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Back in 2020 I wrote this Roar article questioning the value of the advantage law – in short, positing that playing advantage from penalties outside the 22 actually benefits the defending side.
On Saturday, the Crusaders won two penalties about 40 metres out in the first half, advantage was played, and the Crusaders advanced the ball down into the red zone only to make an error and concede possession once the advantage over call had been made.
Given that approximately 40 percent of tries are sourced from the lineout and less than 10 percent are from phase play from distance, why would the attacking side not want a penalty to be immediately called so they can kick for touch and attack from 5-10m out?
This becomes even more relevant in a game with 24 scrums due to handling errors from pretty tough conditions.
To put an even finer point of it, all four of the Crusaders tries on the night came from penalties to a lineout.
The Crusaders had two solutions open to them and took neither. Firstly, captain Scott Barrett could have said to the referee, ‘we don’t want advantage played, just award the penalty when it occurs’ or secondly, and this is a little unedifying for the game, simply dump the ball on the ground, advantage over and the penalty would be immediately awarded so they could kick for the line.
I noted the Hurricanes befell the same fate once in the opening half of their match against the Blues. In games as tight as this one better decisions need to be made.
By my maths, the chances of drawing the Blues, Crusaders and the Chiefs consecutively is something like 780 to 1. (open to correction here) Not only 3 of the best of the 4 sides in the comp but amongst the most physical so while coach Clarke Dermody has kept his All Blacks out of the firing line, the injury count of the remainder of the side has put the team in a situation where their competition could be over before it has really begun. Does seem a little odd doesn’t it?
Turnover is all the Highlanders needed to focus on this week, and yet the very opening touch of the game was a kick off out on the full.
And while they showed a greater defensive focus than in the first two games and did a job keeping the Chiefs to only 8 points at half time, the energy burned is always going to catch up with you. Worth noting that the Highlanders have had the best lineout in the comp over the last three years and for some reason it has fallen off a cliff. With reference back to ‘where do tries come from?’, this is a real issue.
On the opposite of the park I am liking the coaching of Chiefs head coach Clayton McMillan – the man does not shirk a decision. For the second time in three weeks he changed their attacking focus early in the second half to immediate benefit, although this week aided by an interesting yellow card decision from referee Paul Williams. Williams seemed to realise the folly of his earlier decision by sitting the again excellent Sam Cane down for 10 minutes shortly after in what can only have been a balancing act.
The All Black selectors have a selection dilemma at fullback now that Jordie Barrett is setting the world alight at 12. Shaun Stevenson has everything you need in a fullback, he’s a big guy, a howitzer of a boot as his 15-22 showed last week, but most importantly he has all the natural instincts of a 15. Add that the returning Will Jordan will don the custodian cloak on his return and the case is really going to be pushed that a specialist fullback is a better option than a part time one.
Note to self, get on a plane and watch the Drua play at home as soon as possible. Not only for the atmosphere but genuinely for the type of rugby they produce in front of their fans.
We all default to Fijian flair, but this win was built on straight out guts. 24 scrums they faced, and after a seriously wobbly start made a real fist of it, but the differentiator was the way they attacked the breakdown. A little naughty at times perhaps, with the first man driving into the space past the ball and his supports flying into the resultant chaos, but the Crusaders simply could not find an effective response to the ball on the ground and to the hometown energetic swarm.
For the Crusaders, and this will be a topic I take up in more detail later this year, they rested an awful lot of All Blacks, mistakenly thinking they could still get the job done. The playing field at comp level and international level is flattening and the same weakened selection policy could be argued as being the downfall of both Dave Rennie and Wayne Pivac last year.
The Drua have a swathe of home games this season and visitors are going to have to seriously consider the strength of line-up they send out, but the message is loud and clear if it wasn’t before.
Fijian Drua celebrate after a try during the round three Super Rugby Pacific match between Fiji Drua and Crusaders at Churchill Park, on March 11, 2023, in Lautoka, Fiji. (Photo by Pita Simpson/Getty Images)
A final observation, and I do not mean to be churlish here but I have not seen this mentioned anywhere else.
Referee Brendan Pickerill blew the whistle for that final penalty with the clock reading 80.54 and the kick was taken at 82.08, oops.
With Ardie Savea up in the stand for last week’s indiscretion, this was always going to be tough for the home side but with a clearer heads and execution in the championship minutes they really should have one this one.
This match was kind of messy but the making from positive intent. Both sides looked to attack quickly and were met with some fierce defence both head on and scramble.
The Blues scored two nice tries in the opening stanza with Stephen Perofeta picking up a couple of try assists slotting into the playmaker role and the Hurricanes replied with two of their own, the first of which on the back of four poor attempts at clearing their own lines from the Blues.
While the Hurricanes did all they could to finish over the top of the Blues there was really tenacious defence from the visitors to keep them out. A key role played here by someone you see mentioned in the kiwi rugby media, Adrian Choat.
The absolute highlight of the match was tighthead prop Tyrel Lomax stepping Roger Tuivasa-Scheck for his try. Someone is going to cop it big time at the video review.
Coach Darren Coleman is using his number 8 wider for the Waratahs and we all saw how uncomfortable Charlie Gamble found playing there in week 1, and so for the last two weeks Langi Gleeson has been installed in the role to much greater effect.
But the tactical question is, is there a net benefit to playing this way?
All Blacks coach Ian Foster has just spent two years proving this tactic does not work at international level and I would be surprised if this is the way Eddie Jones goes with the Wallabies given his long-standing reluctance to play English Premiership number 8s of similar style.
Defending in the middle of the park is a whole lot more difficult than in the narrow channels. This example leading to the Rebels opening try is a classic example of defending on your own and not being aware of what is happening around you.
But the biggest issue for mine is that it deconstructs the loose forward trio. Four times on Saturday, Gleeson conceded penalties on the floor without any support near him. Once for rolling forward and three times for not releasing, while Lachie Swinton struggled to get into game making only three tackles before departing and Michael Hooper would have been in the ice bath for hours such was the workload he had to take on because of this dislocation.
In short this is a tactic that will work against the weaker sides in the comp and look good on the highlights reel, but as we saw on Saturday, once you choose to concede the battle of the loose forwards, it takes a huge effort from the tight five to make up for it. The Waratahs’ tight five is not good enough to cover this, and the Rebels took every advantage afforded them, as the sides offload stats of 19 for the match attests.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.