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Opinion
After a historic 76th season, the NBA is about to serve a playoff entrée that is extremely difficult to predict. This year has felt as if there’s been a genuine shift in the style and identity of the league; a new era that is here to stay.
The play-ins have been a resounding success product-wise, since their introduction in 2020. During the 2020-21 season, the rules of the tournament were changed to include the 7th and 10th seed into a four-team format.
So on this third iteration of the new tournament, there are eight teams vying for the remaining playoff berths. From the West (7-10 seeds): the Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder.
From the East (7-10 seeds): the Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls. The 7th seed going into the play-in tournament is 4-0 over the last couple years, whereas the 10th seed has never made it to the second game of the play-in.
Now that we know what’s at stake, let’s see the matchups. The first day of the tournament will see the 7th and 8th meet. Lakers are at home hosting the Timberwolves; the Hawks will make a trip to Florida to face the Heat.
The second day of games rounds out the bottom of the play-in showcasing the 9th and 10th seeds. Raptors take on the Bulls, whilst the Pelicans play the Thunder.
The loser of the 7th and 8th matchup will host the winner of the 9th vs 10th game.
Potentially the most exciting play-in game of the lot, LeBron James returns to the postseason for the first time since his loss to Phoenix in June 2021. Since his return from injury, the Lakers have gone 6-2 with LeBron back in the fold.
The new squad has meshed well after the trades that saw them ascertain Jared Vanderbilt, D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley.
They just picked up Tristan Thompson for some backup 5 minutes, should they need him when running into a team such as Denver. Anthony Davis has been playing exceptionally well to close the season; when paired with Austin Reaves consistency and elevated production, this Lakers squad has formed into one that makes sense when walking into the playoffs.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis didn’t mix well with Russell Westbrook. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Conversely, the Timberwolves looked like they were just beginning to peak at the right time, but their final season game against the Pelicans saw all hell break loose. Rudy Gobert hit his teammate Kyle Anderson in a timeout and Jaden McDaniels fractured his right hand punching a wall when walking into halftime.
Gobert was sent home and it will be interesting to see how management disciplines him (Anthony Davis will be licking his lips to go to work against Karl Anthony Towns if there is no Gobert); McDaniels has grown into a star defensive wing, one who you could see bothering Lebron and Davis in a one-off game.
However, despite the extremely recent doom and gloom, Karl Anthony Towns has returned and doesn’t look like his game has accumulated too much rust.
So much can be said about Anthony Edwards play this season, that a whole separate piece will have to be written, but in summary, he is one of the elite young premier talents in the league.
Season Series: Timberwolves won the series 2-1 in the regular season.
Stats from the past month:
Lakers – 120 ORTG, 113.9 DRTG, 38% of 3P%, 35% Opponent 3P%
Timberwolves – 115.9 ORTG, 115.9 DRTG, 40% of 3P%, 37% Opponent 3P%
The other Western conference matchup will further the amount of time that Zion Williamson has not played in a postseason setting. Missing their star phenom, the Pelicans will look to Brandon Ingram’s recent stretch of excellent play and the veteran leadership of CJ McCollum to get into a second play-in game.
Their lethal wing combination of Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III should give the Thunder nightmares; Murphy especially is starting to look like a future star in this league, mark my words.
Ultimately, they’re replicating the form they discovered at the end of last year’s regular season and playoff series against the Suns.
What to do with OKC? A part of me thinks that if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can get rolling then they can very realistically win this game.
Flanked by the surgically methodical Josh Giddey and rising star Jalen Williams, this team could assuredly cause an upset or two in the play-ins. We haven’t even witnessed Chet Holmgren’s effect on the team, but that’s a story for next season.
Josh Giddey. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Whatever the outcome, any playoff-like experience for this young squad is invaluable. The Thunder are well coached, play hard (go watch the Lakers game where LeBron broke the scoring record for reference) and have a true star in Shai, an underdog recipe if there ever was one.
Season Series: Pelicans won the series 3-1 in the regular season.
