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Bazball: You can’t fight mean reversion

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Roar Guru
26th June, 2023
12

You have just been humbled 4-0 in a five Test Ashes series. Saved a 5-0 drubbing by unseasonal Sydney rain. An ironic and miserable glimmer of joy. Joe Root, your captain, looks gaunt; a mediocre series average does not help.

Soon after you front up for a three Test tour of the Caribbean against the modern day easybeats of Test cricket. Root miraculously is keen for another tilt as head boy.

Seeking a vanilla confidence-building series victory, you are easily beaten by easybeats. Another wretched series defeat.

You gotta try something, right? A tweak here or a tweak there hasn’t worked for a generation or three and you are desperate. Why the hell not go for something radical?

The ECB announces a new leadership team. Christchurch’s favourite son, Ben ‘one punch’ Stokes, replaces Root as captain. With a total of two wickets and six runs in his last Test, he is deemed the right man for the job. Because, you know, it’s Stokes!

A new coach is also appointed. He too is of sound South Island stock. His name is Brendon McCullum. For simplicity, let’s call him Baz. He brings with him a new way to play Test cricket. For simplicity, let’s call it Bazball.

Bazball (or Sehwag Ball or Warner Ball or WTAF Ball) has two simple principles:

1. When in no doubt, swing hard

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2. When in any doubt, swing harder

There are said to be no consequences for your actions under Bazball. Your place in the team is assured. Until it’s not.

Brendon McCullum, Head Coach of England looks on during a England Net Session at Lord's Cricket Ground on May 30, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Alex Davidson/Getty Images)

Brendon McCullum, Head Coach of England (Photo by Alex Davidson/Getty Images)

You are encouraged to play your instinctive game. Think Joe Root ramping ball one on day four. You are encouraged to have fun or at least be seen to be having fun. Nothing says fun like an ill-fitting jaguar green bucket hat.

So how is it all going and what will become of it?

Well in 13 Bazball Tests to date, England haven’t lost a series and have won 10 out of 13 Tests or a 77% win rate. Creditable, especially if you consider in the ten years before Bazball the win rate was only 40%. So an excellent start it must (reluctantly) be said and enough for the English media and fans to (again) celebrate the second coming.

However, at 13 Tests the sample is small and none of those were against India and only one of those (the Edgbaston loss) was against Australia. Three of the 13 Tests were tight. England lost two of those. Happy days, but again small sample.

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The true test of Bazball’s success will only be known in three or four years’ time when we have a bigger sample against a full cross section of Test playing teams, home and away. England’s 13 Bazball Tests so far compare with 66 Tests played in the five years prior.

So we should wait before jumping to conclusions.

Not so fast. This piece would not see the light of day without a wild conclusion to jump to. Here are four that you can throw in my face in 2027. Put it in the diary. 

1. From a batting perspective, Bazball can only be a sustained success with multiple world class batsmen in the team. When two fail, there would be at least two others who can go big very quickly and under pressure.

Think the West Indies teams of the 1980s, the Australian teams of the 1990s and to a lesser extent, the Indian team during patches since 2008. This England team has one world class batsman – Joe Root.

2. From a bowling perspective, success is harder to gauge. Bowler behaviour likely won’t and can’t change materially under Bazball. What we can say is that when a team containing 4+ world class batsmen is complemented with at least one world class bowler (again, think West Indies 1980s, Australia 1990s) then the chances of Bazball succeeding improve.

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Without a world class bowler, whatever exotic total your batsmen post won’t matter. This England team has no world class bowlers.

3. Is England saving Test cricket? No. England is trying to find a successful formula after micro-eras of success in the last four or five decades.

The T20 “you’re only as good as your last maximum” mindset has arrived in Test cricket and may attract new audiences. If every national team adopts the win or bust approach, crowds may stick around. But that will be a byproduct of Bazball and not its driving force.

4. Will England succeed? Not this England. Not unless they discover 2-3 more batsmen who can score runs in all conditions and have a sound enough technique to withstand what’s thrown at them.

Harry Brooks shows promise but by the time he and maybe others establish themselves, Root will be in the commentary box. Oh and they’ll need to discover a world class bowler. 

An average team can’t become a good team just by swinging harder. You can’t fight mean reversion.

Bring on Lord’s.

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