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Rugby negotiations involving Hamish McLennan, NZRU and the British & Irish Lions are entirely unpredictable, but there is a growing expectation that an ANZAC team will front the Lions in 2025. Who might be in that team? What says our rugby crystal ball?
The Lions may well be coached by Andy Farrell, he and his mates who were discarded by England in 2015 only to build the best Irish team in history. If so, an ANZAC team might not be as dominated by All Blacks as it might be if the Lions were Warren Gatland-coached.
Ireland’s way of playing is best combatted the way Dave Rennie (and Jacques Nienaber) devised: take one entire half of the pitch away, win source collisions, muck the ruck, and use weight more than speed to gain an edge.
That being said, New Zealand still has the better group of players than Australia, on balance. With age and wear and tear firmly in mind, here is a potential ANZAC team to beat the Lions in two years time.
Loosehead prop
Ethan de Groot was part of the tight forward renaissance for New Zealand in 2022. He will be in his prime in 2025. He’s a clever, powerful scrumming prop, but also gets around the park. His backup could be young Wallaby Angus Bell, who is as like for like as it gets in this squad. Up against the Northern tightheads, there is nowhere to hide at set piece, restart, clean, maul, pod play and try line power contests. The de Groot-Bell combination would not be easily dominated.
Hooker
This is the golden age of hookers, and the Lions will bring the likes of Dan Sheehan, a Malcolm Marx with wheels, on tour. Hence, pick the hooker who best played Marx: Samisoni Frank Simpson Taukei’aho. He’s 1.8 metres high and a metre wide and cannot be budged. At age 27 come the tour, he will be perfect. Off the bench, 33-year old Codie Taylor may have lost a step, but he had a step to lose and can be counted on for the vital red zone throw and is similar in height to the burlier Taukei’aho.
Tighthead prop
The Brumbies’ leader Allan Alaalatoa is not yet 30. He will therefore be just right for the tour. He will likely have about 80 Wallaby caps. He has the spirit of combat (see Sydney and Eben Etzebeth) for this type of ferocious battle. His understudy should be Canberra-born Tyrel Lomax (son of Canberra Raiders’ John) who is only 26 and is big enough (6 foot 4, 127 to 129 kg) to attack the Lions’ looseheads with the bind, not just survive their inquisition. Also, Lomax was one of the big reasons for the All Blacks recovering from the Irish shock.
Locks
Brodie Retallick is not too old. He will be 33 come the tour. He’s a centurion All Black. His time in Japan and on rehabilitation will probably extend his vitality. Behind a young, hungry front row, you want a Hall of Fame lock behind your tighthead, in the lineout, at the pod, and on the cleanout.
But what of his great mate, Sam Whitelock? Sadly, 2025 is a year too far for the grand master of late lineout steals as a starter. Could he be a late match sub? For mine, that slot belongs instead to smooth Tupou Vaa’i, because of his carrying and tackling, as well as aerial athleticism.
The other starting lock could be Nick Frost, who will be 25 in 2025 and probably stronger inside his 120 kg frame. He still plays a bit like the lithe basketball player and whiplike discus thrower he was as a Sydney schoolboy. If he can borrow his teammate Darcy Swain’s belligerence but keep it smart as he is now, he could be the best Wallaby lock in some time.
Blindside flank
This is the most difficult position to choose, because neither team has a clear answer and both have multiple bouncer types to consider. The big Tongan-Kiwi Shannon Frizell has the physical attributes, as do Wallaby athletes Rob Valetini and Pete Samu. Youngish Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papalii can play across the back row. Scott Barrett: no, thanks. Push comes to shove, I would take the size and agility of Frizell who can also double as a lock, but this place would come down to recent form. I would have Valetini on the bench, as the most similar to Frizell.
Openside flank
This comes down to a straight contest between Papalii and his hero, Michael Hooper. Both are tackling maniacs who compete all game on every single facet. Hooper is the better player, now. More polished and educated in shortcuts. But Papalii is much bigger (6 foot 4) and will get better. Ultimately, this may come down to age: in 2025, the Blues man will be 27. The Waratah star will be 33 and he has already signaled his end is nigh.
