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Opinion
Would you rather have a teleporter or a time machine?
Hawthorn fans would probably choose the time machine, harking back to the halcyon days when they had a short, successful Tony Soprano sitting in the head chair instead of a short, successful-at-something-else Artie Bucco when he gets into loan sharking.
That’s all the gimmick is here. It isn’t complicated, and I’ve used it before around offseason jargon. I should have waited until after the practice matches to write that one in hindsight. It’s good to know every trade, no matter how much was given up or paid to marginal players, has already paid off after the first practice match.
That’s a relief for Ned Guy, I’m sure.
This time we’re just going to pit clubs against each other for the next either three or five years, taking everything into account, from list profile to aura of success, and decide who we would rather be.
This one is easy. Melbourne has ripped everything from Richmond. There’s trying the Richmond model and then there’s just copying the whole damn thing. There’s just one problem: Melbourne isn’t as good at any of it. For instance, the Tigers have never had a star player punch a teammate at a French restaurant. They also made the prelims four years in a row.
On the field Melbourne and Richmond will be close to one another this year, but it’s in the following two years that the clubs will separate. Richmond is doing the Geelong model of rebuilding while contending, developing younger draftees like Noah Balta, Josh Gibcus and Shai Bolton while also topping up with prime talent like Tom Lynch four years ago and now Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto. It’s true that Melbourne’s best players, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, are younger now, but there is far less waiting in the wings for the Dees than there is for the Tigers.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
I know Melbourne signed Brodie Grundy. Congratulations. If a club tells you what they think about their big-ticket ruckman who they see in training every day, listen to them.
Beyond that, Melbourne are plagued by the same disease that Collingwood has been since Travis Cloke fell off the cliff: they cannot find a forward. Kareem Abdul Jabbar’s knees are currently in better shape than Ben Brown’s, Bayley Fritsch is talented but has never met a shot he didn’t like and Max Gawn simply isn’t a forward.
Finally, Melbourne just seemed to lose interest in pressuring the ball last year. They gave up the third most rebound 50s per game, third most kicks per game and fourth most marks per game. They were joined in those categories, almost exclusively, by Hawthorn and North Melbourne – not exactly illustrious company.
Melbourne have won one and are fat and happy with it. The Tigers have won three but don’t appear to be done yet.
Verdict: Richmond.
Let’s head down the other end of the ladder for this one. In one corner you have an expensive middle-aged and profoundly average list with a has-been head coach. But there are a couple of genuine guns in premium positions that are still young enough to be in the next premiership team – if a premiership team wasn’t just a concept to St Kilda.
In the other corner you have a much younger list – albeit one that is not exactly full to the brim with players who have shown much of anything at AFL level – and a club legend and favourite son as coach. At least that part of it usually goes well.
To be honest, the answer to this one is that you’d rather just follow a different sport.
Based on the talent on the list and St Kilda’s hot start last season, you have to lean toward the Saints, especially given Max King is contracted until 2024 and did the deal well before he had to. St Kilda just have a better list. The Hawks don’t have a single player that approaches the level of King, Rowan Marshall or Jack Steele (spare me, James Sicily truthers).
(Photo by Steve Bell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
But the Hawks are a blank slate. Where St Kilda are the 11th oldest list with the 11th most experience in terms of games played, Hawthorn are the youngest list by basically a full year with the least experience by ten games. The Hawks have torn it down to the studs, and they know it.
If they don’t have anyone to build around on the list today, who cares? They are backing themselves to continue to be successful and have it turned around sooner rather than later.
For 2023 and probably 2024, this is easy. It’s the Saints and it isn’t close. For five years it’s a coin toss.
Verdict: Hawthorn, just.
This one is relatively cut and dry as well. Collingwood were intoxicating last year. They were next to last in virtually every single relevant statistical category. They haemorrhaged clearances, never had the ball and when they got it they couldn’t keep it. They weren’t really much good at anything last year – other than all the winning.
They were an average side that won a lot of close games. This was borne out in their percentage, which sat at 104. The next worst in the top eight were the Bulldogs, who sat at 109. Their percentage was closer to Gold Coast at 103 than any other top-eight side. Collingwood won 16 games and finished fourth. Gold Coast won ten and finished 12th.
It was an absurd season that is virtually impossible to recreate. Ask the 2022-23 Minnesota Vikings. Close-game luck is a real thing and inevitably, after a season like the one the Pies just had, they are statistically very likely to fall back down to average.
The issue, though, is not that Collingwood had that incredible season. It’s that they think that incredible season is replicable. The move they made to add Daniel McStay is a ‘we’re one piece away’ move. They could be forgiven for thinking that given they lost a prelim by a point, but they are not one piece away, and the McStay contract will age poorly. As either a second or third banana in a highly potent Brisbane forward line, he has never kicked more than 28 goals. He has never even generated more than 40 scoring shots. He is not the antidote to Collingwood’s forward line woes.
Carlton, as much as it pains me to say it, have no such woes. They have one of the best lists in terms of top-end talent in the AFL today and virtually all of their guns are locked up long term. Carlton were profoundly (hilariously) unlucky to miss finals last year, but I suspect that they won’t miss any more finals series over the next three years.
Verdict: Carlton.
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