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After a rough start to 2023 on the tipping front, could things, at last, be turning around?
Narrator: No, they wouldn’t.
Tipping this season has been tough, but I think it’s fair to say mine are particularly dire.
As it stands, I’m on 10 after three weeks – yes. Ten. An opening round 2 set the tone, and even more embarrassingly, a 3 in Round 3, in what was a far easier round to tip.
I’m five off the pace in our expert tipping competition, and I’m ranked 1586th out of 1686 in the Melbourne Cricket Club’s official tipping competition – one out of the bottom 100. And I’m actually on 11 in that comp, thanks to accidentally backing North Melbourne in Round 1.
So yes, things are grim. But hey, there’s an extra round this season to get back on track, and surely things can’t get any worse… right? Right?
Last week: 3
Collingwood, Carlton, Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong
If you’ve learned anything in this expert tipping column by now, it should be that whoever I tip in the 50/50 or even 60/40 matches, you go the other way.
Last week, I locked in Essendon and Sydney to beat St Kilda and Melbourne respectively, thinking the loss of captains Jack Steele and Max Gawn would prove too much to overcome. *incorrect buzzer bleeps*
Five behind the leaders, I’ve got two options: either go back to just picking bland favourites and gathering momentum, or go pedal to the metal and run the gauntlet with a few outsiders and try and force my way back into the competition.
I’m going the former. I’m a coward.
Kicking us off, Brisbane are a big chance of knocking over Collingwood at home under the tried and tested ‘bounce back from a week of media criticism’ rule that saw the Bulldogs knock them over in Round 3. Having said that, no team is travelling better than the Magpies at the moment, so I’ll back them in.
North Melbourne and Carlton fans have already sold out the Good Friday match, apparently, thus ending my dream of the Bulldogs ever getting back their one and only marquee fixture. No Griffin Logue or Ben McKay is just about worst case scenario for North’s defence against Charlie Curnow and Ben’s ‘brother’ Harry (they’re still get to play against one another in eight years. Suspicious), so Carlton by plenty.
Here’s the thing: what has bitten me this year consistently is picking away teams, particularly sides travelling interstate. Thus far this year, home teams are 12-4 against opponents travelling across borders – so I’m following that trend and picking all home teams across Saturday.
That means Adelaide to continue Fremantle’s disappointing season, St Kilda to take care of Gold Coast, and Sydney to be too strong at the SCG for Port Adelaide.
Sandwiched in the middle, the Bulldogs don’t have to travel as far to face Richmond at the MCG, but I’m betraying my team once again and backing in the Tigers – at least this way, I’ll either see my team win or get a tip right.
On Sunday, the same logic applies to Essendon holding off GWS – though I’m deeply nervous about the Bombers’ ability to control a high-quality Giants midfield if they get things going their way. But not even home ground advantage could convince me to back an injury-depleted West Coast to beat Melbourne – surely not a serious tipper anywhere gives the Eagles a prayer here.
Finishing off with Easter Monday, you’ve simply got to pick Geelong to knock over Hawthorn – though the fact you even have to think twice about tipping the reigning premier to beat the pre-season wooden spoon favourite tells you a lot about how the Cats are going right now.
(Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 5
Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong
Alright, we’ve found a bit of consistency so far in tipping.
The league is still as unpredictable as ever, but guaranteeing an Adelaide win in the Showdown has me irrationally confident about being decisive.
For no reason at all, Brisbane’s yo-yoing form will continue with a win against the best team in the competition, Collingwood.
The Good Friday clash being just about sold out will make it a good spectacle, and hopefully we see the return of Luke Davies-Uniacke to make it a little more competitive. Still, the Blues are ticking along and should be too good for North Melbourne.
Fremantle has won four of its last five against the Crows, including the last two at Adelaide Oval. This will be a hard-fought contest, but I suspect we’ll finally see a big showing from Andy Brayshaw to drag his team over the line.
Richmond should beat the Bulldogs, which only leaves room for heartbreak. An MCG twilight fixture is strange – not sure what the AFL is thinking there. Optically, it’s going to be a weird one.
The Suns have lost their last seven against the Saints, which includes five games decided by less than 10 points. They’ve also got a poor record at Marvel Stadium. Everything just has to point to St Kilda, even if I still back Gold Coast to play finals.
The Port Adelaide Pretenders are back in full force. Don’t be fooled by the fact they’ve won their last six against the Swans – they only play them once a year, and the last four have been played in Adelaide. Back the Swans to make a statement after last week.
What are we expecting to be a good crowd on Easter Sunday for a clash between the Bombers and GWS? This should be a fast-paced game that’ll probably be underappreciated as a spectacle. Essendon should do the job at home.
I haven’t run it past anyone yet, but the best tipster of this week will get a game for West Coast next week, so get them in early.
In fact, I’ve heard they’re resorting to putting up flyers at the local supermarkets to try and find 23 players for the rest of the season. Melbourne by a billion.
Finally, Easter Monday, where the only winless team comes against the most dominant, weird home ground team in the league. The Cats will break their duck.
