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Opinion
Brisbane, St Kilda, Fremantle and Sydney all come off the bye this week, ready to attack the second half of the year.
Each one of them is fascinating for different reasons, but who will stand up to be counted as the heat ramps up in the run to September?
So far in 2023, Brisbane is doing as Brisbane does. They hit their bye sitting third on the ladder, having been first, fourth, second, sixth on the ladder at their bye in the last four seasons. None of these have resulted in a grand final appearance.
The Lions problem under Chris Fagan is that they haven’t had any defensive steel, to complement their potency in attack. From 2019-22 they ranked in the top two for offence in each season, but not once under Fagan have they ranked in the top four in defence. Last year, premiers Geelong conceded 66 points per game. Brisbane conceded 84.
It doesn’t stand up, it won’t stand up, and it hasn’t stood up.
Cam Rayner of the Lions celebrates a goal. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
But this year, Brisbane has changed. They are finally ranked in the top four for points conceded, with only Collingwood and St Kilda ahead of them. Since Port put 126 points on them in Round 1, they have averaged only 74 points against.
Harris Andrews is back in form after a couple of down years, and Jack Payne has improved significantly in his sixth year on the list – tall players do take more time, after all.
But more than personnel, the Lions are protecting their defence by not allowing as many inside 50s as in previous years.
But it’s often said you have to give something to get something, and Brisbane are ranked sixth in attack this year, despite the form of Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron.
They might not be moving the ball as quickly, aren’t as polished inside 50, or are still working out the right mix forward of centre. Still, they have much better balance to set them up for September success this time around.
The Saints were one of the feel-good stories of the first two months of the season, back under the careful management of Ross Lyon who was looking to take care of “unfinished business” with a second term at Moorabbin.
St Kilda opened the season with wins against Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Essendon and Gold Coast, before a heroic loss to Collingwood in Adelaide during Gather Round where they went toe-to-toe all night. Then came a rebound win against Carlton, before another brave loss to a top class opposition in Port Adelaide.
Things looked rosy.
But their last month before the bye, the Saints beat North 64-34 in the ugliest match of the year, got obliterated by Adelaide to the tune of 52 points, scunged a win over the lowly Giants, and lost to Hawthorn in a game the Hawks had 10 more scoring shots. The wheels were wobbling, if not already fallen off, despite the return of Max King.
For St Kilda supporters, all they can think about is last year when they hit their bye with an 8-3 record yet only won another three games for the year.
This year they are 7-4, and the wins have very little gloss on them – the Dockers, Dogs and Suns were all badly out of form to start the year, Carlton and North have one win between them over the last two months, and the Giants sit comfortably in the bottom four.
What the Saints do have in their favour is an incredibly friendly draw to help them get to finals. Richmond twice, West Coast, plus North Melbourne, Carlton, Hawthorn and Gold Coast again, plus a struggling Sydney to kick things off in Round 13. There’s plenty of meat on the bone there, to get to 12 or even 13 wins to guarantee a September berth.
After a very poor start to the year, which saw them 2-5 after seven rounds, the Dockers might finally be on the charge thanks to four wins in a row before their bye.
It seems this year, more than any other season, when you play certain teams is more critical than ever before. Outside of Collingwood, all teams are having form and/or injury issues that is seeing them lose all momentum.
Freo certainly needed a circuit breaker after Round 7, coming off back-to-back eight goals losses to Western Bulldogs and Brisbane. They got it in the form of Hawthorn, which is not the first time this year a team in need of confidence has received it by playing one of the Hawks, Eagles or Roos at just the right time.
They were then able to parlay that return to form with further wins against Sydney and Geelong (both crippled through injury), before taking down Melbourne at the MCG for the second year in a row.
What the Dockers have done is start to score again. In the first seven weeks they were averaging 77 points per game, which has lifted to 101 over the last month.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Jye Amiss is still a teenager, but is starting to show why he was so highly rated as a junior – he’s hitting the scoreboard consistently, and accurately. Luke Jackson is finally starting to hit his straps, as has Michael Frederick, and Michael Walters is looking better than at any time since COVID hit.
The next five weeks will tell the story for Fremantle – easy kills at home against Richmond, Essendon and Carlton surely await, while road trips against GWS and the Bulldogs should hold no fears at all. If they are going to be a serious football side, they should be 4-1 or even 5-0 in that run, and a top six finish beckons.
Are the Swans suffering a grand final hangover, or has their season been decimated by injuries? As usual, the answer is a combination of both.
There’s no doubt Sydney has been structurally impacted more than any other team due to injuries.
Their three key defensive pillars, Dane Rampe and the McCartin brothers, have played 14 games between them and 12 of those were Rounds 1-4. First choice ruckman Tom Hickey has only played twice. Back-up Peter Ladhams, who can also play as a handy forward, has started to go in and out.
Lance Franklin of the Swans speaks to his teammates. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
Up forward, Buddy Franklin has been struggling most of the year, Joel Amartey was starting to look good but also went down, Sam Reid hasn’t played at all and won’t, and now Logan McDonald is in the midst of two months out.
But Sydney also aren’t winning the ball at the source. They rank last in the competition for clearance differential, and 15th in contested possession differential. The former, particularly, can’t be blamed on missing key position players at either end.
John Longmire, ever slow to make a move, finally threw Isaac Heeney into the midfield against Carlton, where he had seven clearances on his own. It needed to happen earlier once Callum Mills went down. Luke Parker will be missing this week through suspension, so the band-aids are still out for the Swans.
Can Sydney mount a finals charge? They don’t have many easy games in the second half of the year, so you’d have to back against them. And even if they limp in, it’s just not going to happen for them this season.