As the boxing promoters love to say, someone’s got to go on Friday night at Suncorp.
In the red corner, it’s the Dolphins, with the wily old trainer whispering in the ear, boasting a cast of journeymen, pretenders and future contenders, looking to win over the tough hometown crowd. For a side that geographically isn’t from anywhere, they certainly seem to have designs on Brisbane.
In the blue – alright, maroon – corner, it’s the pretty boys, the fighting pride of all Brisbane town, the reigning, defending, undisputed champions of the hearts of the River City. They’ll want to send the upstarts back to Redcliffe with their fins between their legs.
Alright, Michael Buffer probably isn’t going to hand up his mic at that introduction, but hey – he can have Las Vegas. Brisvegas is ours.
Friday night’s blockbuster between the Broncos and Dolphins couldn’t be more hyped if they flew in Buffer himself to read the subs, so it’s worth going deep into where the game will be won and lost on the field.
If you listen to the Fifth and Last podcast – and you really should – you’ll have heard host and NSW Cup coach Brock Shepperd describe the Dolphins as playing “perfect March footy”.
He’s absolutely right: at this time of year, the major edge that a team can get is playing clean when others don’t, ensuring that you don’t beat yourself in the hope that your opponent does.
When you know that your opponents will lack cohesion – and that you yourself will too – then the sensible plan is to be as compact, conservative and mistake-free as possible. Throw in that you’re an entirely new team with no pre-existing combinations and that it even more vital.
One could add, too, that the conditions have had a serious impact in all three Dolphins games: two heatwaves in Rounds 1 and 3 with a swimming pool in the middle against the Raiders. These were games where playing conservatively was always going to be the most sensible plan.
Duly, the Dolphins have dominated the ball in their three games, topping the NRL for possession and total sets, while showing expectation conversion rates on the chances that they do get.
From 12 line breaks they have scored 15 tries – obviously, not all tries require a line break, but it shows just how well they are converting their opportunities into points.
Defensively, they’re winning the ruck more often than not, with a higher proportion of 3-man tackles than their opponents, ensuring their line is set. It doesn’t matter that their own offence has been slow, because their opponents have been slower.
Indeed across all underlying metrics, Bennett’s boys are a model of how to stay in a fight: win the possession, slow the other team down, take what chances you get.
Across a sample size of three, in bad conditions, it’s worked a charm. Their wins, so far at least, are sustainable.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow celebrates scoring with a phins up Dolphins salute. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
There’s two major factors that play in to the Dolphins’ ability to make it four from four. The most obvious is that they now face their toughest opponent yet, with Brisbane also unbeaten at the top of the table.
The Broncos’ win in Penrith was a bit of a lucky one – they lost all the underlying metrics badly and the data gave them a 22% chance of winning that match. 22% isn’t nothing, and they took every chance they got then used the game state to hang on for dear life.
But there’s no taking away how well they played the circumstances as they came to them. Adam Reynolds is one of the best game managers out there and showed every inch of it that night.
The Broncos have actually played in a very similar way to the Dolphins so far, just with better individuals.
Brisbane are also playing excellent March footy and doing all the free stuff well: running push supports, taking hard carries and holding onto the ball.
Payne Haas, Pat Carrigan and Herbie Farnworth are all in the top 15 for metres so far and they have four – Tom Flegler added – in the top ten for post-contact metres. That’s also empowered Cory Paix and Billy Walters to take a lot of metres out of dummy half.
Selwyn Cobbo. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
The whole team is among the lowest for passes per run, which given that they’ve dominated possession, will go a long way to telling you how they’ve gone about the early rounds. They’re bashing the front door in.
The question, then, will lie in the Dolphins ability to stop them. This is two safety-first sides who will likely play up-the-guts footy, and that might play into Bennett’s hands.
If this is a real derby, then the emotion and ego involved in taking those carries might get to the Broncos’ forwards, allowing the Dolphins to get three men into the tackle and slow their opponents down. They won’t mind if they lose an extra five metres but gain another second or two on the ruck.
We’ve seen a lot of Felise Kaufusi putting the hurt on in the first three weeks, but that’s probably not how the bulk of tackling should go. They should tackle like the proverbial wet sponge, using the Broncos’ willingness to take one-man in runs to defend in numbers.
The average game has around 80 sets, but if the Dolphins can keep the Broncos down to less than that through slow play, then they’re onto a winner. The Roosters and Knights got 35 and 37 respectively.
They can also play very narrowly, too. The Broncos have shown little willingness to spread the play early and attack from deep, and if Bennett was to station his wingers five yards further in than they would regularly stand, inducing Brisbane to go wide.
13 men in line can only cover so much space, but making that space on their outside will induce riskier passing and more potential for errors. It would also help them to get more men into the tackle, slow it down and halt the potential for dummy half runs.
Broncos coach Kevin Walters. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
When the Dolphins get the ball, they can do what they’ve been doing thus far and draw the contact themselves.
There’s an element of negative possession about this: you hold the ball so your opponents have to do the shuttle running of defence, while only one player at a time is doing any running at all from your side.
Sean O’Sullivan in the halves can take control of this too. Brisbane, when they play well, are an exceptional transitional team who derive close to 40% of their metres from their back 5, so don’t give them the chance to do it.
Kick it off the island and force the Broncos to truck the ball in from dead starts in their own third. Reynolds will kick long and probably find the floor, but it’s unlikely he’ll respond to negativity with more negativity.
If a Dolphins set begins on their 20m line and ends with a kick that goes out on the Broncos’ 20m line, it’s a win for Wayne Bennett.
Once the game is close, the ability of luck, talent and good game management to kick in increases. Compete and complete has taken the Dolphins to 3-0, and it can take them to 4-0 too.
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