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Having more players to choose from means NSW should have an advantage come State of Origin time over Queensland.
But the Blues have continually under-performed in the annual interstate showdown by not learning from the mistakes of the past.
With just two NRL rounds left before the squads are announced for Origin I at Adelaide Oval on May 31, the pressure is again on the Blues to come up with a line-up that will wrest the shield back from the Maroons.
The Blues have won three of the past five series against Queensland so it can’t be all that bad, right?
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Possibly, but realistically they could have and probably should have won all five. In the pandemic-delayed end-of-season series in 2020, the Maroons should have been ripe for the plucking after their coach, Kevin Walters, withdrew a few weeks before the first match after landing the Broncos job.
Queensland’s 2020 upset was an all-timer. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Enter Wayne Bennett and a squad containing eight rookies and a 2-1 boilover which remains one of the biggest upsets in Origin history.
Last year, the Blues made a raft of selection changes throughout the series but again lost in a game-three decider.
When Queensland struck a golden generation in 2006, they stuck by the core group of players and rattled off eight straight series wins eventually holding the shield in 11 out of 12 years save for 2014 when the Blues took advantage of Maroons halfback Cooper Cronk breaking his arm in game one.
NSW have a habit of chopping and changing which has been going one for more than four decades.
Of the 87 Origin players who got just one game in the competition’s 43-year history, only 33 have been Queenslanders who are renowned for their famed “pick and stick” policy even after defeats.
The opposite viewpoint is generational at NSW. Ryan Matterson was turfed after one game last year – his uncle Terry Matterson suffered the same fate in 1989.
Kotoni Staggs. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
All up, the Blues have used 303 players, Queensland just 236.
Matterson, Tariq Sims, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Kotoni Staggs were all punted after a six-point defeat in the 2022 series opener. Fittler was justified for making the changes in the end when the Blues thumped Queensland in game two but either way you look at it, they got the side wrong at the selection table from the get-go last year.
Throughout Origin history, Queensland have invariably had a couple of designated workers in their pack who churn through a mountain of dirty work to earn their teammates’ respect before the flashier players out wide do the damage on the scoreboard.
From under-rated toilers in the early days like Wally Fullerton-Smith, Paul Vautin and Gary Larson to the likes of Matt Gillett and Dallas Johnson, and in more recent times, Nate Myles and Patrick Carrigan, the Maroons have always had the kind of players who will roll up their sleeves to tackle themselves to a standstill and do their fair share of hit-ups.
They look like they’ve got a few more rolling off the production line in the form of Reuben Cotter and Tom Gilbert judging by their impressive debut efforts last year.
NSW have a similar player in Jake Trbojevic – they didn’t pick him for game one last year before realising the error of their ways and rushing their best workhorse straight back.
Patrick Carrigan, Selwyn Cobbo, Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai made their debut last season. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
When you think of big-game Origin players over the years, the kind who don’t necessarily stand out at club level but become superhuman in the interstate skirmishes, how many names do you rattle off before you come to a NSW player?
Dane Gagai, Valentine Holmes and Kalyn Ponga in recent times have continued a trend that dates back to 1980.
The next item might explain why.
Gagai, Josh Papalii, Felise Kaufusi … these guys would probably be considered past their prime by NSW and jettisoned already but the Maroons could very well pick them again this year and they’ll again prove they’re still more than capable at the top level.
There’s no doubting every NSW player who has worn the sky-blue jersey has stepped onto the field wanting to win.
Queensland players don’t just want to be successful, they are desperate to do what is ever necessary to upset the bluebloods from the south.
NSW fans make fun of the Sunshine State’s rabid passion for Origin but even though they are outnumbered as far as population and crowd sizes, the Queenslanders more than make up for it with their fervent intensity for battle.
Apart from Ben Hunt relocating to hooker, every player the Maroons picked last year played the same position in club footy.
And you could argue, as many Dragons fans do, that hooker is Hunt’s best spot, although their coach doesn’t agree.
NSW have tended to shoehorn in the best players into whichever position is vacant – it’s a tough situation, particularly for a spot like fullback where NSW have three uber-talented stars in James Tedesco, Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic available, as well as Dylan Edwards and Clint Gutherson who can’t get a look-in.
Even though Trbojevic is struggling for form lately as hamstring and groin injuries have slowed him down in the opening months of the season, he’s all but certain to get a run in the centres alongside Mitchell.
Last year when those two were unavailable, Fittler used Jack Wighton and Matt Burton playing away from their preferred positions in the centres, mixed in with specialists like Staggs and Stephen Crichton.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
It is another example of NSW being befuddled by their embarrassment of riches – there is often a push for club combinations to be parachuted into the Origin arena.
The Blues have been Penrith-centric in recent years and with South Sydney the form team of the NRL at the moment, some pundits are picking as many as six Rabbitohs in their game-one NSW squads – Mitchell, Cameron Murray and Damien Cook are certainties while Campbell Graham, Tevita Tatola and Cody Walker are also chances to make the squad.
Club combinations help but they’re not the be-all and end-all in a representative team. What should be an obvious notion of picking players on form to fill the positions should outweigh the supposed benefits of familiarity.
Queensland have managed to do just fine by regularly bringing in players from a range of clubs.
Curiously enough, the years when they were dominated by a large influx from the one club – Brisbane in the 1990s and early 2000s – is Queensland’s least successful period when NSW won 10 out of 16 times even though the Broncos were perennial premiership contenders during that era.