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There’s a strong chance that the competition table will split in two this round with the top six teams separating from the rest.
That’s nothing that a three-game winning streak won’t flip from a less fancied club but do you see that in the Fijian Drua, Melbourne Rebels, Western Force, NSW Waratahs, Highlanders or Moana Pasifika?
The answer is a big fat “no” on present form.
The intriguing spin-off may be that we have five or six teams jostling hard for positions No.7 and No.8 into the finals series which will be just as fascinating as the fight for the top four and the home ground advantage that comes with it.
Plenty can change in a competition like Super Rugby Pacific, especially with clubs mandated to rest Test players in World Cup year.
That’s where we’ll start this week’s talking points.
THE REST IS UP TO YOU
The title to Relient K’s old rock song sadly doesn’t apply -The Rest Is Up To You …not.
Top Wallabies must be rested from one or two games to satisfy workload balance in World Cup year.
That has essentially turned Friday night’s ACT Brumbies-Crusaders clash in Christchurch into a fizzer.
The Brumbies will bristle at that branding but “resting five fit Wallabies from the starting side” is under any definition of the term.
It’s not the fault of the Brumbies. Resting Nic White, Rob Valetini, Tom Wright, Pete Samu and James Slipper has to happen sometime so why not in a city where the Brumbies haven’t won since 2000.
(Quick quiz detour: Who scored the Brumbies’ two tries in that 17-12 win in 2000?)
The Brumbies have been the standout Aussie side by the length of Manuka Oval this season with their 4-0 start.
Great habits have been bred deep through the ranks so watching emerging backrowers Luke Reimer and Rory Scott in Christchurch will be interesting.
Young Rebels flyhalf Carter Gordon stood tall in hostile Hamilton in a losing side last weekend.
Noah Lolesio can earn a big tick if he can do the same in Christchurch.
(Quiz answer: Andrew Walker and Mitch Hardy).
HOOPER vs CANE
Flankers Michael Hooper (Waratahs) and Sam Cane (Chiefs) have played more than 200 Tests between them on top of a combined tally of 300-plus Super Rugby games.
That’s a huge nod to their incredible resilience in the firing line when over the ball because opponents have taken aim at them for cleanouts for more than a decade.
It takes a fearless attitude as well as deep reserves of physical staying power to step up each time.
The warriors duel at Allianz Stadium on Friday night.
(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
If the Waratahs are to put a plug in the Chiefs’ rapid-fire attack, it won’t just take relentless defence, it will require flanker Hooper to do a bit more ball stealing and penalty-forcing work at the tackle area.
He does so much well but the value of just one or two forced penalties to switch momentum is what the Waratahs will certainly need.
As a contrast to the Brumbies, the Chiefs are heading to Sydney with big guns Cane, Brodie Retallick, Damian McKenzie and Brad Weber.
REBELS RISING?
The Rebels are hungry, almost impatient, to climb up the ladder.
You do so by occasionally upsetting a Kiwi opponent but the bedrock is always proving yourself top dog against the other Australian sides.
The Queensland Reds took that step a few seasons ago and have a 7-2 record against the other Australian sides across 2022-23 when only the Brumbies have bested them (twice).
The Rebels are a tame 2-6 in local derbies for the same period.
The 34-27 upset of the Waratahs earlier this month was a big step in the right direction but the Reds on Saturday night in Melbourne will be harder again.
The backrow will be a huge battlefield. Brad Wilkin and Richard Hardwick are almost without peer as a jackalling double-act for the Rebels so the bsecne of Hardwick is a blow.
Reds duo Fraser McReight and Liam Wright are adept in that area too.
A Brisbane ABC radio commentator inadvertently stumbled into a ripper of a tag for the Reds backrow.
We’ve all heard the “Pooper” tag to recognise David Pocock and Michael Hooper as a power couple on the field together.
Well, our commentator miscued with “Harry Wreight” or at least that’s how we will spell it as an easy handle for Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight and Liam Wright as a triple treat.
DON’T IGNORE BRISBANE
The jousting to host a coveted Test and the proposed ANZAC XV tour game during the British and Irish Lions tour in 2025 is on in earnest.
We can probably all see the merit to Sydney and Melbourne being locked in for two of the three Tests because of the size of the venues available. The 60,000-seat Optus Stadium in Perth is in the hunt too.
The debate about Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium hosting a Test ranges from reasonable to absurd to dangerous “shrinking thinking”.
We all understand Rugby Australia canvassing the country to find out what each of the State Governments and tourism authorities are prepared to pay to host a Test.
Sure, Adelaide has a great venue but to even be in the same conversation as Brisbane is crazy.
Stage a Lions Test in Adelaide and you might gain a small cluster of curious new kids to the game. Don’t play a Lions Test in Brisbane and you risk losing the inspiration for a whole generation already playing the game in one of rugby’s true heartlands.
Brisbane doesn’t host a Test this year because of the truncated home season for the Wallabies. If that is exacerbated by no Lions Test in 2025, it’s a sellout by the code with no foresight at all.