Stats from the past month:
Pelicans – 118.8 ORTG, 110.4 DRTG, 42% of 3P%, 34% Opponent 3P%
OKC – 114.7 ORTG, 115 DRTG, 33% of 3P%, 36% Opponent 3P%
Heading out East, this game has the potential for massive ramifications on either side. If the Heat can’t make it out of the play-ins, then there could be a roster upheaval with rumours seeming to leak that Jimmy Butler could look for a different team in the off-season.
The Heat have had a lacklustre season to say the least, but they are an ever-present danger to any opposition because they’re coached by a true historic great in Erik Spoelstra.
Alongside a core identity that has complete disregard for the opponent’s disposition, due to them believing they’re the toughest bunch on the circuit, they are a true ordeal to overcome in a one game situation.
Nonetheless, Tyler Herro needs to show he can muster the chops for playoff basketball to support perennial defensive weapon Bam Adebayo, especially with the version of Kyle Lowry that we’ve witnessed get dragged through this regular season.
Although the pressure isn’t quite the same for Atlanta as their Eastern counterpart, their season hasn’t lived up to the hopes after acquiring Dejounte Murray in the offseason. It seems that turmoil has been sustained through all levels of the organisation this season.
Former GM Travis Schlenk and former coach Nate McMillan both ended up leaving the team due to pressure from management and players alike. However, questions remain in those departments as well, with management delivering a prime case of nepotism and Trae Young being continuously linked with queries over his character and whether he can be a “winning” player.
Trae Young. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
At the end of the day, this might not matter in a one game circumstance. New head coach Quinn Snyder has been trying to utilise Trae more off-ball and the roster itself has some good depth. These games are a testing ground for Snyder as he’s only 20 games into his tenure as Atlanta’s coach, so it’s way too early to judge this team based off the outcome of their play-in.
Season Series: Heat won the series 3-1 in the regular season.
Stats from the past month:
Heat – 119.5 ORTG, 118.8 DRTG, 37% of 3P%, 37% Opponent 3P%
Hawks – 120.3 ORTG, 118.4 DRTG, 35% of 3P%, 36% Opponent 3P%
Toronto and Chicago have a shared experience this season. Both coming in with hopes to build on last season’s successes, both failed with early results.
Both teams acquired talent at the trade deadline in hopes to remain competitive in a vaunted Eastern conference, despite calls for both teams to tear down their rosters and rebuild. For the Raptors, there was hope that Scottie Barnes would continue developing the promise he showed in his rookie year, but that staple that is the sophomore slump struck yet again.
The defence is never in question with a Nick Nurse coached Toronto team, but rather the offence has struggled this year, notably at the end of games.
Zach LaVine is one of the NBA’s biggest stars. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Albeit, the matchup with the Bulls favours the Raptors heavily. Just through sheer force of the length on that roster, players like OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and the aforementioned Barnes will make the two scorers of the Bulls, in Zach Lavine and Demar DeRozan, work for every bucket.
If you’re a Chicago fan, you’ll be hoping for a recreation of the Patrick Beverly celebratory tears from his exploits in last year’s play-ins with Minnesota.
The team’s defence has become extremely tenacious to close the season, and the Bulls still possess scoring talent all over the court and on the bench. This matchup really could go either way and should be the most even contest on the play-in slate.
Season Series: Raptors won the series 2-1 in the regular season.
Stats from the past month:
Raptors – 119.2 ORTG, 113.8 DRTG, 33% of 3P%, 36% Opponent 3P%
Bulls – 115.4 ORTG, 112.9 DRTG, 37% of 3P%, 38% Opponent 3P%
If I had to pick two teams to get through the play-ins, I’d be looking at the Lakers and Heat to take the 7th seeds.
The 8th seed is a much harder proposition but Atlanta’s talent should help see them through; I like taking OKC as a dark horse to upset the Pelicans and Timberwolves but that pick is based on the Wolves missing McDaniels and who knows of the repercussions with Gobert’s actions.
Playoff basketball is about to begin, and I can say without a doubt that one of the most exciting periods of sport over a two-month stretch is going to grace our televisions, social media accounts and minds.
This season has been truly phenomenal through its’ parity, and let’s all hope that the playoffs follow suit.
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