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Opinion
It all happens very quickly in the footy world.
A coach takes over a big club and patience is preached, rightfully so. Expectations of immediate miracles are saved for deities, and Craig McRae.
Last year was a pass for the Blues, falling agonisingly short of a finals appearance but showing good signs throughout the season. They finished within a goal of Collingwood twice and Melbourne once. They beat Fremantle, Sydney, Richmond and the Bulldogs.
A year is about all the patience anyone really gets at a big club, if that, and coach Michael Voss led Carlton well enough to suggest they must play finals in 2023.
Tom De Koning of the Blues (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Injuries have inevitable marred the tale of Blues over the past few seasons as they do many a club, but Carlton’s story is more of a series of mistimed absences than anything else, certainly under Michael Voss.
Marc Pittonet was perhaps the biggest one out of 2022 that really proved costly, as Carlton’s most underappreciated, impactful player. Yet even in the three games he returned for at the end of the season, with finals on the line, he looked underdone.
This is a player who, in his first four games of last season, operated at a hitout-to-advantage rate of 44.7 percent, clearly the best in the league at that time, and won 10 centre clearances on his own. It led to four Carlton wins.
Tom De Koning is more of a theoretical player than a strong net positive right now and it showed in his lack of consistency and assertion.
Mitch McGovern was the other long-term absence that was a pain. He finally got the opportunity in defence under Voss and fit the defensive scheme the new coach wants to run with. No access to him or Caleb Marchbank as his deputy forced a shuffle.
Yet those aside, it seemed to be a rotation of players missing at inopportune times that just became baggage on the shoulders of fans and stretched the leniency afforded to Voss further than we may have seen in years gone by.
Matt Kennedy and George Hewett ended up missing the last few games and it coincided with Patrick Cripps putting on his Superman cape and playing through pain in extraordinary fashion.
Adam Cerra, Jacob Weitering and Harry McKay all missed a few games in different spurts, as did Lewis Young and De Koning himself.
The Blues had 18 players play at least 17 games which is great for the core of the team, but only Zac Fisher, Charlie Curnow and astonishingly Sam Docherty, played all 22.
It’s easier to cover long-term absences with planning and training. There are only so many band-aids that come in the little box before you realise there’s an element of luck to all of this.
Sure, some of it has carried over into 2022. Sam Walsh won’t quite miss as much time as initially thought after back surgery which is a great result. Zac Williams’ knee injury is the big one, although there’s plenty of coverage across the back flank.
There’s also the oft-injured but talented David Cuningham who’ll miss some time and would be a wonderful addition to the team with his blistering pace. Whatever “fighting” was involved in this injury, it’s another one on the unlucky list.
That’s about it though for the Michael Voss. He knows Williams won’t be there, there are a couple of short-term niggles, but it’s nothing new for the second-year Blues coach.
Again, this is a team that fell a point short of making finals and was competitive in every single game they played.
Voss arrived with the Blues being the lowest-possession team playing a one-on-one style of defence and turned them into a team that valued having the ball, ranked second for disposals in 2022 and playing a much friendlier scheme out back.
It certainly relieved Jacob Weitering of some pressure. It wasn’t his best season overall but he defended less than half the one-on-ones he needed to previously and was able to distribute to more line-breaking teammates who influenced Carlton’s transition play far better than the 25-year-old had himself. Lewis Young was a wonderful recruit to help.
(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The midfield is just so strong and wins the clearances regularly, while the hard running of Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra just outside the contest provided variation and spread.
In attack, there are two Coleman Medalists, one of whom may be the most dynamic forward in the league who is finally realising his potential with some injury luck.
If there was a particular issue that stood out for the Blues, it was the lack of genuine wingmen who could stretch the ground and have the work rate to push into both arcs and affect the play.
The speed and sheer hunger of Matt Cottrell, while well intentioned, puts a cap on his upside. Lochie O’Brien establishing himself in the team has been a positive development but again, his role is rather advanced.
Therefore, heading into 2023 and with Blake Acres, a wingman who has played career-best footy in recent times as a two-way runner who can take intercept marks in defence, tackle through the midfield and send the ball inside 50, immediately transforms what this Carlton team’s ball movement plays like.
Drafting Oliver Hollands with the same ethos will see him get plenty of games this season, while Lachie Cowan off half back has the excellent kicking and attack on the ball that will help cover the Blues.
To cap it all off, the Blues finished last year with the winners of the Brownlow Medal and Coleman Medal. You just don’t lose with that sort of talent in the long term as a competent coach.
And that, ultimately, is the challenge for both Michael Voss and the Blues.
On an individual level, the pressure is on Voss to show he’s up to the level.
He was in charge of the Lions for almost five seasons and his only finals win was against the team he currently coaches.
As an assistant at Port Adelaide, he saw mixed success in a couple of different roles, but the Power were never a true contender.
Michael Voss during his playing career. (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
A legendary figure in the sport he was given a season where the pressure was off. Carlton too, was able to get by without a blowtorch applied.
They start the season with Richmond and Geelong. No one will criticise a 0-2 start if competitive footy is shown.
Then, Walsh returns and the Blues face GWS, North Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda and West Coast. After seven rounds, they must be sitting in the top four.
Quite clearly, the season-defining stretch for Carlton are the following five rounds – they face Brisbane, the Bulldogs, Collingwood, Sydney and Melbourne. The Swans game is the only time they leave the state.
From that point on, the only finalists they play are Fremantle, Collingwood and Melbourne.
Last year’s heartbreak afforded the Blues a manageable fixture with a nice run home that can give this team plenty of confidence.
We’re going to find out pretty quickly if Carlton is a team that can win their first final since 2013, or even challenge for a top four spot for the first time since the turn of the century.
More importantly, there’s an expectation that the Blues will be there in September and it’s time to meet it.
Unlike last season, if the Blues don’t play finals, it’ll be a failure that will only further magnify the issues that the club has had for the last couple of decades.
The list is good, the depth is there and the tactics suit. They’ve recruited well and all the pieces fit.
Michael Voss and the Blues are under pressure in 2023, let’s see if they can handle it.