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Opinion

Flem’s Verdict: Why Aussies have edge over India in WTC final - and the rising star who will be the difference

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Expert
6th June, 2023
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A better pace attack, the continued rise of all-rounder Cameron Green and question marks around India’s batting add up to Australia being too strong in a close one in the World Test Championship final. 

There’s not too many shocks in either squad but India look a bit short in the batting department whereas the Aussies clearly have the edge when it comes to the fast bowlers and then they’ve got a six-foot-eight guy ready to back up the main quicks with 145km/h thunderbolts delivered from a great height. 

On paper, I just think Australia’s got the edge. I think they’ve got better options and a stronger line-up with Green coming in at No.6. 

His bowling will play a big part in the World Test Championship final but also in the Ashes.

There’s still questions about our batting – can David Warner get himself into form so he actually gets to do what he’s called for in the last couple of days and retire at the SCG in January.

I don’t mind him coming out and saying that. It’s proactive to say I’m not gonna play past that point but he’s got this game and five more Ashes Tests in England to get through to get there.

It didn’t bother me, it puts closure to it and I’d love for him to have a fairytale ending but we know that doesn’t always happen in sport. 

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The rest of the batting looks rock solid. Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith have been getting used to the conditions in county cricket, Usman Khawaja seems to score runs everywhere these days and Travis Head is a bit of Bazball himself in the way his strike rate is close to run a ball in Tests.

I think he’s a lot better placed than he was on the Ashes tour four years ago.

I’m excited. I think this concept adds real context to Test match cricket and the longer it goes on, the more prestige it will have. And it means there’s no such thing as dead rubbers in the qualifying period because it all adds up.

The Aussies were very disappointed last time missing out on the final to New Zealand when over rates cost them their spot.

For players like Nathan Lyon who don’t get to play in the white-ball sides, this is their chance to say they were a world champion. It’s great having on your resume that you won a World Cup and some guys won three of them a couple of decades ago so for Test match specialists, this is their chance.

ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - DECEMBER 10: David Warner of Australia bats during day three of the Second Test Match in the series between Australia and the West Indies at Adelaide Oval on December 10, 2022 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

India are going to be really up for this after an unbelievable IPL final and it’s already a sell-out so the crowds and the worldwide interest is going to be massive. 

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For either side, if you’re gonna say you’re No.1 in the world then you’ve got to win the Test championship. 

The build-up hasn’t been ideal with not a lot of the players from both sides mainly playing white-ball cricket or none at all recently. It’d be great if there was time for a warm-up match beforehand but we’re not going to know if that’s a factor until after the game. 

Not playing tour games has been the way for a few years now and the boys are pretty experienced so I think they’ll know exactly how many balls they need to do at training, how much running they need to do to be right. 

But sometimes you’re unlucky as a quick – when you’ve got 10 times your body weight going through your body, injuries happen.

It’s the same for the Indian seamers who are coming off four-over games and a lot of travel. 

For the Aussies, it’s the start of six Tests in seven weeks and for someone like Pat Cummins, as the captain and fast bowler, that’s going to be a monumental effort for him to get through all of those.

Scott Boland is already in for this Test with Josh Hazlewood still not quite right after his side soreness and it wouldn’t surprise me if Michael Neser plays a few matches and they split up some of the workload with Mitchell Starc as well.

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In this match, the Aussie quicks will be targeting India’s top order to get an early crack at Cheteshwar Pujara and Virat Kohli. 

Pujara could be a thorn in Australia’s side because he’s been playing county cricket but their other main batters are coming out of the IPL. 

I know Shubman Gill has been on the rise in all formats but this could be where he announces himself as a long-term Test star at opener with Rohit Sharma.

India have brought Ajinka Rahane back to bat at five because he’s got a good record against Australia but to me, that says that they’re worried. 

They’ve got faith in their spinning all-rounders to rescue them in the middle order – like they did in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series in India – and their wicketkeeper, KS Bharat, but he’s only got four Tests under his belt and is averaging 20.2. 

How they handle the extra bounce, swing and seam that our bowlers will get in England compared to India will be a huge factor. If they’re three wickets down early, that is Australia’s advantage.

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BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - DECEMBER 08: Cameron Green of Australia celebrates the wicket of Ollie Pope of England during day one of the First Test Match in the Ashes series between Australia and England at The Gabba on December 08, 2021 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Matt Roberts - CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images)

Cameron Green. (Photo by Matt Roberts – CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images)

The pitch at The Oval later in the summer tends to turn a bit if they’ve had dry conditions but this is only the second time there’s been a Test there in June ever. 

Looking at the scores in county cricket, generally you need to get runs in the first innings and with the ball both quicks and spinners have been getting wickets. So all bodes well for a great Test pitch.

The Oval tends to get more bounce than other English pitches so Green could really come into his own and I think he’ll like the swing of the Dukes ball. 

I reckon he could be a strong candidate for player of the match because the batting conditions should suit his front-foot play as well.

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