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There’s a sense of inevitability to Penrith becoming the first team in 40 years to win three straight premierships. But if a week is a long time in rugby league, a lot can happen over the final seven rounds and four playoff weekends to halt Ivan Cleary’s machine in its tracks.
The Panthers seem to have no natural predator in the NRL jungle at the moment.
They have cruised to a 12-5 this season to be at the top of the premiership ladder as the contenders enter the home straight.
Since the Penrith purple patch exploded at the start of 2020, their record in those four seasons stands at 71-13 with one draw in the regular season and 8-2 in the playoffs, including victories in the past two grand finals.
That’s an overall success rate north of 83%. Phenomenal.
This year’s dominance is reflected in the fact they lead the league in
>>> total runs per game (181.6 per game),
>>> metres (1599 – well clear of next-best Parra on 1504),
>>> tackle breaks (40.1 followed by daylight, then Brisbane 36.2),
>>> tackles in the opposition 20 with 36.5 (Tigers are somehow second with 31.9),
>>> completion rate (82%),
>>> kicks (22.8),
>>> attacking kicks (11.4),
>>> forced drop-outs (1.8),
>>> kick return metres (131, which is 14 clear of the field),
>>> line engagements (43.1),
>>> general play passes (124.5),
>>> points conceded (12.8, five points better than the Broncos),
>>> tries conceded (2.2),
>>> line breaks allowed (3.3)
>>> and running metres conceded (1314.4).
(stats via Fox Sports Lab)
Oh yeah, and their most influential player, Nathan Cleary, has been out for the past six weeks with a torn hamstring while their other NSW representatives have been rested after Origin the past two times and Penrith still won.
They’re all back this Sunday against Canterbury at Penrith. Pray for the Dogs.
There are eight realistic chances (some more so than others) among the finals contenders with varying degrees of hope about stealing the NRL crown from Penrith.
Nathan Cleary kicks the winning field goal in golden point to beat Newcastle. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
A red line was put through bottom-feeding trio Canterbury, St George Illawarra and Wests Tigers months ago while for everyone occupying positions 10-14, making the finals will be their best-case scenario, there will be no trophy being lifted by the Knights, Sea Eagles, Titans, Dolphins or Roosters this year.
The Roosters were rated second favourites for the title heading into the season but such has been their decline, their playoff streak dating back to 2016 is likely to end in what will only be the second time under coach Trent Robinson that they’ve finished among the also-rans since he began with a premiership bang a decade ago.
Who can bring down the Panthers? Here’s how the eight contenders stack up.
Brisbane have the clever playmaker in Adam Reynolds who has a history in picking apart Penrith’s few weaknesses from South Sydney’s upset playoff win in 2021 and narrow loss to them in that year’s grand final.
Reece Walsh gives them an extra attacking weapon, their outside backs have size and speed while their pack is one of the best credentialled to go up against Penrith.
However, they lack recent finals experience and their youthful five-eighth, Ezra Mam, will be targeted by the Cleary brains trust – he has missed more tackles than any player this season.
One of only two teams in the NRL who has beaten the Panthers more than twice in the past four seasons, including the 2020 Grand Final blitz which taught the young Panthers a lesson about the physicality required to land a trophy.
If Ryan Papenhuyzen gets back on the field in the next month and can expedite his comeback to top form before the finals, Melbourne are a puncher’s chance of upsetting the Penrith applecart such is the all-star quality of the rest of their spine in Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Their big but is their pack is not as imposing as it was a few years ago when they snatches the premiership from the Panthers’ clutches. Stopping the Penrith go-forward in the middle of the field is their biggest problem.
The Green Machine are the NRL’s enigma – they have a -55 differential despite winning five more games than they’ve lost.
This is the hallmark of a team that’s hot enough when they win but can be as cold as Canberra’s winter at other times.
The Raiders haven’t beaten Penrith since their run to the 2019 Grand Final and copped a 53-12 hiding at home earlier this season so don’t expect them to suddenly shock the premiers if they meet again in the finals.
Their last win over the Panthers was four years ago and the NRL’s biggest surprise packets of 2023 gave them a decent run for their money in Magic Round before going down 18-6 when a late Spencer Leniu try finally sealed the result.
The Warriors have a history of getting hot in the post-season in the few times they’ve made the finals over the course of their history but it seems unlikely they would have the firepower to match it with Penrith if they collide in September.
Not sure if you’ve seen this in the coverage about Cronulla in recent times but they struggle somewhat against top-eight opposition.
Their only win over Penrith in recent times was a one-point cliffhanger when Origin players were unavailable.
Cronulla host Penrith next week but will not be bringing the Mountain Men down to earth in 2023.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Parra have the reputation of being Penrith’s trickiest opponent given that they’ve lowered their colours four times in 10 meetings since 2020.
They added to that in Round 4 with a 17-16 triumph but their supposed suitability to stun their western Sydney rivals didn’t matter too much on Grand Final night last year when Penrith cantered to a 28-12 victory.
The Eels are a lesser side this year and with Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Maika Sivo joining Dylan Brown as suspended stars for the next few weeks, Brad Arthurs’ team could miss the finals altogether 12 months after going so close to breaking their 37-year premiership drought.
Here we are – the team with the best chance of toppling the premiers also happens to be just clinging onto a playoff spot with seven rounds remaining.
Their precarious position is more due to injuries and Origin commitments sidelining many of their best players in the past two months.
Souths beat a full-strength Penrith side in April and have the strongest side across the park that can challenge the premiers, when they have everyone fit.
Latrell Mitchell missing this Friday’s clash with Brisbane due to his nagging calf complaint is potentially a worrying sign but it could also be a blessing in disguise if it means he is fresh for the finals tilt.
The Bunnies can’t finish in the bottom half of the eight again and expect to go all the way but if they can finish with a wet sail to land in the top four, they are the team that Penrith least want to face in the finals.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
They can boast an active two-game winning streak against Penrith (yes, two games counts as a streak in relation to playing the Panthers).
However, there are asterisks needed – they won 27-23 last month when both sides were gutted by Origin duty and they thrashed the Panthers 38-8 in the final round of 2022 when Ivan Cleary gave almost his entire first-choice 17 a breather before the playoffs.
Prior to that the Cowboys lost four straight to the Panthers and three of those defeats were 20-point margins or worse.
Not this year for Todd Payten’s team.