite weight, kept the defence guessing with his stuttering gait, and saw space as it could be instead of how it was; this was fly-half masonry of the finest quality.

Scotland have scored nine tries already and only a couple lacked Finn’s clever touch. As the third Test in Cape Town’s empty stadium showed, he is a better clutch operator than Biggar with the same pack. To nose ahead of Sexton, Russell showed a better range of vision. He is more peripheral and keeps his head up at all times.

3. Dan Biggar: When Warren Gatland and Gregor Townsend sat down before their biggest Test (the decider against the Boks) they presumably debated Dan vs. Finn. Before they left Jersey, those two had won the debate with Sexton. The rest is history: neither of them meaningfully outplayed Handre Pollard.

Is Biggar a general or colonel? Or perhaps just a mouthy lieutenant? Maybe it is unclear. He fights to the last and chases his own kicks. Could he be in fact a sergeant-major who takes over because all the officers are gone? The more I ponder this, I think he is the latter. He’s the last coalminer after all the strikes, the marooned man who survived to tell the tale, the soldier who survived the purges, and because nobody else seemed fit or ready, got all the stars on his epaulets. Am I harsh? Not at all. Nobody has warred harder and more honestly than Biggar for his country in rugby lately. If this were tennis, he would be the Andy Murray to Finn’s Federer and Johnny’s Novak. (Who is Rugby Rafa? See below).

The Riflemen

There is a vision of a flyhalf which is more of a sniper than a pivot. A marine sniper, never shirking work, but not overly fancy or strategic, always working to get a better position, but still making the long shot, the long pass, and the long break. A ten who can play 12.

Here we have two men who faced off in the last Rugby World Cup grand final. Both are lambasted by fans for being one dimensional, and yet can play all 80 by sliding over.

Both kick better when pressure is higher. Both are physically stronger than the other tens.

1. Handre Pollard: Pollard plays this position into contact more often than anyone other than Farrell. He can be seen in the picture for conceded tries, scrambling or sliding; his missed tackle stats correlate with how hard he tries to find contact for a flyhalf.

In a one-on-one matchup with another ten, Polly can just shoulder or hip his way over the gain line, setting a ruck closer to the set piece than most, and allowing a solid recycle. He tends to decide early to go or not, with the occasional exception (the lovely dummy go and kick-pass to Makazole Mapimpi who he had nodded to, in the Lions series an example) proving the rule.

If rugby had a plus-minus rating for tens in knockouts over the last eight seasons, he would stack well, because he rarely loses a match for his team early. After a horror run of joint injury, Pollard has shown his class for Leicester Tigers.

The super physical performance coach from the Boks’ win in 2019 and now with England, Aled Walters, mentioned Pollard as one of the players who amazed him with natural strength. Yes, Damian Willemse had a few exciting games in 2022, but Gazza was seen in the beginning of 2022 as the answer for Frans Steyn’s age and Willie le Roux’s grumpiness and he proved to be that answer.

In fact, Willemse is likely player 15 instead of 23. But Pollard is still the incumbent flyhalf of the reigning world champions, and only a naïve rugby watcher would see him start in a knockout in France and think: the Boks are weak at ten. He would be in his third consecutive Cup run (lost to Dan Carter in the Twickers game in a semifinal by two points in 2015) and is just not afraid of big moments or the big stage. Skill? It is the tightness of his long spiral on the pass or kick, as well as the ability to find calm in pressure.

2. Owen Farrell: The Nadal of rugby. He has no surrender and relishes misery. A few mechanical flaws in the shoulder. A grunt. A grinder. He has won his spot back at England.

It is his certainty, more than his accuracy, which defines his style of play. He will not hold back to see a better line of sight: he is taking his shot. Like Pollard, he has a high velocity whip pass to either side of the field. When he is in charge, he feels good. The last few years, he has heard whispers and then shouts, but here he is, still standing.

If Borthwick recruited Pollard for his Tigers (he did, personally and patiently) one would bet it will be Farrell in a quarterfinal across from a Wallaby ten, if this transpires. Which ten will Eddie Jones believe in most, in that situation? Faz is not everyone’s cup of tea, but he plays an old school game (whether it feels like League or Union) and old school is never universally adored. He slides in behind Pollard for one reason only: potential cards for his height and technique.

3. Beauden Barrett: Barrett has lost the duel with Richie Mo’unga for All Black ten but he would probably start for plenty of Test teams at flyhalf. He is a different sort of sniper than Polly and Faz, because he is not as good off the tee, but he has their comfort for contact, a long pass, and can create breaks by kick pass or his own carry and speed. If Mo’unga were to go down in France, Barrett would be a cut above the other backups on the tough side of the draw. His flaw, besides goalkicking, is dealing with the rush defence, but his teammates have plenty of faith in him, and he is never out of a match. He is the smallest of the three All Black Barretts but he is deceptively strong and long.

The Young Guns

1. Richie Mo’unga: Yes, it is a stretch to call the Christchurch man ‘young,’ but he is still lean in the waist, 28 and looks younger. He plays young. He is not really a general, either. He may develop into more of a sniper if injuries slow him, but for now he can run his way out of (or into) trouble, carrying less than 90 kilograms on his spritely frame.

He is the best of this category. He plays fast and yet it looks always as if he is in slow motion. He can score quickly, many ways, and in bunches. He also seems to lack an overbearing ego, unusual in a flyhalf as talented and smooth as he is. Count him out against Romain Ntamack or the Irish flyhalves at your peril. He welcomes the big game.

2. Romain Ntamack: is not the general of the French team, nor does he take the big kicks. But he is clever in space, daring on the trigger, and has already made 49 passes in the Six Nations, the most of any non-scrumhalf. This suggests the cunning old nine Fabien Galthie has a different view of what his ten must do. Ntamack is even more dashing than Mo’unga but with ball in hand, looks similar. He is comfortable in his role and won’t worry about his status in the band. He really is a young player in many ways: he has not yet seen all the things that can go wrong. Thus, the French go in to the Cup with an unknown: will their flyhalf be able to steer the ship when it is on the rocks?

3. Paolo Garbisi is healing from injury. He is just 22. If Italy had him at Twickenham last week, it may have been a different story. For the French Test, it seems likely he would have been bolder than Tommaso Allan. He is not afraid to take a risk. He is one of the more accurate goalkickers out there. He has shown supreme talent at Montpellier.

4. Marcus Smith has struggled, without his Harlequins sidekick Andre Esterhuizen, to translate his club form to Test level. Some of that is because of his defensive posture. Some of it is the oddity of sharing space with Faz. If he slips further, Noah Lolesio could be the one to step up into this place.

So, if we mashed these three categories together, what would the order be? I’m going with:

1. Johnny Sexton
2. Richie Mo’unga
3. Finn Russell
4. Handre Pollard
5. Dan Biggar
6. Owen Farrell
7. Romaine Ntamack
8. Paolo Garbisi
9. Beauden Barrett
10. Marcus Smith