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There’s a lot of chatter about near-misses, if-onlys or 70 minutes of goodness when analysing the performances of Australia’s five Super Rugby Pacific teams this season.
Much less is said about actual poor play costing teams.
Entering an exciting Round 15, there is no room for the big mess-up or it really is going to cost a quarter-final spot if that’s not the case already.
The reason for this opening is simple.
Why did the Queensland Reds slip-up 35-30 at the death against the Highlanders last round?
No one has said it was because Hunter Paisami failed to dive on a loose ball 90 seconds from full-time or, at the very least, shoe it 40m downfield off the deck.
Trying to pick up the ball on the run was a cardinal sin from a Wallaby and might have even got a top schoolboy player a stern rebuke. Scrum gift to the Highlanders from the knock on and we know the rest.
The Reds go into a sudden-death game but those high-stakes games are everywhere.
The Queensland Reds are playing for their season in Suva on Saturday against the Fijian Drua.
Winner goes through, loser bows out. It’s almost that clearcut unless a mess of bonus points flips things.
Certainly, Reds No.8 Harry Wilson got the sudden-death context when he said: “The quarter-finals have come a week early.”
The Reds have actually named a smart team with James O’Connor back at flyhalf and Paisami up for a redemption role at inside centre.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Both selections mean the Reds will be going direct at the Drua, playing at the line. O’Connor’s calmness to kick wisely too will be a big part of it.
The Melbourne Rebels pressed all the way when going down 33-26 to the ACT Brumbies in early May in Melbourne.
That result has to give the Rebels a deal of confidence around upsetting the Brumbies in Canberra on Friday night. It’s curtains on the season if they don’t.
The 11th-placed Rebels of 2023 create stuff and that will always make them dangerous.
Lock Matt Philip is finding his game legs again after his long lay-off and his head-to-head against Brumby Cadeyrn Neville is exactly the match-up we need to see. Two workhorses will be going at it, potentially for one Test job.
The Rebels have been found wanting over the closing 20 minutes of matches.
The bench is loaded in this one for a big finish with Alex Mafi, Pone Fa’amausili, Trevor Hosea, Vaiolini Ekuasi and Stacey Ili.
Rebels coach Kevin Foote has put some of his best on the bench for late impact.
He doesn’t want to be left lamenting that he outsmarted himself like former Wallabies coach Rod Macqueen once did by leaving weapon Toutai Kefu on the bench against the All Blacks in Auckland. The Wallabies were too far behind for Kefu to count when he came on for the second half.
The Chiefs have rested a host of stars for Saturday’s game in Perth. There’s no Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane, Damian McKenzie, Brad Weber, Emoni Narawa or Samisoni Taukei’aho travelling to the most western port in Super Rugby Pacific.
The Western Force are firming to make the top eight with this sudden advantage.
One of the neon signs in sport is a top side playing with nothing to gain. The Chiefs have No.1 spot into the quarter-finals locked up, whether they win by 50 or lose by 40.
That has to soften their mindset, a bit or a lot.
Whichever way you look at it, this is the perfect time to excel for former Wallabies lock Izack Rodda, fullback Chase Tiatia and excellent English centre Sam Spink.
The bottom line is the eighth-placed Highlanders are average. It will be a disaster should only the Brumbies and NSW Waratahs make the top eight. There’s still a chance that the Reds-Force, Reds-Rebels or Force-Rebels fill positions No.7 and No.8 into the quarter-finals.
Anything less should be considered a fail from Australian rugby this season.
Lote Tuqiri went from a Super Rugby debut to soaring for a high kick to score a try in a World Cup final in 2003. It took all of nine months.
We are three seasons into the Suliasi Vunivalu experiment and we are still inching towards him being a Test winger.
No one can say he has never been given every bit of encouragement. His new two-year deal is still a signing on potential.
The good thing is he is showing an ability to make try impacts off his wing which he never could last year.
He set one up against Moana Pasifika and he scored his own against the Highlanders last round.
Vunivalu feels the improvements: “This year, I’m understanding the game more to go looking for balls.
“I’ve had six weeks without niggles or cramps and I’ve played some 80-minute games. That builds confidence too.”
He has a novel plan to even up the crowd support in Suva when he visits with the Reds.
“We have quite a few Fijians in the Reds side. We are hitting up the rest of the boys for tickets for our families so we can match-up to the Drua fans,” Vunivalu said with a smile.