Last Saturday evening at GMHBA stadium was billed as the match of the round. The fifth placed Bombers faced a litmus test against the scratchy, yet ever-dangerous Cats. What transpired was a non-event, a 77-point demolition by the Cats. Geelong provided a not-so-subtle reminder that they have muscle to flex in season 2023.
The win pushed the Cats from eighth to fifth on the ladder with six home and away games remaining. Immediately post-game, the commentary around Geelong changed. The blue and white hoops are now included in the premiership conversation alongside Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Melbourne.
Why did the narrative around Geelong shift after their win against the Bombers? Firstly, their half-forward fleet was more productive than it has been all season. All-Australian Tyson Stengle finished with three goals and looked sharp, the hard running Brad Close finished with two goals and recruit Ollie Henry worked hard for his goal. Gryan Miers also continued his elite form with 26 disposals and a goal. When these four players play well, Geelong typically win.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Secondly, the Cats looked a lot tougher and more manic at stoppages. No one was more emblematic of this than Tom Atkins, who amassed 12 tackles and 28 disposals against the Bombers. Atkins’ intensity and ferocity at the contest was crucial to Geelong’s 2022 premiership and his role in the Cat’s midfield will be vital this September, particularly in the absence of the retired Joel Selwood.
Geelong also looked more stable defensively with the omission/management of Esava Ratugolea and the inclusion of premiership defender Jake Kolodjashnij. The Cats conceded only 28 inside 50s against the Bombers. Chris Scott and his coaching brigade will have a headache at the selection table regarding Ratugolea. Whilst Ratugolea has had a terrific season, Sam De Koning, Tom Stewart and Jake Kolodjashnij looked more in-sync without Ratugolea.
The Cats also have room for improvement. Patrick Dangerfield was substituted against the Bombers to protect his recovering ribs. Jeremy Cameron is coming back from a concussion induced absence. Ruckman Rhys Stanley has also just returned from injury. The currently injured Jed Bews and Cam Guthrie will also provide additional stability upon their availability for selection.
The Cats seem to be building towards the finals beautifully. However, their quest to finish in the top four seems over. Geelong currently sit a game and a half behind 4th placed Melbourne with six home and away matches remaining.
The AFL community will know whether Geelong is a legitimate premiership contender from the next four matches. This run of matches includes trips to the Gabba to play Brisbane and the MCG to play Collingwood, as well a match against Port Adelaide in Geelong.
Tom Hawkins, Patrick Dangerfield and Mitch Duncan. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
To win the flag from outside the top four, the Cats will need to be perfect in September. They will have to match the Bulldog’s feat of 2016 and win four games on the bounce against quality opposition. They will also have to potentially beat Port in Adelaide, Brisbane at the Gabba or Collingwood/Melbourne at the MCG throughout their September crusade.
History is piled against the Cats. It is notoriously difficult to win back-to-back premierships, particularly when a team does not finish in the top four.
If there is one team that can climb this mountain however, it is this Geelong side. They are experienced, well-coached and peaking towards the back end of the season. Importantly, the pre-finals bye will also give the ageing Cats a chance to reset before September kicks off.
No one doubts that the Cats can match it with any of the top four sides. The question will be whether they can win a grand final, preliminary final and semi final away from GMHBA stadium this September.
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