Opinion
Milwaukee enter the playoffs as favourites but there are genuinely six or seven teams with legitimate chances in one of the most wide open post-seasons for many years.
Boston and Philadelphia are also well and truly in the title hunt in the Eastern Conference while the West is officially drunk with Denver, Memphis, Phoenix, Golden State and if you squint, either LA side, considered realistic hopes of getting their hands on the trophy.
The Warriors’ title defence has been helter-skelter most of the season but with Andrew Wiggins rejoining their big four of Steph Curry, Klay Thomson and Jordan Poole, they can’t be ruled out despite finishing sixth with a middling 44-38 record.
They are trying to become just the second team in history to win the championship from the bottom half of the bracket after Houston’s 1995 run from the same spot in the Western Conference.
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The Rockets finished superbly after initially struggling in their title defence, prompting coach Rudy Tomjanovich’s famous “never underestimate the heart of a champion quote” after they vanquished Orlando in a finals sweep.
1 – Milwaukee (58-24) vs 8 – Miami (44-38)/Chicago (40-42)
The Heat’s miniscule playoff chances evaporated when they lost their play-in battle for seventh with Atlanta. Whether it’s Miami or Chicago who advance past the final qualifer, they will be lucky to avoid a sweep against a Bucks side peaking for the playoffs. A rematch of the 2021 Finals against Phoenix looks the most likely outcome. Prediction: Bucks 4-0 whoever they face
2 – Boston (57-25) vs 7 – Atlanta (41-41)
The Hawks avoided Milwaukee by upsetting Miami for the seventh seed but they will still be up against it against the Celtics who should have the luxury of easing All-Star swingman Jaylen Brown back into the line-up after cutting his hand while picking up a glass vase he knocked over while watering his plants, requiring five stitches. Brown doesn’t have a green thumb. Celtics 4-1
Joel Embiid with James Harden. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
3 – Philadelphia (54-28) vs 6 – Brooklyn (45-37)
Brooklyn regrouped after the dramatic trade deadline exits of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant to stave off the chasing pack and hold onto sixth spot. But they were still below .500 in that stretch with 11 wins from 24. They’ve been determined but that will only take you so far when you’re trying to stop likely MVP winner Joel Embiid dominating in the paint. Sixers 4-1
4 – Cleveland (51-31) vs 5 – New York (47-35)
Easily the best contest in the first round of the East. The only actual contest in the first round of the East. Donovan Mitchell could have been a Knick in the off-season but Utah wanted too much in the trade and the Cavaliers pounced to land the scoring threat they needed to complement their elite defence. The Knicks are more than satisfied with their second option in Jalen Brunson who has been the catalyst for getting Julius Randle back into All-Star form. Knicks 4-3 (as long as Randle is fit)
1 – Denver (53-28) vs 8 – Minnesota (42-40) /Oklahoma City (40-42)
The Timberwolves and Thunder square off on Saturday for the right to be confounded by Nikola Jokic’s court vision. Hopefully, OKC get another upset after eliminating the Pelicans so Josh Giddey gets some playoff reps under his belt before guiding the Boomers to more medals at the World Cup and Olympics this year and next. The sophomore guard played with the maturity of a veteran in the victory in New Orleans and his developing combination with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is building into one of the most potent duos in the NBA.
Denver have been cruising or stagnating in the final few weeks of the regular season and need to get back to their best in the first round even if their opponents don’t put up much of a fight because Phoenix will await in the next part of the bracket. Nuggets 4-0
2 – Memphis (51-31) vs 7 – LA Lakers (43-39)
It’s considered an upset by many to tip the second-seeded Grizzlies to knock over LeBron James’ Lakers … but it’s not. Memphis will win. The Lakers saved face by making the playoffs (via the play-in tournament) but anyone who saw the ugly way in which they squeaked past a wasteful Timberwolves team should be certain they won’t get over the Grizzlies. Ja Morant is firing again (on the court, that is) and Jaren Jackson jnr will nullify Anthony Davis near the rim. Grizzlies in 6
3 – Sacramento (48-34) vs 6 – Golden State (44-38)
This would be an upset if the higher-ranked squad advances. Sacramento are not only taking on their northern Californian neighbours for the first time in a playoff series, it is the first time they’ve been in the same post-season since they moved from Kansas City nearly 40 years ago. The Kings are not without a hope in their first playoff run in 17 seasons but the Warriors’ crunch-time five have the edge in firepower as well as experience. Warriors in 6
4 – Phoenix (45-37) vs 5 – LA Clippers (44-38)
Paul George’s return from a knee injury is still shrouded in mystery and even if he gets back on court early in this series, the Clippers’ cursed playoff history looks set to add another tale of woe. Kawhi Leonard will not only have to lead LA’s scoring but defend Kevin Durant or Devin Booker. He can’t do it all. The Suns are 8-0 when KD has played since the trade and the West is opening up nicely for them. Suns in 6
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