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It wasn’t that long ago that the All Blacks appeared to be a waning force. They had been at the top since, well, forever and but the mask was slipping.
They lost six games in the 2021-2022 seasons including a home loss to Argentina. Ian Foster was on his way out. But somehow it has all changed. They’re now undefeated in nine and likely in eleven once Australia have been dispatched.
As sure as night follows day, the All Blacks somehow get into form just in time for the World Cup. So what have they done?
Well actually, we can explain almost all of it with just one period of play from their recent victory over the Springboks.
Before we dive into that though, let’s start with what wasn’t working before. Back in 2019 the All Blacks were bullied in their semi-final loss against England. It wasn’t the first time they’d lost in a semi-final of course but there was something different about this. They didn’t just lose, they were beaten in every area by England.
The English were able to run through the All Blacks and win that arm wrestle. That set in motion something that would be revisited throughout the next years. When Argentina beat them at home they did the same. 70 minutes in, with the game still in the balance, the Argentinian maul just ran through the All Black forwards, handing them a penalty. Ireland did the same as they won three times within a year. France did the same as they put 40 points on them in Paris.
It wasn’t just as simple as losing the power game, it was that the rest of their game plan fell away once that block was removed. People talk about the issue being that a number of crucial players were all hitting their old age at once. That may have been true, but the real issue is what that causes. In this case it was a lack of power.
Here we go, and it’s a kick. In fact, it’s a kick from first phase. Modern rugby is like chess – you want to think not just about what you’re doing next but what your opponent will do in response to that and what you will do in response to that. Why do the All Blacks kick here? Well, they have an attacking scrum in their own half.
It’s a good position to be in because South Africa have to respect the kick and so you immediately have an overlap. But in this case South Africa are trying to do two things at once; they have Makazole Mapimpi playing at half depth. That means that he can come up if the All Blacks go to the blindside or drop if they don’t. Then they have Willie Le Roux sweeping and Cheslin Kolbe up in the line. All that means the only true deep defender is Le Roux.
The All Blacks kick off first phase but after moving the ball wider and crucially that kick finds grass. They want to turn the Boks and then pen them in. If the kick doesn’t find grass then Le Roux has time to find space. One of two things will happen though thanks to the excellent kick. Either Le Roux will kick straight into touch short, and the All Blacks will exchange a scrum in their own half for a lineout in the Bok half – a nice gambit. The alternative is what happens, Le Roux kicks well but it’s long enough that the All Blacks can go quick and counter.
We will look at what happens when they counter in a moment but what does this simple attack tell us about the growth of the All Blacks? It’s indicative of a team who are playing what they see. First phase, a team without confidence would only see that as an attacking opportunity and even if the defence were set-up perfectly, they would go for it because they felt they needed to. A team with confidence sees that their opponents are set-up well to defend to run and so there is space elsewhere, in this case the kick over the top.
Playing against a team who can spot the right option and then execute it is a real challenge. It also shows a team who are patient and will wait for a better opportunity. A desperate team will jump at the first chance and ignore a better opportunity later. You’d forgive the All Blacks for being a desperate team given their recent results but they’re not.
With the exception of the pass to Aaron Smith, this is great counter attacking from Will Jordan. The plan is simple, we’ve created this opportunity, now we’re going for it. We’re not going to kick again, the first kick created this and now we feast. You can see how much disarray the Boks are in. They have the entire width of the field to defend against and that spreads them thin.
What is the bigger picture here though? We know that power might not be there and so what do you need to do instead? Remember Japan in 2015 and 2019, they lacked power but they made up for that by making the pitch wide by spreading the ball around and attacking the spaces between the players. A few years ago, New Zealand could play between the 15m lines and just bludgeon their way through defenders. They actually did that when they beat Wales last year as well – it works against weaker sides. No need to go wide, just power through and use the speed of recycle to keep marching forwards. Against a side like South Africa you can’t do that and so you need to widen that pitch.
That’s obvious of course, I’m not telling any of you anything new. But there is a big difference between knowing that’s what you need to do and being able to do it. Japan knew that was the way to beat the Boks in 2019 but they couldn’t do it because the Boks were better and as soon as they had the ball they just ran through the Japanese. The All Blacks are different because they can do it and they can change their game plan depending on who they are facing.
All that gives opportunities like this where the defence is isolated and now they can be picked off. This is the All Blacks running through the Boks defence but it’s not power, it’s guile. They are targeting the gaps in South Africa’s defence and going through it. It’s worth remembering though that this game plan will change depending on who the opponent is. When they can go through the defence they will. When they are overpowered they will do what they did against South Africa and create the space. That is the real danger they pose.
Finally, this isn’t a prediction. The All Blacks have quietly become a much better team than they were this time last year. However, they still have weaknesses and good teams will exploit them. But if you think they are the same struggling team as last year, they’re not!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.