Gary Rohan of the Cats celebrates a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 4
Collingwood, Carlton, Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, GWS, Melbourne, Geelong
At least I’m not going as bad as Tim?
Another 4 for me last week, but things look a bit easier this round – they usually do once the dust settles and we work out who’s good and who sucks.
Collingwood to start the round by knocking over Brisbane – the Pies are flying at the moment and no ground and no opponent will faze them.
Carlton would beat North Melbourne even if they had Griffin Logue and Ben McKay in defence. Without them, put your house on one of Charlie Curnow or Harry McKay kicking eight – I just don’t know which one.
It’s hard to go past Adelaide at home after their Showdown win, even though Fremantle should put up a good fight. The Crows just have too many scoring options, but Freo have a great recent record in Adelaide. This one will be tight.
Richmond to beat the Bulldogs – for the third year in a row, the Dogs get the Tigers after a week of questioning whether they’re cooked at last. In 2021 and 2022, they responded with stirring wins, and with Dustin Martin and Jacob Hopper back, it’s hard to tip against them.
With or without Mason Wood, St Kilda should be too good for Gold Coast at home. They’re flying, and the Suns, while they did beat Geelong last week, didn’t exactly do it in the greatest of style. Ditto Sydney, who despite failing their first major test of the year against Melbourne, are going to be too powerful for Port.
Interestingly, Round 20, 2016 was the last time the Swans beat the Power, though they haven’t played at the SCG since 2018. It shouldn’t matter.
My upset of the week is GWS to be too strong for Essendon – I reckon the Bombers’ slide back into mediocrity starts now. The Giants have an in-form midfield, marking options in attack to trouble a height-starved Dons, and Sam Taylor to shut Sam Weideman out of the game. I can’t see Toby Greene putting two stinkers in in a row, either.
You could give West Coast a 50-point head start and I’d still tip Melbourne to beat them. With all the injuries, I’m just fascinated to see who they pick.
Rounding us off, everyone sensible will pick Geelong to knock over Hawthorn while hoping with all their might to be wrong. Come on, Hawks – do it for the content.
Charlie Dixon (Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
Last week: 5
Collingwood, Carlton, Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong
Another week, another mediocre tipping performance.
Such is life when you’re tipping this wildly unpredictable sport of ours, and I’ve got to do it all over again now.
Kicking us off this week is tonight’s clash up in the Sunshine State. Brisbane, who have fluctuated somewhere between world beaters and thoroughly disappointing this year, are going to be better just by being at a (hopefully electrically-connected) Gabba.
But home ground advantage is one thing, and the fact they’re up against a strong Magpies outfit is another. The key issue is Collingwood’s lack of any recognised ruckman tonight. Brisbane will be keen to exploit it, though I think the Pies get it done either way.
Good Friday, as per usual, features the Kangaroos – but with a new opponent this time, Carlton. The Blues earned their second win of the season against the Giants last weekend, while the previously undefeated (yep, really) North fell to the Hawks. The Kangas are likely to gain some midfield firepower back, but the Blues are stronger around the ground and should earn this win easily.
Freo begin their week in Adelaide with an enticing clash against the Crows, who were superb in last week’s Showdown victory. The Dockers looked much, much better in their Derby win, though I still have concerns about my own team. At home, Adelaide are deserving favourites, and despite the fact Freo are ostensibly the better side, this is the Crows’ to lose.
In Saturday’s twilight clash, the Bulldogs will be buoyed after an impressive win last week, but one win does not make the season, and the Tigers should be about to best them here (sorry, Tim).
St Kilda hosting the Suns, just quietly, could be a cracker of a match. The Saints’ resurgence under Ross Lyon has been sensational – in quintessential Lyon fashion, they’ve conceded the fewest points this season – but there’s little to be gained in underestimating the Suns, who are coming off a very strong win over the premiers.
I’m going the Saints, but wouldn’t be surprised by an upset. That said, a game I would be a surprised by an upset in is Sydney’s clash with Port: the Swans at home, coming off a loss, bares bad news for the terrible Port outfit.
Sunday’s matches are relatively simple: Melbourne are overwhelmingly likely to beat the wounded Eagles, while I’m going to feign confidence and suggest Essendon at home should do enough to hold off the Giants.
The round’s final game, to use a word from the AFL’s fantastic subreddit, is a SPOONBOWL! (Second last and last place against each other, for the un-initiated.)
Geelong are desperate for a win, and despite part of me hoping the Hawks pull this out, it’s easily going to be the Cats’ game to lose.
Josh Rachele of the Crows celebrates his first goal in the AFL. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
| Round 4 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BL vs COL | COL | BL | COL | COL | COL |
| NM vs CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| ADE vs FRE | ADE | FRE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| RCH vs WB | RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH |
| STK vs GCS | STK | STK | STK | STK | STK |
| SYD vs PA | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| ESS vs GWS | ESS | ESS | GWS | ESS | ESS |
| WCE vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| GEE vs HAW | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| LAST WEEK | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 10 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
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