Opinion
If you ask Paul Thomas Anderson or Quentin Tarantino they will say that they’re not copying, they’re paying homage to the great directors that came before them. Dirk Diggler showing his fellow co-stars through his “dojo” in Boogie Nights is not copying Karen Hill in Goodfellas bragging about her custom couch that you have to sit in to believe (go ahead sit in it Belle), it’s an overt homage.
It’s an expression of love for the legends that came before him.
Ross Lyon and Brad Scott have done a similar thing, except instead of borrowing from Martin Scorcese, in the case of PTA and Tarantino, they have borrowed from every successful coach that built their success off the rise of surge footy. But in doing that, each coach has brought their own specific flair and flavour.
The only thing is, the two are looking remarkably the same.
Before getting into the numbers that support Lyon and Scott’s style adoption, consider the lists that they are working with. Both are on the younger side in terms of age and experience with the Saints sitting eleventh for both and the Bombers ranking 15th for age and 16th for game experience.
Notwithstanding this, their builds are relatively similar with each side chock full of C to B-plus players with genuine A-graders in short supply. For Essendon, you could argue that either Darcy Parish or Zach Merrett are A-graders but it would be a challenging position to take. For the Saints, their only borderline A-grader, Max King, hasn’t touched grass this season.
It would be too strong to say that the lists appear to be full of list cloggers, instead it would be fairer to say that the 2023 lists are the products of each club’s previous utilisation of free agency. It can be a good mechanism to supplement existing talent, but teams will run into trouble when they build the bones of their side through free agency. It is a subtle but important distinction.
Ross Lyon addresses his St Kilda players. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
In free agency it is more difficult to control costs – you are specifically paying for past performance – and it is much easier to get into a bidding war over specialist players such as Brad Hill and Jake Stringer. Teams that build the bones of their list in free agency are more likely to get a one-season sugar rush than they are to see sustained, longer-term success at an elite level. As such, it should be used as a tool and not the foundation to build a team.
Given the list builds, each club engaged in deeply impressive expectation limitation campaigns the likes of which we haven’t seen since, well, the Coalition began telling everyone they’re going to lose every election for the foreseeable future. Both coaches came in and said words to the effect of “We’re not going to be very good this year or for the foreseeable future”.
This is also known as “The Dutton.”
And yet, the Saints and Bombers each sit 4-1 on the year and are perched in the top two spots on the ladder. Each has taken at least one big scalp with Essendon beating Melbourne this week and the Saints beating Essendon and going life and death with Collingwood. The seemingly limited stocks of young players have been proven to be more fruitful than expected. Scott has empowered players like Sam Durham or Nic Martin while also letting Alwyn Davey Jr loose on the competition.
Lyon has been more successful, however, in building around younger players more out of necessity than anything. Even though the Saints list is statistically older, younger players are more at the centre of their success this season. Players like Mitch Owens, Marcus Windhager and Mattaes Phillipou are all sitting front and centre of the Renaissance. Lyon is the Medici, handing out games to those he deems worthy and providing them with the resources for growth.
Each coach has also been wildly successful in resurrecting the careers of players that I, along with everyone who has two eyes and a mouth, had written off.
For the Bombers, Brandon Zerk Thatcher has become a genuine asset. He has not lost a single 1v1 this season (out of ten) and is averaging seven intercept possessions a game. A man whose name lends itself to unkind nicknames, and at 24 years old looked a genuine list clogger, has become a key part of one of the game’s best defences.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
For the Saints, the story begins and ends with Mason Wood, the greatest VFL player since Robin Nahas graced the hallowed turf of various suburban ovals dotted around Victoria. Wood has, however, been unleashed on the AFL as a rookie listed, age 29 player. Wood ranks fifth in total goal assists this season and has set virtually every one of his counting stats career highs this season. Mason Wood’s start to the year would be like if a B-Movie actor suddenly appeared in a Scorcese movie. Think Brendan Fraser in Killers of the Flower Moon.
But beyond the micro, the way that they are playing the game is effectively the same. Each coach has learned the right lessons from the years that they have been out, and have changed their game styles dramatically while still sticking to the core defensive tenets that made them so coveted in the first place.
St Kilda and Essendon sit first and second in metres gained and uncontested possessions per game. Both sit top five in contested possessions per game. They are both in the top eight in scoring and the top three in points against. Neither side has prioritised stoppage clearances but the Bombers are top five in centre clearances specifically, reflecting their better personnel in the guts. The Saints, on the other hand, have been more effective in generating turnovers sitting first in intercepts compared to tenth for the Bombers. They can thank Lyon’s defensive wizardry for that tasty little number.
The only place where there is a real departure in emphasis is that the Saints have adopted the high variance, kick-to-space game style more readily and as such they have the most turnovers in the AFL. The Bombers have clearly emphasised being more deliberate as they sit in the Bottom 5 in turnovers per game. This, again, could be a reflection of St Kilda’s injury crisis and lack of key forwards.
There are a lot of similarities between the Saints and the Bombers, and their new God-like coaches. The question now for each side is how will the season end. What does that mean for next season? Will they abandon The Dutton and make the same mistakes they have made in the past, thinking they are nearer to the premiership than they truly are?
Or will they remain steadfast in the slow and steady build?
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