No. 8
Ardie Savea is not even 30 yet. He should have been in the short list for World Player of the Year ever since 2019. Even if he not the quintessential body shape for an eighthman, the presence of Valetini, Frizell and Papalii in the team give him the perfect protection to go full Ardie. This loose trio would be more athletic and powerful than the Lions’ but would have their hands full on work rate.
Scrumhalf
Aaron Smith is the best nine in Australasia, but he is 34 now. There is no more demanding position on the spine, hip and legs than that of the halfback. Nic White is 32. Both Smith and White are in top shape and stay that way. In Australia, Ryan Lonergan appeals as the most Test-proper No. 9 ahead of fiery-brained Tate McDermott and too-cool Jake Gordon. In New Zealand, Brad Weber has looked best, but is only two years Smith’s junior. Finlay Christie, the Blues gymnast, is going well, too, and is 27. All in all, I would stick with a Smith-White combo unless something changed. Is that cowardice? Maybe, but a Lions series typically comes down to who makes the last mistake.
Flyhalf
The only challenge to Richie Mo’unga (28) would be Quade Santini Cooper (34) because neither nation has a well-developed playmaker in the wings. Noah Lolesio has never appeared a better flyhalf than Tane Edmed or Carter Gordon to me, but he has taken the reps (to no great effect). The North will always bring three good tens on tour. For mine, it’s Mo’unga backed up by Beauden Barrett, because Barrett is a lion-tamer who will never fear any contest and his brother (see below) can take the big kicks.
Inside centre
Fijian-Queenslander baller Samu Kerevi is that guy. The guy who changes things. He is too big, too strong, and too tough to leave out. He can negate many game plans and form the basis of others. The All Blacks have Jordie Barrett and Roger Tuivasa-Scheck but neither beats Kerevi on the run.
Samu Kerevi of the Wallabies is tackled during game three of the International Test match series between the Australia Wallabies and England at the Sydney Cricket Ground on July 16, 2022 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Outside centre
This is the blindside of the backline: no obvious frontrunner. Len Ikitau combines well with Kerevi, but not as well, perhaps, as Anton Lienert-Brown does with his wings. Rieko Ioane is more valuable in a Lions series on the wing, stopping or rounding the Afrikaner Android or some other Northern giant. So, we will take a flier on ALB staying healthy; when he is, he is a brilliant No. 13.
Wings
Marika Koroibete and Rieko Ioane would scare any team: power, pace, confidence, and a will to change a game. There are other wings to consider (New Zealand has almost ten we could name here) but the goal here from 12-15 is to be stronger, and meaner (and as big if not bigger) than the Lions, whilst covering to the corner flag and handling a dozen aerials a game, each. Will Jordan is unlucky but comes into the player 23 debate.
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Fullback
I would start Jordie Barrett to have his 60 metre goalkicking, cover defence, and counterattack.
Utility back reserve
For me it is the super athletes named Jordan: Petaia or Will. Will is the better footballer. Petaia has the most upside. But until that side has been seen for a while, I will go with Will.
ANZAC Team (1-23):
1. Ethan de Groot (NZ)
2. Samisoni Taukei’aho (NZ)
3. Allan Alaalatoa (Aus)
4. Brodie Retallick (NZ)
5. Nick Frost (Aus)
6. Shannon Frizell (NZ)
7. Dalton Papalii (NZ)
8. Ardie Savea (NZ)
9. Aaron Smith (NZ)
10. Richie Mo’unga (NZ)
11. Marika Koroibete (Aus)
12. Samu Kerevi (Aus)
13. Anton Lienert-Brown (NZ)
14. Rieko Ioane (NZ)
15. Jordie Barrett (NZ)
16. Codie Taylor (NZ)
17. Angus Bell (Aus)
18. Tyrell Lomax (NZ)
19. Tupou Vaa’i (NZ)
20. Rob Valetini (Aus)
21. Nic White (Aus)
22. Beauden Barrett (NZ)
23. Will Jordan (NZ)
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.