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Stephen Larkham took the positives out of Saturday’s demoralising loss to the Chiefs.
He spoke about the fact the Brumbies gifted three tries through lapses of concentration; Luke Jacobson’s dart down the blindside was a forgettable moment, Cortez Ratima’s intercept came from scrappy and slow attack while Shaun Stevenson’s five-pointer came from another lapse of concentration at the breakdown.
But three things stood out from the Brumbies’ sorry night, which confirmed the fact Larkham’s men had missed a top two finish.
Tom Wright is tackled during the Brumbies’ defeat to the Chiefs at GIO Stadium on May 27, 2023, in Canberra. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
First, the Brumbies attempted to regularly beat the Chiefs at what they’re so good at: counter-attacking rugby.
Right from the opening kick-off, the Brumbies ran the ball out through Tom Wright.
While it looked promising at stages, the Reds’ win earlier in the month, albeit against a weaker side in New Plymouth, showed that a strong, disciplined game is more effective against the red hot Chiefs.
Second, their rolling maul was stopped dead in its tracks.
The Brumbies got no penetration from the maul, which not only killed off their first-phase attack it also meant they got no cheap points from the usually unstoppable train. No wonder Jones has employed a specialist maul coach for the World Cup.
Third, it confirmed Jones’ notion that “possession rugby is dead”, or, at least, from an Australian perspective.
The Wallabies won’t win the World Cup by playing possession rugby. It doesn’t have the size nor physicality and accuracy at the breakdown as well as the cohesion to play how Ireland does.
The Brumbies had 59 per cent possession and 58 per cent of territory and made the Chiefs make 233 tackles compared to the home side’s 168 yet they struggled to make a dent in the opposition line.
One of the few times the Brumbies made inroads on the Chiefs’ line was when Tamati Tua ran straight over the Chiefs’ smallest man on the field, Brad Weber, and offloaded to Len Ikitau to score.
Tua’ straight line came first phase from a rolling maul that had sucked in the visitors’ big men.
It was a pointer to how Jones – and others – will look to attack with a bigger ball runner like Samu Kerevi at inside centre.
It’s also why Jones is considering playing Jordan Petaia at inside centre should indeed anything happen to Kerevi, or he’s played at outside centre, because the modern game is about power rugby. Petaia has that explosive and the skill-set to play multiple roles.
There’s been plenty of players that have left for opportunities overseas, with several enhancing their careers by leaving.
French lock-in-waiting Emmanuel Meafou is one case, another is Scottish midfielder Sione Tuipuloti while Mack Hansen has turned heads ever since he left the nation’s capital.
But closer to home, another player is Richard Hardwick.
The soon-to-be 29-year-old has been one of Australia’s best in 2023. The issue is, the two-Test Wallaby can’t be in Eddie Jones’ plans because he recently took advantage of change in World Rugby’s eligibility protocols to play for his country of birth Namibia.
Richard Hardwick has been one of the Rebels’ best in 2023. But could his form have seen him selected by Eddie Jones? (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
There’s plenty of strong openside flankers pushing their World Cup case.
Michael Hooper remains the favourite to wear the No.7 jersey despite being outplayed by Fraser McReight all year.
Brad Wilkin continues to show many Test characteristics required to challenge for Wallabies selection.
Carlo Tizzano has made an impression since returning and is a better player.
While Pete Samu covers every position but isn’t an out-and-out openside.
Hooper’s experience and work rate remains first-class – his absence was telling in the Waratahs’ defeat to the Crusaders – has him in a tight-run contest with McReight, who has been outstanding on both sides of the ball.
But the one concern some have with McReight is whether he’s strong enough to withstand the brutality that awaits him at the World Cup.
The Championship Cup final at the Aviva revealed the onslaught and physical test that awaits any openside that puts their heads into rucks.
It’s why Hardwick, who is second only to Ethan Blackadder for turnovers per game (2.7), would likely have come into the equation under Jones in 2023.
Rennie didn’t have Hardwick in his plans.
To be fair to the ex-Wallabies coach, Hardwick’s injuries had slowed his progress.
