Opinion
With the relatively recent news that Tasmania is getting an AFL team, it prompted a big question in my mind. No, it has nothing to do with the depth of the AFL’s talent pool.
It also has nothing to do with the trajectory of Jordan Peele’s career since Get Out, though I am getting a bit concerned about that.
The question is a simple one. If you redrafted the entire league, gave Tasmania pick 1, and put everyone on the exact same contract, who would Tasmania pick first if they were coming into the league in 2024?
This is not that dissimilar to the trade value exercise in the sense that positional value and age are paramount, even if the contracts are irrelevant for this exercise. To that end we can pretty much get rid of all ruckmen for this exercise.
As I have written previously, ruckmen are not that relevant unless you are either excellent or terrible. The middle class is interchangeable as the position is built on a bunch of 50/50s and the success or failure of their game depends far more on other players.
It’s a symbiotic position the success of which is basically dependant on how good your midfielders are.
Now for some stats to illustrate that point. Firstly, and simply, teams that win the hitout count win 39 percent of games. The top three total hit-out to advantage players in the AFL are Jarrod Witts, Sean Darcy and Todd Goldstein all of whom ply their trade for bottom six teams.
Having an elite ruckman is not detrimental to winning, but it is also not critical to it. It does not make sense, therefore, to devote resources to such a dependant position in a salary capped and draft-based sport. Ruckman is the running back of the AFL.
It would also be hard to find a place for defenders. In a game where defence is largely played by the team, the lockdown defender like Sam Taylor is not the one to start with. Put simply, you can’t sell Sam Taylor.
The defender you want is that swashbuckling, swaggering, Rance-style full back who gives as much going forward as he does defending. The defender you want to include, therefore, is Darcy Moore. He is an exceptional leader and professional to boot, a key factor for a new club coming in.
So that leaves us with midfielders, forwards, and Darcy Moore.
We probably need to cull for age here. GWS’ first finals series was in 2016, their 5th year in the AFL. Realistically, you want your first pick to be playing in that first finals series so the cut off should be 28 for this exercise, which cuts out players like Jeremy Cameron.
Realistically, the midfielders that you would want are not the pure mids like in the Andy Brayshaw or Sam Walsh mould. They are, of course, extremely valuable players but the game has devalued pure stoppage work and needs players that can go forward and kick goals as well as do the dirty work around the ball.
Of the young mids, Noah Anderson is the one to include as he has kicked seven goals from eight games this season and is very experienced playing for bad teams and still playing well.
So, we have done some age and position-based culling. Let’s list the players that are left and see if we can cull any of those. To my eyes we have to choose from Darcy Moore, Max King, Ben King, Nick Daicos, Noah Anderson, Christian Petracca, Marcus Bontempelli, Shai Bolton, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Aaron Naughton.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Nick Daicos is the only one who breaks the previous rule about wanting players who have kicking goals as a string to their bow, but he has already kicked 6 goals this year and is so young and freaky at this point in his career it would be malpractice not to include him.
So, who can we cull? Even though Charlie Curnow is young, freakish and excellent he has also missed essentially three years of his career with knee trouble so I would not bet the franchise on him.
Shai Bolton is the kind of archetype that you would want but his slighter frame would concern me if I were the Tassie team, as would his occasionally selfish (to his team’s detriment) style of play.
Walking into a terrible on-field situation like Tasmania would be, would likely exacerbate that specific issue. Bolton is a bit of a Johnny Depp. When he’s good, he’s beyond belief. But when he’s bad, it’s just an annoying Keith Richards impression.
I would also get rid of McKay and Naughton. While they are both wonderful players, neither is at the level.
So now we’re down to Moore, Daicos, Anderson, the Kings, Petracca and Bontempelli.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
At this point you’re picking between Alexandra Daddario and Sydney Sweeney. You can’t really go wrong. Do you want the key position younger gun? Do you want the leader? Do you want the versatile superstar?
For me, I want the player that can provide a reasonable answer to all of those questions. Give me Marcus Bontempelli.
Bont is 27 at the time of writing but will be 28 in 2024 so he is right on the cusp age wise. But he is extraordinary. At this point, going through the numbers of each of those players is kind of useless. It’s about vibes. At least twice this season, Marcus Bontempelli has clearly entered games with the mentality that he will not allow his team to lose.
Sitting 0-2 and needing wins fast, the Bulldogs came up against Brisbane and Richmond in rounds 3 and 4. In those games, Bontempelli was exceptional. He tackled ferociously, had 16 and 17 contested possessions in the games respectively and had 14 score involvements across the two games. When his team needed him, Bontempelli stood up.
Beyond that, the Brisbane game was the game where Jamaraa Ugle-Hagan famously recreated the Nicky Winmar photo in response to racist abuse he received the previous wee Alongside Ugle-Hagan, providing genuine support and never making the moment about himself, was Bontempelli.
He is a leader in every sense of the word. But he is also versatile, big, never injured, and has a game that should age beautifully.
Exceptional on the ground, just as good off it, and by all accounts a driver of standards at the club. Tasmania does not want to make the mistakes that Gold Coast made. They need on field leadership, a vocal driver of standards (unlike Gary Ablett) and mature talent immediately.
Marcus Bontempelli would be my pick 1.
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Kane learned the hard way that you NEVER switch the footy off!
Poor Jeremy McGovern and Jack Darling!
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