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If you’re a Carlton supporter, you can look at Good Friday’s win over North Melbourne as either glass half full or glass half empty.
The good news is, the Blues’ best remains awe-inspiring. A six-goal third quarter saw them break the match open within 10 scintillating minutes; dominating the Kangaroos at the source, running forward in waves, pressuring like men possessed inside their forward 50, and getting plenty of supply to a Charlie Curnow-Harry McKay partnership that hasn’t looked this imposing for 10 months – albeit against a key defender-less North defence.
The bad news is it took them a half and five minutes to work out this was the way to play – be aggressive, and find ways to exploit a serious height and class advantage McKay and Curnow had on whichever Roos player had the misfortune to be on them at that point. By then, the Roos had been spotted a nine-point lead and plenty of belief. It didn’t matter this time, but better, more accomplished rivals won’t let the Blues get away with it – indeed, they probably ended up lucky the Kangaroos couldn’t kick straight all evening.
Carlton are fast becoming one of the most maddening teams in the AFL to watch. Yes, they’re currently on top, undefeated and all without putting in a consistent four-quarter effort. They’ve knocked over the reigning premiers along the way, too.
But some of Michael Voss’ coaching, particularly on Friday afternoon, was nothing short of baffling. If it takes you more than an hour to realise that maybe Harry McKay versus Jack Ziebell or Charlie Curnow vs Aiden Bonar are match-ups worth playing aggressive, full-throttle footy, then something has gone wrong.
The Blues were incredibly timid with their ball use in the first half. North invite this: they’re more than happy to give the opposition as many uncontested marks as they like in defence, with Hawthorn and Fremantle racking up huge numbers in the last two weeks.
Carlton took that to the nth degree in the first term at Marvel Stadium, with a whopping 37 marks, including eight for Lewis Young and five for Jacob Weitering. You don’t need to be Einstein to work out what it means if those two are pulling those kinds of numbers.
This, combined with some painfully cautious ball movement, let the Roos set up as they pleased ahead of the play. Wind the clock back to 2008-era Hawthorn and their defensive set-up would look very similar to North’s: not a single player taking a man, instead the entire group guarding space.
It had the desired effect: when Corey Durdin marked 60 metres out with an open arc ahead of him, despite Tom De Koning unguarded in the pocket and Charlie Curnow streaming towards goal, he dithered, confused by the North zone with every kick possible to be cut off. It gave the Roos all the time in the world to flood back in numbers and neutralise the ensuing long ball.
Harry McKay’s use also made for a fascinating watch: as he usually does, the Blues spearhead roamed as far as the wings and half-back line, as a marking option for long kicks down the line. Nothing wrong with that… except for the occasion.
Given North’s weaknesses down back, this wasn’t a day for slow ball movement, long balls up the line, and the Blues backing their midfield to win in a scrap.
This was a day for aggressive, corridor ball movement, perhaps through Adam Saad’s run and carry and punishing left foot, and long balls to McKay and Curnow’s advantage ideally one out deep inside 50.
McKay had four marks for the quarter, but just one came inside 50: one that resulted in a goal, however scrappy. The same went for Curnow, unable to find his usual time and space but for one early instance.
The Blues, in the first quarter, did not go down the corridor from defensive 50 once. North, in contrast, were doing it 45 per cent of the time.
On the attack, as well, the Roos were quite happy with the Blues keeping the ball in their defensive half for much of the term. It gave them chances to press for fast breakaways in the event of a miskick, which they did with two of their three first-quarter goals coming from forward half intercepts. With four of his own, only inaccuracy prevented Cameron Zurhaar being even more dominant.
At the coalface, Luke Davies-Uniacke was as damaging as ever: with 12 disposals to quarter time, plus two clearances and five contested possessions, he was every bit the Brownlow contender he’d been in the first two rounds. You could see exactly what the Roos had been missing with him, plus the almost as ferocious Jy Simpkin, sidelined in their Round 3 loss to Hawthorn.
Bailey Scott, too, had a licence to run and be damaging off a wing, often running with near reckless abandon into attack on a wing. With four score involvements, you couldn’t say it wasn’t working.
Voss’ first move towards correcting those first-quarter woes was to shift first George Hewett and then Ed Curnow to shut Davies-Uniacke down. It worked: the Roos superstar managed just one clearance after quarter time, and 15 largely ineffectual disposals. Given his blistering first two rounds, you’d take that all day long.
However, with 60 uncontested marks by half time, the Blues had the fourth-most by any team to that point for the season – and with just two inside 50, they weren’t in dangerous spots at all. Their disposal efficiency of 74.6, therefore, was misleading: you shouldn’t be missing short targets under minimal pressure.
Harry McKay of the Blues celebrates a goal. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Perhaps the circuit-breaker came in the last minutes of the second term: the Blues finally moved it fast and direct, with a long ball sat on Charlie Curnow’s head one-out with Aidan Corr. The umpire, hot on the whistle for any contact by a defender all match, spotted a high touch, Curnow received a free directly in front, and goalled.
At times, it was that easy – Curnow had three at half time, while McKay had two. Every time the Blues were able to get the ball to them in a dangerous position, North looked toast. But with only 22 inside 50s despite all those marks, they just weren’t getting it to them enough.
So that’s what the Blues did in the third quarter. They won the contested possession count by 10 despite losing the clearances, putting ferocious pressure on the Roos’ midfield handpasses to win the ball back: then they put pedal to the metal, surged forward, and if Curnow or McKay wasn’t on the end of it, it was Jesse Motlop, or Tom De Koning, or Josh Honey.
Half of Curnow’s goals for the match, two after half time, came from free kicks: North’s defenders were so nervous whenever he or McKay were near the ball that they invariably panicked if the Blues got a fast break. And you couldn’t exactly blame them.
Notable too were who was winning the ball for the Roos suddenly: Harry Sheezel, quiet early, had seven disposals for the quarter as the ball spent far more time down his end (with 18-7 inside 50s, it was there plenty). Davies-Uniacke also had seven, but four were handballs in deep congestion, and achieved little but putting a teammate under pressure.
From nine points down, the Blues kicked six goals from 12 inside 50s, used the corridor, surged forward, and dominated. McKay had two for the term, Curnow one. It continued on in the last to set up a game-high 46-point lead, before the air went out of the match, the Blues shut up shop and North salvaged pride from the wreckage with 23 marks.
The proof of the pudding was this: the Blues scored 31 points – that’s five goals – from kick-ins in the second half. That’s the most Champion Data have ever recorded.
Had they played like this all match, they’d have won by a hundred.
The third quarter was Carlton at is best: ruthless in close, lightning fast on the turnover, aggressive with their ball movement, and two of the game’s best key forwards waiting on the end of it.
The rest of the game, particularly the first half, had just about none of that, against a side more vulnerable than any in the competition to the powers of McKay and Curnow.
Will the real Carlton please stand up?
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