But the Rebels back-rower, who has played at No.8 to allow for the Rebels to play Wilkin at openside flanker, could have shaped as a strong option for Jones had he still be available.
Pictures of Harry Wilson running back into the teeth of the defence were appreciated world-wide, as the big No.8 stuck his tongue out before contact.
It showed a player loving the contact and the physicality of the sport.
The issue is, Wilson was a sitting duck.
Opposition defences are too good for someone to run straight at them.
Not only is it a simple enough tackle for a physical team, but it also allows opposition defences to attack the ball at the breakdown because few teammates can keep up with them to adequately cleanout.
However, his line first phase from a lineout back towards the Highlanders’ big men was brilliant.
It was the sort of line that had Scott Robertson saying he’d “fallen” for Wilson when he first burst onto the scene in 2020.
It also allowed Wilson to show off his razzle-dazzle nature, where he fooled Mitch Hunt at fullback before hitting James O’Connor with a brilliant running pass.
The highlight moment revealed Wilson’ immense skill-set that has been missing in action for too long.
Wilson’s work-rate has many singing his praises – he leads the carries (183) easily and is the only forward in the top 10 for run metres, too – but by becoming a battering ram he’s too often had to put away his skills.
The Reds need another one or two ball-running forwards to help him rediscover his best.
Max Jorgensen’s season-ending injury has potentially spared Darren Coleman a big selection call.
With Jorgensen injured, the easy decision would be to shift Donaldson to fullback – where the two-Test Wallaby started the season – and bring in Tane Edmed to start at 10. The Waratahs even have another game against Moana Pasifika to get the combination working.
The other more daring decision would be to shift Mark Nawaqanitawase to fullback and allow the outside back, who was at his best against Ireland and Wales last year when he was allowed to get off his wing, to rove.
Harry Wilson – the brother of Junior Wallabies skipper Teddy – could also start at fullback after growing throughout the Waratahs’ heavy loss after coming on after 10 minutes.
But the question comes back to who Coleman believes his best shot caller is.
Ben Donaldson’s Waratahs struggled after significant changes to the backline. (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)
Donaldson had grown throughout the course of the season, but he’s been outplayed by Carter Gordon and, to a lesser extent, Noah Lolesio this year.
The difference is both men have looked comfortable taking the ball to the line while directing the side across the park. Donaldson has been reluctant runner.
Even Tom Lynagh against the Highlanders looked clear about what his role in the side was. His kicking game allowed the Reds to play with a sense of direction and purpose.
Donaldson struggled against the Crusaders.
He wasn’t helped by the fact the Waratahs were without their international midfield pairing with Lalakai Foketi and Izaia Perese likely to return against Moana Pasifika.
Without the duo, the Waratahs’ cohesion struggled while their kick-chase was poor.
Jorgensen’s injury early and Joey Walton’s hard yellow card didn’t help either.
But Donaldson’s decision-making let him down.
His early crossfield kick was the wrong option while a short dropkick restart when the Waratahs were down to 14 was strange too.
Just ask John Connolly what it’s like not to have a functioning scrum.
The Wallabies were bundled out in the 2007 World Cup quarter-finals after being smashed at the scrum by England.
It meant their backline wasn’t able to get their hands on any clean ball, while allowing Jonny Wilkinson to kick England to victory.
The Force on multiple occasions have been smashed up front in the set-piece and simply haven’t stood a chance.
Last month they were hammered at the set-piece by the Reds, their scrum and maul woes continued against the Crusaders and once again the Rebels took them to the cleaners in the area on Friday night.
The Force of course have lost re-signed prop Tom Robertson recently, but Santiago Medrano’s absence has hurt too.
While the Force have some good young props coming through, it’s been their Achilles heel in 2023.
Christy Doran’s Australian Super Rugby team of the week
Matt Gibbon, Folau Fainga’a, Sam Talakai, Josh Canham, Tom Hooper, Josh Kemeny, Fraser McReight, Harry Wilson, Ryan Louwrens, Tom Lynagh, Dylan Pietsch, James O’Connor, Len Ikitau, Lachie Anderson, Tom Wright.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.