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Opinion
The Blues have nothing to lose in Origin III. Well, almost – there is a match to be played and they’ll lose the right to say they avoided a clean sweep if Queensland get the better of them again.
But the State of Origin shield is long gone for a second successive year even though it won’t be presented to the Maroons until after full-time on July 12 at Accor Stadium.
Surely it should be presented to the winning team if they wrap up the series after game two to avoid the possibility of the champions losing the dead rubber and then having to force themselves to smile for the cameras after a defeat.
If Brad Fittler has any hope of remaining coach of the NSW side next year, repeating the same selection mistakes from the first two matches is not the way to go.
He’s been known to make mass changes in the past, most notably when he first took over in 2018 and the following year when he overhauled more than half the team after losing game one to produce a stunning win in Perth.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
It won’t happen but if the Blues cast aside past reputations at the selection table and went with a team for Origin III based purely on form, it could just be the revolutionary shock to the system that’s needed to take down Billy Slater’s marauding Maroons.
Slater shunned reputation-based selections prior to this series by picking Reece Walsh, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Tom Gilbert then Jeremiah Nanai ahead of Kalyn Ponga, Dane Gagai and Kurt Capewell and it kinda worked out alright for them.
Position by position, here’s how a solely form-based selection policy would shake out for NSW.
Fullback: James Tedesco has been the game’s No.1 fullback since Billy Slater’s retirement but his efforts for NSW have not been to his usual high standard.
Penrith’s Dylan Edwards, Parramatta skipper Clint Gutherson and Cronulla’s continually improving Will Kennedy have had better seasons among NSW eligible fullback candidates while Latrell Mitchell, Tom Trbojevic and Ryan Papenhuyzen are again injured.
Scott Drinkwater and Nick Meaney have also shone for the Cowboys and Storm respectively but Edwards would be the pick if the Blues went solely on form.
He’s been integral to Penrith’s back-to-back premierships, winning the Clive Churchill Medal last year, and despite not being the biggest of quickest fullback going around, he’s been the most effective.
Wings: Brian To’o is the best winger in the NRL so one spot is easy for NSW but on the other flank, Josh Addo-Carr is having a down year both with Canterbury and the Blues after being recalled following his controversial omission in 2022.
Meaney could be an option with To’o but Manly’s Reuben Garrick has been arguably one of the best wingers in the NRL this year – he’s a potent finisher, brilliant goal-kicker and able to make hard yards out of the backfield.
Centres: The only time NSW have picked two specialists in this position under Fittler was in his first series in 2018 when Mitchell, who was a Roosters centre back then, and James Roberts, during his final full season at the Broncos, lined up in all three games.
Trbojevic is out of the equation for Origin III with his torn pec while Stephen Crichton has not had much of an impact in his five appearances for the Blues since his debut last year.
Campbell Graham has been dominant for South Sydney for the past few seasons and is in career-best form while Kotoni Staggs deserves another chance based on his 2023 returns after he was picked and punted after one game last year.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Halves: Jarome Luai is trading on his past reputation as someone who is effective when Nathan Cleary is alongside him. Freddie kept the faith in him with Mitchell Moses as the chief organiser in Brisbane and the team floundered due to a lack of creativity in attack.
Moses or Nicho Hynes is a line-ball call for the No.7 jersey. Hynes is the reigning Dally M Medal winner but has not quite replicated that form this year while Moses has for the most part been the key to Parramatta’s recent success.
But if Fittler wants to try something different, Hynes deserves a shot, particularly after the shabby treatment he copped during and after Origin I.
Five-eighth is also down to a two-horse race between Cody Walker and Matt Burton. While his booming bombs could cause Queensland’s back three plenty of problems, Burton has not stood out in club footy in the past couple of months as the Bulldogs have shown little to no bite.
Walker cost himself any chance of selection in game two with an untimely thigh injury but his ability to conjure up line breaks is worth one last shot at Origin level.
Hooker: Reece Robson looks like the heir apparent to the No.9 jersey with Damien Cook the wrong side of 32. The Cowboys rake stood up to the task of starting on debut in Origin II and then playing the full 80 when Cook was needed out wide so with Api Koroisau still sidelined with his broken jaw, he’s worth another match with an eye to the future.
Warriors dummy-half Wayde Egan and Cronulla’s Blayke Brailey are also knocking on the door of representative honours.
Middle forwards: This is the one area where the top three options are the incumbents with Payne Haas, Isaah Yeo and Junior Paulo (reinstated to the starting side after the failed Tevita Pangai jnr experiment) more then earning their keep.
Liam Martin scores a try during game one. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Edge forwards: Liam Martin has overtaken his former Panthers teammate Viliame Kikau as the best second-rower in rugby league. It was lunacy to start him off the bench in both games behind Hudson Young and Tyson Frizell. Young bounced back in Origin II after a sub-par debut while Frizell has shown he’s not a spent force but Cameron Murray should also be starting.
Although not technically an edge forward, he should fill the same role as Reuben Cotter for Queensland – start in the second row and then shift into the middle when needed mid-game.
Bench: After he copped a barrage of criticism for playing Cook in the centres, Fittler claimed it was impossible to cover every position with four players on the bench.
Not true. It can be done but modern coaches mostly stick to a rigid policy of two props, a second-rower and a utility who can cover dummy half and be thrown into the backs if needed.
In the age of HIA checks and hookers who can play 80 minutes, the utility should be someone who could fill in any spot in the backline and also jump in at hooker at a pinch, not the other way around.
Gutherson is the best player who fits that prototype for the Blues. The Parramatta fullback has played at centre, wing and in the halves, and has the passing and defensive capabilities to take on the hooker’s workload if injury strikes.
As far as two props on the bench, Stefano Utoikamanu was only given 12 minutes on debut at Suncorp and although he’s been a shining light in a gloomy Wests Tigers season, Eels veteran Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Panthers bench weapon Spencer Leniu would bring more punch from the interchange.
Clint Gutherson. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
David Klemmer keeps piling on the metres pre and post contact in the NRL but Fittler has not been a fan of the Tigers veteran for a few years so it’s unlikely he’ll recall him now after a four-year Origin absence.
The edge forward on the bench should be a player who can be a game-changer rather than someone who can eat up big minutes.
South Sydney’s Keaon Koloamatangi’s season was interrupted by a two-month layoff with an ankle injury but he has made five line breaks in 11 appearances so he looks ready for the step up to Origin.
Haumole Olakau’atu could have been that player but some of his defensive lapses this season mean he would be targeted by the Maroons at this level, particularly close to the goal line.
1 Dylan Edwards
2 Reuben Garrick
3 Kotoni Staggs
4 Campbell Graham
5 Brian To’o
6 Cody Walker
7 Nicho Hynes
8 Payne Haas
9 Reece Robson
10 Junior Paulo
11 Cameron Murray
12 Liam Martin
13 Isaah Yeo
Interchange:
14 Clint Gutherson
15 Spencer Leniu
16 Keaon Koloamatangi
17 Reagan Campbell-Gillard
18 Wayde Egan